Stephen Haggard Sees Recent Defections As Sign of Possible Regime Collapse
|It would be interesting to know if the recent defection of a North Korean diplomat also included the confiscation of regime funds:
Defection by North Korean diplomats who have access to foreign currency holdings would make it harder for North Korea to bring in money from abroad which can eventually hasten the communist regime’s collapse in the event of a financial crisis, a renowned U.S. scholar said Monday.
The analysis by Stephen Haggard, professor at the University of California San Diego, reflects the speculation of growing instability in North Korea, as seen by recent defections of North Korean overseas workers who had played a part in repatriating hard currency to the cash-strapped regime.
Last week, the South Korean government confirmed that a London-based senior North Korean diplomat defected to the South with his family, which can be viewed as another sign of cracks in the North’s ability to keep its key people in check.
Seoul did not confirm whether the diplomat, Thae Yong-ho, brought foreign currency with him, but news reports said his escape may have dealt a blow to North Korea’s overseas earnings because he reportedly may have had knowledge of the foreign exchange operations of the Kim Jong-un regime in Europe.
In April, a group of 13 North Korean employees working at a North Korean state-run restaurant in China defected to South Korea en mass, spawning speculations that the sanctions-squeezed North Korean elite were feeling the pinch of United Nations’ sanctions on the communist country and opting to bolt.
“Historically, I’ve never thought of the collapse of North Korea in terms of political collapse, but I believe in the scenario … with respect to the possibility of financial crisis,” the professor said in a seminar arranged by the East Asia Foundation in Seoul.
North Korea’s thinning foreign currency income, caused by UN-imposed trade bans and the shutdown of its inter-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex, left the country vulnerable to the possibility of a “sudden” financial crisis that can lead to a subsequent regime collapse, he said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but as Mr. Haggard points out in the article as long as China continues to not impose UN sanctions on North Korea the Kim regime will likely continue to survive.
I don’t know… All my life, DPRK’s Regime Collapse has been Imminent. No money, not supported by the people, Kim Il Sung died, Kim Jong Il died, the USSR has pulled out support, the Chinese have pulled out support, etc. Yet somehow the Kim Family still keeps plugging away.
I want them to collapse, since mom-in-law is from some little village on the east coast, a little ways north of Sokcho, and I know she wants to see her home town again before she dies. Doubt if she remembers much, she was only 5 or so at the time.
We’ve squeezed them down so tight that they are used to working on a shoestring. Not sure how a “Sudden Financial Crisis” could actually come about. Not saying we should let them build up to a bigger income to knock them down and force a collapse, but it’s hard to take things from someone who has nothing.
The old joke: I hate it when homeless people shake their money cans at me. I get it. You have more money than I do. No need to be a diick about it.
@MTB Rider, as long as the Chinese continue to support the Kim regime I just don’t see them collapsing. If the Chinese were to close border trade and stop oil shipments I don’t think the Kims would last very long. However, a non-Kim regime run North Korea is not in China’s interest. Making it in China’s interest to see the Kims go is the only way I see the Kim regime being replaced. Whatever scenario that would be I would think in all of them the Chinese government would demand the removal of USFK.
I know the Chinese have Fatty’s oldest brother tucked away safely in a casino in Macau. The heir that became a spare…
Anyways, if Jong Un were to stumble down a flight of stairs and the guards were to try and check his fall with a barrage of 7.62x39mm rounds, would the Family welcome Kim Jong Nam back with open arms? Daddy Jong Il was the one mad at him, not necessarily the rest of the fam.
Once the North falls, China can demand all day, but it will be the U.S. and the potentially reunified Korea that would make that call. With China encroaching on Korea’s fishing and other resource rich waters, would the new country really want the U.S. to just wander off like a new 2LT?
Nobody wants a North Korean collapse.
For this reason, it is better for everyone to secretly prop up North Korea even if they openly piss and moan.
Even America props up North Korea in its own way…
…but that benefits America as well…
…as those big defense contracts don’t come rolling in if there is no enemy.
@Chickenhead, I have always joked that Boeing, Lockheed and Raytheon should send Kim Jong-un gift baskets every Chuseok because of how much defense money he drives towards their companies.
Can’t get rid of USFK until they sign a peace treaty… Which means the Kims no longer exist…
Nothing identifies someone faster as a bull5h1tter then when they utter something is hinting at or may leader to “regime collapse” in reference to the DPRK. :hmm:
Damnit I hate when I have a typo and I don’t spot it until after I click “Post Comment” and I see that little progress bar moving signaling that it’s too late. 👿
WTF are you trying to say, Smokes?
That isn’t just a simple typo.
Do you trip and fall head first into Tbones glue, paint, and solvent collection?