Tweet of the Day: Thae Yong-ho Prediction

There’s no doubt that North Korea would love to take this guy out. But … 1) everyone on earth would know who did it, and 2) the ROK National intelligence Service has already debriefed him and he no longer has access to new information – so the only further harm he can do is acting as a propaganda tool for the ROK.

So why would the North care if everyone knows they were behind assassinating Thae? The UN Human Rights Council just hit the North for the 12th year in a row for human rights violations. And for the third year in a row, the matter was referred to the International Criminal Court (but China and Russia will again oppose the ICC referral, so nothing will actually become of that). The UN has said that Kim Jong-un and some senior North Korean officials should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. It’s quite obvious from North Korean press reports that KJU gets REALLY hot and bothered about being identified by name as a human rights violator and recommended for prosecution by the ICC.

So if the North assassinates Thae – it’s almost certain that the UN would make a really big deal out of it. So the North would have to weigh the fallout against (almost certain) further actions by the UN – that will be squarely aimed at KJU. If someone like Thae is assassinated, might China and Russia finally say enough is enough and decide to NOT oppose the next referral to the ICC?

Lastly, how would assassinating Thae affect the rest of the North Korean diplomatic corps? Would it scare them into never considering defecting … or would it make it just that much more obvious to them that they should take their family and run while they still have a chance?

The North Korean defectors will choose to defect to the US instead. This Moon Jae-In character is a real worry though. He’s practically in bed with North Korea currently and he’s going to do everything in his power to silence all the North Korean defectors, not just Thae.

As far as other would-be defectors from the North Korean diplomatic corps … I think it’s pretty well understood that if you defect and live a quiet life under the radar – you’ll be just fine. Hwang Jang-Yop is a good example of that. For whatever reason, Thae has essentially opted to become a public figure in South Korea. He’ll probably make a lot more money this way (speaking fees, higher profile job, etc.).

The “big name” defectors in recent years aren’t really “high ups” in the regime. They are just diplomats and trade officials. They are not the ones calling shots back in Pyongyang. People on this list are the “high ups” to whom you refer:

https://nkleadershipwatch.wordpress.com/leadership-biographies/

But other than Hwang Jang-Yop in 1997, no one else from this list has ever defected.