ROK Drop Book Review: The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Review

I like reading geopolitical forecasts especially ones involving Northeast Asia which is what made “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” an interesting read for me.  The book was written by strategist and founder of STRATFOR, George Friedman back in 2008.  The book makes predictions about countries around the world, but here is what he predicts for Northeast Asia in the near term.

Friedman believes that China’s rise will eventually end due to a massive economic recession caused by decades of bad bank loans similar to what happened to Japan and Korea in the 90’s.  The economic fallout will cause deep seated economic inequities to rise to the surface and create political instability in China.  Unlike Japan and Korea that had the social cohesion to implement difficult reforms after their banking crisis, the Chinese government will instead mobilize nationalism and blame foreigners for all their economic troubles.  This will ultimately fail and Friedman predicts the Communist party will be overthrown leaving China possibly a fractured country by the 2020’s.  Considering it is 2016 today I just don’t see the prediction of Communist Party losing power in the 2020’s coming true.

For the Korean peninsula Friedman believes unification will come in the 2020’s.  He foresees the Kim regime collapsing, but does not predict a major war breaking out.  I believe that as long as the Communist party remains in power in China the likelihood of North Korea seeing regime collapse will remain low.  Friedman though believes a unified Korea will be strong, but not as strong as Japan.  Friedman predicts that Russian power will collapse and fracture the country at the same time that Japan is on the rise.  To maintain Japan’s rise it will occupy territories in the Russian Far East that broke away from Russia for its resources.  Japan will greatly expand their naval power to challenge the United States Navy for control of the Pacific Ocean around Japan.  I have a hard time believing Japan would have the domestic political will to occupy parts of Russia considering the public’s deep memory of World War II.

As Friedman gets into the 2050s this is were he gets into the realm of science fiction.  He believes the US will have orbiting “battle stars” in space with manned crews.  These battle stars will have spaced based weapons that will allow the US military to control space.  Friedman believes that today’s US power is centered around the control of the seas where in the future the control of space is what will be the center of US power.  I believe this is in fact true, but I don’t know if manned battle stars is the way the US will control space.  The battle stars Friedman believes will allow the US military to drastically reduces its manpower size.  What manpower that is left for infantry duty will be equipped with battle suits that will make heavy weapons such as tanks obsolete.  Considering the advances in robotics and exoskeletons we are seeing today this doesn’t seem that far fetched.

He believes that tensions between Japan and the United States will grow to the point that Japan launches a sneak attack against the US battle stars and destroys them thus eliminating the US’s advantage in space.  The attack on the battle stars will then be followed by conventional attacks on US military bases by the Japanese to minimize the US military’s ability to counterattack Japan.  Much like with the attack on Pearl Harbor during World War II, the Japanese are going to hope that the successful attack causes the US to agree to terms favorable to the Japanese that solidifies their dominance in Asia.

While the Japanese and the US are battling, Turkey will join with Japan to attack the Polish empire.  Friedman believes that by the 2050’s Poland will be the powerful hegemon of Eastern Europe.  While battling the Japanese, the US will similarly help the Poles they are allied with to battle the Turks on the ground in Eastern Europe.  The US and its allies ultimately succeed and win the third World War and Friedman believes this will spur a technological and economic Golden Age for the United States in the 2060’s and 2070’s.  The Golden Age will end in the 2080’s when the US will have a showdown with Mexico over control of the American Southwest which by then will be a majority ethnic Mexican population.  Friedman believes that by the 2080’s Mexico will be a world power and by then have the confidence to challenge the United States to regain the American Southwest.  The US military may be called to conduct counterinsurgency operations in places such like Los Angeles.

Conclusion

Who knows if any of what is predicted in this book will come true, but Friedman’s analysis makes constant references to past historical trends to help support his predictions which I found interesting.  The first part of the book I thought was the most believable because you can see some of his predictions coming true.  However, the last half of the book as I said before is in the realm of science fiction so it was not as believable.  In fairness, trying to predict that far out is pretty difficult.  For example could someone after the American Civil War have predicted the nations and military technology used during World War II accurately?  Looking one hundred years out is a difficult proposition for any analyst; regardless the book is a good read for those who enjoy informed geopolitical analysis.