Is It Mission Accomplished?

This is definitely the best article I have read yet on the status of the Iraq War:

The great question in deciding whether to keep fighting in Iraq is not about the morality and self-interest of supporting a struggling democracy that is also one of the most important countries in the world. The question is whether the war is winnable and whether we can help the winning of it. The answer is made much easier by the fact that three and a half years after the start of the insurgency, most of the big questions in Iraq have been resolved. Moreover, they have been resolved in ways that are mostly towards the positive end of the range of outcomes imagined at the start of the project. The country is whole. It has embraced the ballot box. It has created a fair and popular constitution. It has avoided all-out civil war. It has not been taken over by Iran. It has put an end to Kurdish and marsh Arab genocide, and anti-Shia apartheid. It has rejected mass revenge against the Sunnis. As shown in the great national votes of 2005 and the noisy celebrations of the Iraq football team’s success in July, Iraq survived the Saddam Hussein era with a sense of national unity; even the Kurds—whose reluctant commitment to autonomy rather than full independence is in no danger of changing—celebrated. Iraq’s condition has not caused a sectarian apocalypse across the region. The country has ceased to be a threat to the world or its region. The only neighbours threatened by its status today are the leaders in Damascus, Riyadh and Tehran. [Bartle Bull, Prospect Magazine]

Make sure to read the entire article, especially his reporting on Sadr.  I will remain skeptical about Sadr until he shows otherwise, but it is quite clear that Iraq is reaching a tipping point or has already reached a tipping point and we just don’t know it yet.  That doesn’t mean things are going to be easy from here on out because Al Qaeda still isn’t finished and a final confrontation with the Mahdi Army has yet to occur, so there are plenty of challenges left.  However, trends are definitely pointing towards a sustainable Iraq. 

I recommend further reading on this over at Milblogs.