Experts Believe North Korea Will Have Operational Road-Mobile ICBM In the 2020+ Timeframe

If North Korea continues with their heavy flight testing schedule this seems like it could be a realistic estimate:

North Korea’s missile launch was a “partial success” that suggests the provocative country could have a road-mobile ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by early next decade, a U.S. think tank says.

After failing in four previous tries, the North fired back-to-back Musudan missiles in just over two hours Wednesday. The first was considered another failure, but the second flew 620 to 880 miles high before falling into the Sea of Japan.

The actual distance traveled — 250 miles — was well short of its potential range that would put it within range of Japan and U.S. bases in the region. Experts said the missile was fired at a high angle to avoid provoking Japan, but the ability to achieve that altitude shows that the North Koreans are making technical progress.

The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, in its 38north.org blog, called the test a “partial success.” But it noted that six tests since mid-April despite repeated failures suggest the Musudan is not the North’s long-term focus.

“This isn’t so much an engineering program so much as an exercise in tossing a coin or rolling a die until it comes up with the result they like,” analyst John Schilling wrote in Thursday’s post.

However, he said, it was the first time the Musudan’s engine, which is shared by North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, was flight tested. Previous tests either crashed or exploded prematurely.

“This partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade,” he said.
“We still don’t expect them to have those missiles operational before 2020, but early flight testing by that date is increasingly likely,” he added.  [Stars & Stripes]

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