Whenever noted North Korean scholar Dr. Andrei Lankov writes something I take notice. In his latest op-ed published in Bloomberg he is advocating that the incoming Trump administration negotiate a deal for a nuclear and missile freeze with North Korea:
Finally, some observers seem to hold out hope that Trump, a self-described “great” dealmaker, might be able to talk Kim out of his nukes in direct negotiations. This, too, is a futile idea. U.S. and North Korean interests are fundamentally incompatible. North Korean leaders fear that giving up their nukes would leave them dangerously vulnerable; they only too well remember what happened to Moammar Qaddafi after he negotiated away his nuclear program.
The truth is that for more than a decade, there’s been no real chance of fully eliminating the North’s nuclear program. Even now, though, the U.S. could negotiate something better than the current situation: a verifiable freeze on nuclear and missile testing, before North Korea develops an ICBM.
Of course, Kim isn’t going to restrain himself for free. In return, he will demand many things — a hefty aid package, above all, but also political concessions, including a formal peace treaty. No doubt his regime will probably try to cheat.
The opponents of such a compromise will describe it as a terrible precedent, even blackmail — and they may be right. Unlike Iran, North Korea will remain a nuclear power even after signing such a deal. But the alternatives — either a major war that drags in the U.S. and China, or a fully armed North with the proven capacity to attack the U.S. mainland — are worse. As long as there’s still a chance of striking such a compromise, the new U.S. President should be doing everything he can to seize it. [Bloomberg]
I do not see the point of a nuclear freeze in return for a bunch of free goodies to the Kim regime in return for something that even Dr. Lankov admits they will try and cheat on. Plus by agreeing to sign a peace treaty with North Korea that puts into question the entire existence of the US-ROK alliance which is why the Kim regime has been pressing so hard for it. The Kim regime knows they have no chance of reunifying the peninsula on their terms as long as the US-ROK alliance is in place.
It seems to me a peace treaty should not be part of a freeze deal and whatever deal that is signed should include robust inspections and the risk of a retaliatory bombing strike if it is not complied with. The risk of war on the peninsula by noncompliance by the Kim regime would give motivation to the Chinese to make sure the Kim regime is complying with the deal.
Every time the DPRK puts an ICBM on the launch pad, Trump should launch a strike to bomb the missile. It would be very difficult for the DPRK to meaningfully retaliate in such a way that does not risk escalation to war.
setnaffa
7 years ago
One cannot negotiate in good faith with DPRK. Period.
Remember that if a military strike happens against North Korea they will retaliate in some way against South Korea. So any leader advocating a strike against the North better have a plan to respond with if North Korea decides to lob a few artillery rounds into Seoul in response.
The ROK public would probably be furious at a unilateral US strike that puts them in the line of fire of North Korean retaliation.
You know why we aren’t dealing with a bunch of problems trying to negotiate stuff with Nazi Germany? Because enough leaders teamed up and said “Yeah enough of this 5hit.” and there is no Nazi Germany.
Granted it took the Nazis to outright invade before people got off their a55e5. China and the DPRK figured as long as they don’t make the same mistake Germany did they can just dance on any red line drawn and keep this up forever. No deal will ever be the solution with these a-holes. The only thing a Chinese or NK Ajeoshi respects is a good smack in the face; everything else is a bolster to their Ajeoshiness.
Trump’s going to have to sit down whoever the heck is running the RoK these days and plainly state that to clean up that pile of 5hit up north we’re going to have to get some p00p on our hands. I’ve no hopes of this happening and when we’re all old and dying there will still be a DPRK f’ing things up for everyone. 🙄
If you are worried about the backlash, you don’t have to announce that you bombed the missile. The missile could just “explode on the launch pad.” Similar rocketry accidents have happened before.
Good luck trying to keep a bombing strike against North Korea secret, but even if the US denied responsibility for a bombing strike the North Koreans would know and would respond.
As far as a retaliatory strike against South Korea there will be a huge anti-US backlash for instigating the retaliation. Remember in 2008 the protests against US beef and the crowds that drew? Well the anti-US left would have actual destruction and dead bodies to point after a strike.
Working here at White Sands tells me that if an… unfortunately accident… were to happen to a missile sitting on a launcher, I wouldn’t be especially surprised. Pew, pew, pew.
Bombs are old school, and leave traceable evidence. But the Wrath of God? Not so much. Unfortunate fires are unfortunate for some folks, and quite fortunate for others.
If you’re curious, Google around for a bit. The light will come on pretty quickly.
Who is going to believe the North Koreans if they accuse the US for their missile failure? The DPRK has arguably the worst reputation in the world for the credibility of its accusations and the reliability of its rockets.
We just need to minimize the risk of any remnant physical evidence like bomb fragments. The laser might work, but that sort of attack would be more easily detectible than a stealth bomber.
Trump’s not going to strike N. Korea. In terms of US-DPRK policy, it will be status quo as usual, regardless if a Republican or a Democrat is President.
Every time the DPRK puts an ICBM on the launch pad, Trump should launch a strike to bomb the missile. It would be very difficult for the DPRK to meaningfully retaliate in such a way that does not risk escalation to war.
One cannot negotiate in good faith with DPRK. Period.
Remember that if a military strike happens against North Korea they will retaliate in some way against South Korea. So any leader advocating a strike against the North better have a plan to respond with if North Korea decides to lob a few artillery rounds into Seoul in response.
The ROK public would probably be furious at a unilateral US strike that puts them in the line of fire of North Korean retaliation.
You know why we aren’t dealing with a bunch of problems trying to negotiate stuff with Nazi Germany? Because enough leaders teamed up and said “Yeah enough of this 5hit.” and there is no Nazi Germany.
Granted it took the Nazis to outright invade before people got off their a55e5. China and the DPRK figured as long as they don’t make the same mistake Germany did they can just dance on any red line drawn and keep this up forever. No deal will ever be the solution with these a-holes. The only thing a Chinese or NK Ajeoshi respects is a good smack in the face; everything else is a bolster to their Ajeoshiness.
Trump’s going to have to sit down whoever the heck is running the RoK these days and plainly state that to clean up that pile of 5hit up north we’re going to have to get some p00p on our hands. I’ve no hopes of this happening and when we’re all old and dying there will still be a DPRK f’ing things up for everyone. 🙄
North Korea artys Seoul so end the alliance with America? An anti-American response make no sense at all.
If you are worried about the backlash, you don’t have to announce that you bombed the missile. The missile could just “explode on the launch pad.” Similar rocketry accidents have happened before.
Good luck trying to keep a bombing strike against North Korea secret, but even if the US denied responsibility for a bombing strike the North Koreans would know and would respond.
As far as a retaliatory strike against South Korea there will be a huge anti-US backlash for instigating the retaliation. Remember in 2008 the protests against US beef and the crowds that drew? Well the anti-US left would have actual destruction and dead bodies to point after a strike.
Working here at White Sands tells me that if an… unfortunately accident… were to happen to a missile sitting on a launcher, I wouldn’t be especially surprised. Pew, pew, pew.
Bombs are old school, and leave traceable evidence. But the Wrath of God? Not so much. Unfortunate fires are unfortunate for some folks, and quite fortunate for others.
If you’re curious, Google around for a bit. The light will come on pretty quickly.
Who is going to believe the North Koreans if they accuse the US for their missile failure? The DPRK has arguably the worst reputation in the world for the credibility of its accusations and the reliability of its rockets.
We just need to minimize the risk of any remnant physical evidence like bomb fragments. The laser might work, but that sort of attack would be more easily detectible than a stealth bomber.
Trump’s not going to strike N. Korea. In terms of US-DPRK policy, it will be status quo as usual, regardless if a Republican or a Democrat is President.