Please leave anything you want to discuss in the comments section.
Another Freedom Shield exercise has been completed and has supposedly brought the ROK closer to taking over OPCON:
The United States and South Korea have wrapped up a major joint exercise focused on preparing Seoul to assume wartime operational control of allied forces. The 10-day Freedom Shield exercise, which ended Thursday, emphasized readiness for a potential transition in which South Korea would take the lead in defending the peninsula during a conflict, according to a joint news release from U.S. Forces Korea and South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.
The training also incorporated lessons from recent conflicts and aimed to improve the allies’ ability to respond quickly and effectively to complex security challenges, the release said. “As we prepare for the [operational control] transfer, this year’s [Freedom Shield] reaffirmed the common value of peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula shared between [South Korea] and the U.S.,” Gen. Jin Yong-sung, chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in the release.
You can read more at the link.
I will be very surprised if Japan agrees to send naval ships. Pacifism is still very ingrained in Japanese society. I think constitutionally they can do it if they only respond to being attacked first by Iran, but I suspect they will claim their constitution is why they can’t deploy ships:
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday expressed his expectation for Japan to “step up” to support the United States, as the U.S. military strives to keep the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route, open amid the ongoing war against Iran.
Trump made the remarks during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the White House, noting that Japan relies heavily on the waterway for its energy imports, and that the U.S. has provided defense support to the Asian country with thousands of American troops stationed there.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war has effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz, escalating concerns over its impact on oil prices and inflation. The waterway is responsible for about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
“I expect Japan to step up because … we have that kind of relationship, and we step up in Japan. We have 45,000 soldiers in Japan. We spent a lot of money on Japan,” he said. “I am not surprised that they would step up.”
You can read more at the link.
It is a bit weird that Taiwan is bringing up this issue now when South Korea says the labeling they have been using for Taiwan has been in place since 2004. Did the Taiwanese government just notice this now?:
Taiwan said Wednesday it has changed South Korea’s name in its immigration systems from “Korea” to “South Korea,” in a reciprocal move as Seoul continues to list it as “China (Taiwan)” on its e-arrivals despite its repeated calls for a “correction.”
Taiwan’s foreign ministry also warned that it will take further corresponding measures if it hears no positive response from Seoul by the end of this month.
The ministry said in a statement that the change took effect March 1, with the nationality of South Koreans on its foreign resident certificates now listed as “South Korea,” instead of “Korea.”
It said the measure came as a reciprocal measure, as Seoul has yet to “correct the inappropriate labeling” of the island state in its e-arrival card system.
You can read more at the link.
That is what this academic thinks will happen:
As Trump acts with open contempt for international law, China is taking notes. The Cuba model, in particular, offers a useful blueprint for Chinese President Xi Jinping to apply in pursuing his “historic mission” of “reunification” with Taiwan. This is a live demonstration of how a superpower can strangle a country into submission. (……)
For Cuba, which has long depended primarily on oil purchased from Venezuela and Mexico, Trump has exploited that vulnerability by imposing a complete blockade on fuel deliveries. Millions of people have lost access to electricity. Water-pumping stations have shut down. Tractors and delivery trucks sit idle, leading to food-price spikes, food shortages and rising hunger. Hospitals struggle to function amid intermittent blackouts.
The suffering is the point; it is the lever Trump is using to apply pressure to the regime, whose fall, Trump glibly maintains, is imminent.
For Xi, such a coercive siege of Taiwan might be more appealing than a full-scale amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait, which would be fraught with logistical challenges and likely draw in the US and Japan. Instead of firing missiles at Taipei or storming Taiwan’s beaches, China could declare a maritime quarantine or customs-inspection regime around the island, with Chinese coast-guard vessels stopping energy tankers bound for Taiwanese ports for “safety checks” or “anti-smuggling operations.” (……)
In Taiwan’s case, China could simply wait until the economic and humanitarian crisis that it created became severe enough to justify moving in to “stabilize the island” and “rescue its people.” As with Trump’s “friendly takeover,” which makes geopolitical coercion sound like corporate restructuring, the logic is that of a protection racket: create the problem, then step in to “solve” it.
All this could unfold under a shroud of legal ambiguity. While a formal naval blockade would be regarded as an act of war under international law, a quarantine or inspection regime could be presented as law enforcement, rather than military action. China’s government — which insists that Taiwan is a Chinese province, not a sovereign state — would likely portray maritime inspections as an internal matter of administrative enforcement.
Would Japan and the US risk war with a major nuclear power and the world’s second-largest military spender over actions portrayed as customs enforcement? Would they want to take responsibility for a crisis-stricken Taiwan? The answer may well be no, especially at a time when the US is hemorrhaging blood and treasure owing to Trump’s multiplying military adventures abroad.
Other countries would be even less likely to jump to Taiwan’s defense. Just as the US is using tariff threats to prevent third countries, such as Mexico, from providing oil to Cuba, China could leverage its central role in global trade and its chokehold on rare-earth supplies to deter opposition to a siege of Taiwan.
You can read more at the link, but the problem Cuba has is that they have no friends willing to help them. If China tries to blockade Taiwan will they attack American ships brought in to supply the island?
Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency Commissioner Park Jung-bo (left) inspects the setup of the stage being prepared for BTS’s comeback performance at Gwanghwamun Square at the National Museum of Korean Contemporary History in Jongno-gu, Seoul, Wednesday. (Yonhap)
This is the excuse the ROK appears to be going with on why they can’t help open the Strait of Hormuz:
Should Korea decide to send a mine countermeasure vessel to the Strait of Hormuz, just reaching the area could take three months or longer, military officials said, highlighting the operational challenges facing any potential naval deployment.
Officials familiar with the matter said that even if a decision is made, the timeline and preparation for getting assets into position would be shaped not only by the challenges of transit, but also by the difficulties of moving vessels through a high-risk environment.
While some have raised the possibility of redirecting the Cheonghae Unit — currently operating in the Gulf of Aden — to the Hormuz mission, the unit is not equipped with the mine-sweeping helicopters needed to safely operate in a mine-threat environment. Deploying a dedicated mine countermeasure vessel or an Aegis destroyer from a Korean port would therefore require a separate deployment process.
You can read more at the link, but if the ROK wanted to support Trump they would find a way to do it. The easiest way would be to say we can’t provide a countermine ship, but we can redeploy a ship on the anti-piracy mission to link up with U.S. Navy countermine ships to help patrol the Strait.
I have more respect for nations that just say participating in this war is not in their national interest. With UAE announcing that Korea is now their number one priority to export oil to there is no need for Korea to get involved in this.
