What If the Hideyoshi Invasion of Korea Had Never Happened and the Japanese Invaded the Philippines Instead?

GIKorea | November 8, 2016 | Japan | 3 Comments

Via a reader tip to the archive for the US Naval War College Review, I ended up reading an interesting article about how the failed Toyotomi Hideyoshi invasion of Korea from 1592-1598 may have stopped his plans of conquering the Philippines. According to the article the Spanish rulers of the Philippines had problems with Japanese pirates known as “wako” and soon stories of the wealth in the Philippines from these pirates got back to Hideyoshi who had recently unified Japan under his rule:

The Japanese landing on Busan

The earliest written mention of fears of a Japanese invasion in the broadest sense of the word appears in a Memorial to the Council of 1586, in which there is specu- lation within Manila that the Japanese wakō might have greater ambitions beyond mere plunder: they “make a descent almost every year, and, it is said, with the intent of colonizing Luçon [Luzon].”3 That never happened, but in 1591 the first proper invasion scare began when the Philippines entered the consciousness of Toyotomi Hideyoshi (1536–98). By means of a series of brilliant military cam- paigns, Hideyoshi had reunified Japan after the chaos of a century of civil war, and he now set his mind on overseas expeditions. The addition of the Philippines to his megalomaniac aims was credited to a certain “Farandaquiemon [Faranda Quiemon]—a Japanese of low extraction,” who induced Hideyoshi “to write in a barbarous and arrogant manner to the governor, demanding submission and tribute, and threatening to come with a fleet and troops to lay waste the country.” [US Naval War College Review]

According to the article the Japanese soldiers were not interested in attacking Korea because it was a poor country compared to the wealth they believed the Philippines had:

There was also a possible motive, because “[i]n Japon there is universal talk of the abundance of gold in this land. On this account, the soldiers are anxious to come here; and are coming, as they do not care to go to Core [Korea], which is a poor country.”

The Spanish sent an ambassador to Japan that met with Hideyoshi and explained to them the might of the Spanish Empire around the world. Hideyoshi was apparently not very impressed, but instead of focusing on invading the Philippines he attacked Korea first:

The Philippines remained on high alert for four years after Harada’s visit, and during that time the Spanish authorities closely monitored Hideyoshi’s military expedition against Korea. It was launched during the summer of 1592 and rapidly changed from being a blitzkrieg success to a long and painful retreat. The Korean campaign revealed a major Japanese weakness in naval warfare and support, and one of the main reasons for Japan’s eventual defeat was that the Korean navy severed Japan’s lines of communication between Busan and the Japanese island of Tsushima.21 The encouraging lesson was not wasted on Manila. If Hideyoshi could not control the Tsushima Strait, how could he ever contemplate sending an invasion fleet as far as Luzon?

As his Korean incursion dragged on, Hideyoshi grew increasingly suspicious concerning the activities of Portuguese and Spanish missionaries in Japan. An active persecution of Christianity followed, and Japan’s first martyrs died in February 1597. One of them, Fray Martin of the Ascension, wrote a letter to the governor of the Philippines as he was on his way to his execution. It includes what he had heard about Hideyoshi’s intentions toward the Philippines. “It is said that next year he will go to Luzon, and that he does not go this year because of being busy with the Coreans.”22 Martin also commented on the invasion route, whereby “he intends to take the islands of Lequios and Hermosa [Ryukyus and Taiwan], throw forces from them into Cagayan, and thence to fall upon Manila, if God does not first put a stop to his advance.”

The rest of the article goes on to describe other failed schemes by the Japanese to invade the Philippines during the years of the Tokugawa dynasty. However the article concludes that Hideyoshi likely had the best opportunity to conquer the Philippines had he not focused on Korea:

Of the three schemes for invading the Philippines between 1593 and 1637, the vast armies at Hideyoshi’s disposal in his 1593 plan could well have succeeded against the meagre garrison of Manila had he not been humiliated already in Korea by a woeful lack of naval support. Two seaborne attempts against Taiwan in 1609 and 1616 were also failures, and an annexation of the Ryukyus in 1609 was to be contemporary Japan’s only overseas gain.

So how different would East Asia have looked if the Japanese were successful in capturing the Philippines instead of invading Korea?

It seems to me it would have caused a major war with Spain because I doubt they would have sat back and let the Japanese hold onto to the Philippines. Considering Spain’s naval might they would have been able to deny the Japanese resupply by sea and eventually recaptured the Philippines. I think Spain then would have brought the war to Japan and devastated any remaining naval capability they had and likely loot various port cities until they were satisfied they had gotten enough revenge against the Japanese.

I think the aftermath of such a war with Spain would have caused the invasion of Korea to never happen. Would Korea’s course of history have been significantly changed by this course of events?