Could Kim Jong-nam Be Beijing’s Future Man In Pyongyang?
Dennis Halpin at NK News has a long article about how the Chinese could turn to Kim Jong-un’s half brother, Kim Jong-nam to lead North Korea if they tire of Jong-un’s antics. It is a good read about Kim Jong-nam if you don’t know much about him, but it seems installing him with a palace coup would be tough to do in North Korea:
Kim Jong Nam, despite a globetrotting playboy image which has seen him periodically surface in Southeast Asian watering holes in Indonesia and Malaysia, has voiced criticisms of his younger brother similar to those espoused by his own student son. Kim Jong Nam reportedly emailed a Japanese journalist in 2012 a prediction that “the Kim Jong Un regime will not last long.” He has also voiced support for economic restructuring, stating that “without reforms, North Korea will collapse,” which would be music to the ears of the leadership in Beijing. Kim Jong Nam’s close familial ties to his purged uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who was widely seen as Beijing’s point man in Pyongyang, would also likely earn him kudos among the Chinese leadership facing a quandary of what to do about North Korea. The question is how to preserve a reliable buffer state against American influence in South Korea while curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs which increasingly threaten regional stability. Kim Jong Nam, despite his bad boy image, would likely prove far more pliant than his disagreeable and defiant little brother. [NK News]
You can read the rest at the link, but I look at Kim Jong-nam more likely taking power if a regime collapse scenario was to happen and the Chinese intervened and needed to get a new leader quickly in place. Kim Jong-nam could then open up the country following the Chinese model becuase Kim Jong-nam does not have any human rights violation, crimes against humanity, or any other excess baggage hanging over his head if he decides to open up the country and the reality of the North Korean gulags becomes public. He can blame it all on the old regime and vow that he is working on fixing the problems the old regime created. This may be enough to get world leaders to except him and work to drop sanctions and offer financial assistance in exchange for ending their nuclear program.
Those are just some quick thoughts I have, does anyone else see any other scenario that Kim Jong-nam could take power?
Kim Jong Nam is thought be a moderate. That is why I doubt China will favor him. China will want a leader who will keep the political and economic status in North Korea, except for the pursuing of nuclear weapons. And under Kim Jong Nam’s rule, North Korea could collapse due to rapid liberalization. That’s the last thing China wants, a peaceful reunification of Korea’s under South Korean terms. Instead, China will probably favor a pro-China general in the North Korean military who can still keep a tight ship in North Korea.
That China has been keeping Jong-nam as a hedge to install as a North Korean leader when the need arises is sometime I’ve said here a few times before.
Installing puppet rulers is what empires like China have been doing for millennia, so I’m sure that if they do decide to place him they will have already profiled and vetted him. He seems like the malleable type with many vices. They know all his secrets and weaknesses.
I’m sure he can be made to align with China’s interests much more than his brother has.
I agree with @JoeC that Kim Jong-nam is protected by China as a hedge strategy. If the Kim regime was on the verge of collapse the Chinese may come to the rescue with the condition that Kim Jong-nam be installed by the military to begin Chinese style economic reforms. If the Chinese can get North Korea to economically reform this would mean less aid they would have to provide to keep the country afloat year after year. Focusing on economic reform means that Kim Jong-nam would not launch provocations which would also make China happy so they would not have to deal with the international headaches that Kim Jong-un is causing.
Yes, that might happen sooner if it looks like the GOP is going to win in November…
“COULD KIM JONG-NAM BE BEIJING’S FUTURE MAN IN PYONGYANG?”
I am going to have to go with a NO on this.
@Chickenhead, well one thing is correct, Kim Jong-nam is now back in North Korea he is just not alive any more.