It still amazes me that despite all the evidence to the contrary people still think North Korea will denuclearize if the US just makes the right deal:
Joel Wit, editor of the website 38 North, enters a Geneva hotel for talks with North Korean officials on Nov. 17, 2016. (Yonhap)
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump should use his seasoned negotiating skills to cut a deal with North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs, a U.S. expert Tuesday said after rare talks with a group of senior diplomats from the communist nation.
Joel Wit, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s US-Korea Institute and founder of the website 38 North, made the suggestion in an article to the Atlantic magazine after returning from three days of meetings with North Korean diplomats in Geneva last week.
Wit called for opening negotiations with Pyongyang, saying that the North Korean nuclear issue, one of the biggest problems facing the incoming administration, might also be his biggest opportunity.
“Donald Trump could have an opportunity early in his presidency, if he follows his instincts instead of all the wrong advice he is likely to get on how to deal with North Korea, to prove his Promethean negotiating skills on one of the most serious national-security challenges the United States will confront over the next four years,” he said in the article written jointly with Richard Sokolsky, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
During campaigning, Trump expressed a willingness to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying there is nothing wrong with talking, Wit said. However, the incoming leader appears, like his predecessors, appears to “want to dump the North Korean problem into China’s lap,” he said. (…….)
“No one believes that the North will agree to give up all its nuclear weapons and related infrastructure and abandon its development of ICBMs and missiles,” Wit said. “But there is a great deal that can be done to freeze and then maybe eventually reverse these programs, bringing the world closer to that ultimate objective.” [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but Mr. Wit can count me as one of the people who are non-believers in North Korea ever denuclearizing. Considering what Kim Jong-un has seen happened to other leaders (i.e.: Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi) in recent years that did not have nuclear weapons why would he ever consider giving up his? The best the US could hope for is a nuclear development freeze which would only last until the North Koreans found some reason to break the deal long after they received whatever benefits they negotiated for. This is historically what they have done and blamed the US each time they broke the deal.
What in the nature of the Kim regime has changed to think that they will act in any other way this time?
First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to those lucky enough to have turkey to eat.
Second, I have always been of the opinion that north Korea should not be trusted. However, we have an historic opportunity with Donald Trump being the first non-political President and a savvy negotiator to try to engage north Korea rather than continuing to play the brinkmanship game with them. Trump has no political baggage and nobody in the political establishment expects much of him so I say, let him try to engage with Kim Jong-Un. Take Kim a Happy Meal and have a talk with him. What could it hurt? If he fails, no great woop but if he succeeds he drives a stake further into the hearts of those died-in-the-wool politician in Washington who say that he has no business being there in the first place. I am all for that!
Need to avoid playing Pyongyang’s game. The UN is at war with North Korea, not just the USA. And South Korea needs to be at the table, too. Wit appears to be a dupe or a shill for Fatty Kim.
@Tagum City Tim, the best deal Trump could work out is a temporary nuclear freeze by the North Koreans. I have not heard one plausible theory yet on why the Kim regime would denuclearize and declare peace in our time. Just getting the nuclear freeze would require significant concessions as the North Koreans have already hinted at wanting a peace treaty with the US. A peace treaty would then help lead to their ultimate goal of USFK withdrawal. No USFK and an arsenal nuclear weapons gives the North Koreans a much stronger hand than they currently have a against the ROK.
As far as meeting with Kim, Trump should not travel to North Korea and give the Kim regime a propaganda windfall. If Kim wants to talk he should first go to South Korea like his father had previously promised a future inter-Korean summit would be held and talk with the South Korean leader first.
ChickenHead
8 years ago
Questions:
1. What does America really honestly truly want from North Korea?
2. What more can actually be done to North Korea (that won’t back them into a dangerous corner)?
3. What can/will North Korea do that is a bigger problem than just letting them do whatever they are doing (as long as they do it within their own borders)?
4. Is a North Korean ability to deliver nuclear bombs around the world by ICMB something that should (or can) be addressed now or is it better to let it play out a bit longer and then take harsh action (perhaps after setting clear limits and consequences).
Side Note: Saddam and Gaddafi both gave up their WMDs and got punished for it. Certainly North Korea observed this.
Bonus Queation: Is it even conceivable for North Korea to give up nuke and ICBM programs?
I would like to see Trump work out some type of deal that re-starts the joint efforts with north Korea to recover the remains of our troops still unaccounted for from the Korean War. There are around 4,000 sets of remains still in the DPRK and we need a surge effort to recover and identify as many as possible before the remaining siblings of the missing die off. The remains recovery effort in the DPRK was “temporarily” suspended over a decade ago by the Bush Administration. In the past, the US has tried to keep the negotiations over remains recovery separate from other issues, but time is running out and we need a new strategy so we can bring closure to more families.
To our esteemed leader GIKorea – I believe that nK is getting a lot of pressure from China behind the scenes to open up substantially as China has done. Perhaps the time has come for nK to open up to the West. You can see China’s irritation in the fact that they have agreed, albeit begrudgingly, to support the latest sanctions against nK. It only took the U.S. two months to crack that nut. Opening up to the West would allow Fatty Kim to be able to go to the Pyongyang McDonald’s and pig out! Kimchi burgers for everybody! Hehehe. Seriously though, I am eager to see if Trump can use his “Art of the Deal” skills successfully on such a tough opponent as Kim III.
CH – I see where you are going with your line of questioning. The first question on your list is very telling. The U.S. has always been negotiating on behalf of South Korea. Up until the point where the Fatty Kim regime actually accomplished some limited ICBM technology (which is still far from being proven to really work other than shooting missiles off into space and littering the ocean with the debris) the U.S. had no real interest in nK other than keeping them from attacking South Korea or Japan (both of which would be a stupid idea without the support of the Chinese).
I believe Fatty Kim sees an opportunity to negotiate with Trump allowing his regime to remain in power and get some of the benefits of opening up to the West as China did under Deng Xiaoping.
Denny
8 years ago
Even if Trump signed a peace treaty with NK in return for NK denuclearization, NK would still keep nukes hidden behind the UN’s backs.
And then again, there’s this: “They had certain characteristics by which they could be detected, such as the absence of a pulse or heartbeat and the inability to bleed. Most of the aliens, in particular the lowest-ranking members or workers in green jumpsuits, were emotionless and had deformed little fingers which could not move and were bent at an unnatural angle, although there were “deluxe models” who could manipulate this finger.” http://tinyurl.com/hcbwjj7
@Mike, I think most people would agree with restarting the search for remains would be a good thing. However, a cost benefit analysis has to be done. For example how much should we pay the Kim regime for the return of one remain? If a million per remain was paid to the regime and they returned two hundred remains that would be $200 million of foreign currency going straight into the regime’s coffers to aid their nuclear and missile programs.
It also complicates US efforts to get other countries to end financial deals with the Kim regime if the US is giving them large sums of money for the return of the remains.
The North Koreans know exactly where most of the remains are and have been stockpiling them just waiting for the right price to turn them over:
@Chickenhead, like I have said many times before I cannot think of a reason why the Kim regime would give up their nuclear and missile programs considering what they have seen happened to other regimes in recent years that did not have these programs.
So the best Trump could do is get a freeze in these programs through negotiations. The question then becomes how many nuclear weapons and delivery systems should the North Koreans be allowed to keep and how to enforce compliance? Especially with such a secretive country known for cheating on prior agreements. This doesn’t seem like negotiations that Trump will prioritize any time soon.
@Tagum City Tim, I have no doubt that China would prefer a much less troublesome North Korea without nuclear weapons. However, the alternative of a collapsed North Korean state that would cause a massive refugee problem with potential reunification with the South that is host to US troops is less appealing alternative.
China will begrudgingly agree to sanctions, but actually enforcing them is a different issue all together. The Chinese regime will never enforce sanctions that will lead to regime collapse.
As far as North Korea opening up to Chinese style reforms, that idea pretty much ended with the firing squad Kim Jong-un’s uncle found himself in front of a few years back. Kim and his inner circle know opening the country to Chinese style reforms would ultimately end their regime.
First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to those lucky enough to have turkey to eat.
Second, I have always been of the opinion that north Korea should not be trusted. However, we have an historic opportunity with Donald Trump being the first non-political President and a savvy negotiator to try to engage north Korea rather than continuing to play the brinkmanship game with them. Trump has no political baggage and nobody in the political establishment expects much of him so I say, let him try to engage with Kim Jong-Un. Take Kim a Happy Meal and have a talk with him. What could it hurt? If he fails, no great woop but if he succeeds he drives a stake further into the hearts of those died-in-the-wool politician in Washington who say that he has no business being there in the first place. I am all for that!
Need to avoid playing Pyongyang’s game. The UN is at war with North Korea, not just the USA. And South Korea needs to be at the table, too. Wit appears to be a dupe or a shill for Fatty Kim.
And what’s with that hand gesture? Gang sign? Cry for help? Evidence of torture or drug use? Osteoarthritis?
@Tagum City Tim, the best deal Trump could work out is a temporary nuclear freeze by the North Koreans. I have not heard one plausible theory yet on why the Kim regime would denuclearize and declare peace in our time. Just getting the nuclear freeze would require significant concessions as the North Koreans have already hinted at wanting a peace treaty with the US. A peace treaty would then help lead to their ultimate goal of USFK withdrawal. No USFK and an arsenal nuclear weapons gives the North Koreans a much stronger hand than they currently have a against the ROK.
As far as meeting with Kim, Trump should not travel to North Korea and give the Kim regime a propaganda windfall. If Kim wants to talk he should first go to South Korea like his father had previously promised a future inter-Korean summit would be held and talk with the South Korean leader first.
Questions:
1. What does America really honestly truly want from North Korea?
2. What more can actually be done to North Korea (that won’t back them into a dangerous corner)?
3. What can/will North Korea do that is a bigger problem than just letting them do whatever they are doing (as long as they do it within their own borders)?
4. Is a North Korean ability to deliver nuclear bombs around the world by ICMB something that should (or can) be addressed now or is it better to let it play out a bit longer and then take harsh action (perhaps after setting clear limits and consequences).
Side Note: Saddam and Gaddafi both gave up their WMDs and got punished for it. Certainly North Korea observed this.
Bonus Queation: Is it even conceivable for North Korea to give up nuke and ICBM programs?
“And what’s with that hand gesture?”
Dog whistle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/the-filter/11424695/Polite-promiscuous…-gay-What-does-your-ring-finger-say-about-you.html
Let’s try a link that isn’t intentionally muddled.
POSSIBLY NSFW (gay site)
http://www.gayexplained.com/homosexuality-finger-length/
I would like to see Trump work out some type of deal that re-starts the joint efforts with north Korea to recover the remains of our troops still unaccounted for from the Korean War. There are around 4,000 sets of remains still in the DPRK and we need a surge effort to recover and identify as many as possible before the remaining siblings of the missing die off. The remains recovery effort in the DPRK was “temporarily” suspended over a decade ago by the Bush Administration. In the past, the US has tried to keep the negotiations over remains recovery separate from other issues, but time is running out and we need a new strategy so we can bring closure to more families.
To our esteemed leader GIKorea – I believe that nK is getting a lot of pressure from China behind the scenes to open up substantially as China has done. Perhaps the time has come for nK to open up to the West. You can see China’s irritation in the fact that they have agreed, albeit begrudgingly, to support the latest sanctions against nK. It only took the U.S. two months to crack that nut. Opening up to the West would allow Fatty Kim to be able to go to the Pyongyang McDonald’s and pig out! Kimchi burgers for everybody! Hehehe. Seriously though, I am eager to see if Trump can use his “Art of the Deal” skills successfully on such a tough opponent as Kim III.
CH – I see where you are going with your line of questioning. The first question on your list is very telling. The U.S. has always been negotiating on behalf of South Korea. Up until the point where the Fatty Kim regime actually accomplished some limited ICBM technology (which is still far from being proven to really work other than shooting missiles off into space and littering the ocean with the debris) the U.S. had no real interest in nK other than keeping them from attacking South Korea or Japan (both of which would be a stupid idea without the support of the Chinese).
I believe Fatty Kim sees an opportunity to negotiate with Trump allowing his regime to remain in power and get some of the benefits of opening up to the West as China did under Deng Xiaoping.
Even if Trump signed a peace treaty with NK in return for NK denuclearization, NK would still keep nukes hidden behind the UN’s backs.
And here I just thought it was a sign that he was being forced to cooperate…
And then again, there’s this: “They had certain characteristics by which they could be detected, such as the absence of a pulse or heartbeat and the inability to bleed. Most of the aliens, in particular the lowest-ranking members or workers in green jumpsuits, were emotionless and had deformed little fingers which could not move and were bent at an unnatural angle, although there were “deluxe models” who could manipulate this finger.” http://tinyurl.com/hcbwjj7
@Mike, I think most people would agree with restarting the search for remains would be a good thing. However, a cost benefit analysis has to be done. For example how much should we pay the Kim regime for the return of one remain? If a million per remain was paid to the regime and they returned two hundred remains that would be $200 million of foreign currency going straight into the regime’s coffers to aid their nuclear and missile programs.
It also complicates US efforts to get other countries to end financial deals with the Kim regime if the US is giving them large sums of money for the return of the remains.
The North Koreans know exactly where most of the remains are and have been stockpiling them just waiting for the right price to turn them over:
https://www.rokdrop.net/2014/10/north-korea-uses-korean-war-remains-to-pressure-washington-for-free-money/
@Chickenhead, like I have said many times before I cannot think of a reason why the Kim regime would give up their nuclear and missile programs considering what they have seen happened to other regimes in recent years that did not have these programs.
So the best Trump could do is get a freeze in these programs through negotiations. The question then becomes how many nuclear weapons and delivery systems should the North Koreans be allowed to keep and how to enforce compliance? Especially with such a secretive country known for cheating on prior agreements. This doesn’t seem like negotiations that Trump will prioritize any time soon.
@Tagum City Tim, I have no doubt that China would prefer a much less troublesome North Korea without nuclear weapons. However, the alternative of a collapsed North Korean state that would cause a massive refugee problem with potential reunification with the South that is host to US troops is less appealing alternative.
China will begrudgingly agree to sanctions, but actually enforcing them is a different issue all together. The Chinese regime will never enforce sanctions that will lead to regime collapse.
As far as North Korea opening up to Chinese style reforms, that idea pretty much ended with the firing squad Kim Jong-un’s uncle found himself in front of a few years back. Kim and his inner circle know opening the country to Chinese style reforms would ultimately end their regime.