Former USFK Commander Says That US Military Needs to Prepare for North Korean Regime Collapse
I am all for North Korea regime collapse planning, but does that mean that US forces need to be the ones entering North Korea?:
Instability within North Korea will lead to its collapse “sooner than many of us think,” a former U.S. Forces Korea commander says.
Retired four-star Gen. Walter Sharp was among five panelists Tuesday who opened a three-day symposium, sponsored by the Association of the U.S. Army’s Institute of Land Warfare, on strengthening land forces across the Pacific.
North Korea garnered most of the panel’s attention, driven by the volatile nation’s uptick in missiles launches and its fourth nuclear test earlier this year.
Sharp, who headed USFK in 2008-11, said he recently guaranteed Gen. Vincent Brooks, the newly minted USFK commander, there would be major changes on the peninsula before his tenure ends. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but I have longed believed that US soldiers should not step foot into North Korea despite recommendations previously made that 150,000 US troops would be needed to secure North Korea. Considering the advantages in culture and language the ROK military has why can’t they be the ones to occupy North Korea? North Koreans are programmed to believe that South Koreans are puppets of the Americans and if US forces are seen with ROK forces in North Korea this will just validate this belief. Does the US military really want to occupy a country with a bitter population awash in weapons and explosives? Plus the threat of 150,000 US troops entering North Korea is the reason why China keeps the Kim regime in power in the first place. What would the US government think if 150,000 Chinese soldiers showed up on our border with Mexico?
I just do not see how 150,000 US soldiers showing up in a collapsed North Korean state benefits the ROK, North Korea and most importantly the United States? Maybe I am missing something, but can anyone else make an argument why there needs to be a US military occupation of North Korea?
I agree with you. South Korean troops should be the ones to be the occupying force in any North Korean regime collapse scenario. Having to control a populace that has been brought up to hate Americans and having a force that does not understand the language and culture would be a nightmare. In a scenario such as this, the U.S. should provide logistical and perimeter security support only. This will have the added benefit of keeping the Chinese out of the conflict.
Red Phoenix Burning is just fiction, right?
https://www.amazon.com/Red-Phoenix-Burning-Larry-Bond-ebook/dp/B019HR9C3C
“North Koreans are programmed to believe that South Koreans are puppets of the Americans and if US forces are seen with ROK forces in North Korea this will just validate this belief.”
If North Korea collapses – it will effectively cease to exist as nation and the decades of anti-American propaganda that the would be former North Koreans had been fed will no longer mean anything. It only matters if North Korea is still a country and the Kim family is in control and blocking knowledge of the outside world.
And even if there were 150K US troops helping out in what was the former North Korea … so what? Western NGOs from around the world would be sending in people to help, not to mention there would be hundreds of thousands of South Koreans helping out and the South Korean government would be in charge. Assuming they would even have the time or mental energy to think about Americans – It would quickly become clear to any former North Korean that all that propaganda they had been fed all those years was nothing but a bunch of BS.
The real discussion should be about the Chinese – because they have their own OPLAN for a North Korean collapse – and before the first plane load of additional US troops even got a warning order to deploy – the Chinese could easily and quickly mobilize a few million “volunteers” and already have them on the ground.
Given our relatively low staffing levels on the peninsula (28.5K, IIRC), I think it would be better for the ROK to be the occupying force in the event of a NK regime collapse. In such an event, our only justification for bringing in reinforcements would be if a third party (China or Russia) intervened, or if the ROK asked for additional U.S. forces to help maintain security and stability.
“I think it would be better for the ROK to be the occupying force in the event of a NK regime collapse.”
I don’t think it’s even a subject worth debating because the ROKs wouldn’t in a million years consider allowing another country to lead this operation.
@Guitard, I heard the same thinking in OIF1, that we would be treated as liberators. I was there we were not treated as liberators. To think we can roll into North Korea with 150,000 US troops and North Koreans indoctrinated for life to hate us are going to welcome us I believe is a poor planning assumption. Even North Korean defectors in the ROK have said how much of hard time they have had with overcoming the life long indoctrination of hating Americans.
Plus 150,000 US troops entering North Korea ensures that the Chinese will either keep the Kim regime afloat or the DPRK is going to become a Special Administrative Region of China backed by Chinese troops until they can a new regime in power to replace the Kims that is friendly to China. From the Chinese perspective why would they want 150,000 US troops in North Korea?
Assuming we could amass such a force (highly unlikely), I seriously doubt 150K US troops would go into North Korea. And if you read that RAND report closely – it doesn’t actually say where the 150K troops would go, only that they would need that many. With regard to going into North Korea, It only says the US would want to secure the WMD and nukes. That would only require SF teams. The other US troops might stop at the border. I guess you’d have to get access to OPLAN 5029 to really know what the plan is.
@Guitard- Only require SF teams? No, not at all. Not at all. The only reason the U.S. would go into North Korea is to secure the WMD sites, something the ROK’s have said they don’t have the technology to do. It will take far more than a few SF teams to secure these sites with the numerous tunnels. We’ve practiced that while I was stationed in the ROK 3-4 years back.
As far as not in a million years? They seem hesistant to take operational control during peacetime, are they going to change their minds if the regime collapses? Who knows.
I meant initially securing the sites in terms of making sure that nothing is deployed from them – that’s something that has be done within a matter of a day (or two at most). Any longer and who knows what will be left? Actually, providing full perimeter type security would require large numbers of follow-on conventional forces – something the ROKs could manage on their own. Disabling the WMDs will require nuclear disablement teams and technical escort units. I doubt that the ROKs have nuclear disablement teams; the US Army only has two.
Practically speaking, the SF units in Okinawa are best positioned for the initial mission of getting to the sites first. Having said that – it might come down to trying the beat the ROK SF teams to see who can get their first. It’s generally understood at USFK that the ROKs have their own plans for certain missions that they will execute outside of the Combined Forces Command construct.