It would probably be interesting to be a fly on the wall to over hear what President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping will discuss this weekend:
President Donald Trump listens to a question during a town hall with business leaders in the White House in Washington on Tuesday. [AP/YONHAP]Claiming North Korea is a “matter of urgent interest” for President Trump and his administration, the official added that Trump “has been pretty clear in messaging how important it is for China to coordinate with the United States, and for China to begin exerting its considerable economic leverage to bring about a peaceful resolution to that problem.”
Such issues will come up in their discussions, the official said. “Even though we hear sometimes that China’s political influence may have diminished with North Korea, clearly its economic leverage has not,” pointing out that nearly 90 percent of Pyongyang’s external trade is with its closest ally Beijing.
The Trump administration has been suggesting a paradigm shift from previous U.S. governments on policy toward the North Korea issue, putting the Pyongyang nuclear issue as a top priority for the first time.
Trump’s administration also isn’t shy about the pressure it intends to put on China over North Korea.
In a town hall meeting with business CEOs on Tuesday, Trump said on his upcoming summit with Xi, “I’m sure we’re going to have a fantastic meeting and we’re going to talk about a lot of things, including, of course, North Korea,” which he described as “really a humanity problem.”
“China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump declared in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday.
“China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”
He also said that he will solve the North Korea issue if China won’t do it – and without China’s help. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
President Trump is going to talk tough, the Chinese are going to nod their heads yes and say, “Alright, we’ll work with you. We’re finally going to get tough on North Korea.”
It’ll be all smiles and back slapping for the rest of the summit.
A few weeks later, the US is going to ask, “So about that agreement to get tough on North Korea … ”
China will say, “Oh yes. We’re are working hard on our plan. But please understand, this sort of thing takes time.”
Eventually … months down the road … the Chinese will still be “working on the plan” and we’ll be right back where we started.
Mercury
7 years ago
GI Korea, what do you think about Noam Chomsky’s allegations that the US never gave peace a try with North Korea?
@mercury, I just watched the first few minutes of the video and turned it off. Chomsky is just repeating far left talking points that the US is to blame for everything and just shrugs off North Korean cheating on past deals. For example the North Koreans admitted to the Bush administration they were cheating on the Agreed Framework that Chomsky champions in his commentary:
Confronted by new American intelligence, North Korea has admitted that it has been conducting a major clandestine nuclear-weapons development program for the past several years, the Bush administration said tonight. Officials added that North Korea had also informed them that it has now ”nullified” its 1994 agreement with the United States to freeze all nuclear weapons development activity.
North Korea’s surprise revelation, which confronts the Bush administration with a nuclear crisis in Asia even as it threatens war with Iraq, came 12 days ago in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. A senior American diplomat, James A. Kelley, confronted his North Korean counterparts with American intelligence data suggesting a secret project was under way. At first, the North Korean officials angrily denied the allegation, according to an American official who was present.
The next day the North Koreans acknowledged the nuclear program and according to one American official said they, ”have more powerful things as well.” American officials have interpreted that comment as an acknowledgment that North Korea possesses other weapons of mass destruction. [New York Times]
What was the Bush administration supposed to do, pretend the North Koreans did not admit to cheating on the nuclear deal and keep the free goodies the US was providing to them going? The same thing happened with the next deal Bush signed with the North Koreans where they again got caught cheating.
Then he complains about the US freezing the money in the Macau bank that scuttled the deal and not their secret uranium program. The freezing of funds at Banco Delta Asia was because of North Korean counterfeiting and had nothing to do with the nuclear issue. Additionally the freezing of the money in the bank is what caused North Korea to come to the bargaining table to cut a deal with the Bush administration in return for the money.
He is so blatantly wrong about simple facts it is incredible anyone would listen to him.
ChickenHead
7 years ago
Guitard, your idea is exactly right based on past performances…
…but Trump plays a different game.
It appears Trump is most interested in the success of America and will make decisions with that in mind… limited only by advisors who may be experts.
Unlike past presidents, it is hard to imagine him waiting around while North Korean missile become more reliable and travel longer distances… while their nukes get smaller and lighter with a higher yield… all while they won’t shut up about attacking America.
What would really happen if Trump carpet bombed the North Korean nuclear and missile sites? China and South Korea would be informed as soon as the first bombs fell… and what would they do? Complain? Cut off the supply of cheap manufactured crap?
Trump is in a position to draw a Red Line… and then enforce it… and nobody will be surprised… and everyone will take notice… and tread carefully.
It seems clear there is going to be a strike on NK at some point as they prepare nukes and missiles (expecially if they do it at the same time)… unless the Chinese take Trump seriously and get NK under control… if they can.
The new South Korean president won’t come for a month… so this is a nice window.
What would really happen if Trump carpet bombed the North Korean nuclear and missile sites? China and South Korea would be informed as soon as the first bombs fell… and what would they do? Complain? Cut off the supply of cheap manufactured crap?
Or … North Korea fires artillery into Seoul.
After a mad scramble to put an end the madness, the new South Korean leadership tells USFK to pack up and go away. North Korea ends up getting what it wanted.
South Korea is left to move closer to China’s sphere of influence. China gets what it wanted.
The USA is portrayed as an irrational aggressor and is further isolated. Russia gets what it wanted.
North Korea is then in a more secure position to redevelop its nuclear program. The USA ends up not achieving what it wanted.
Denny
7 years ago
Breaking: Trump orders military strike in Syria; Dozens of cruise missiles launched at government targets (Major shift in policy toward Russian-backed Assad)
As you may have noticed, Trump just did in Syria exactly what I predict will happen in North Korea… what now has moved from a possibility to a strong probability.
Russia and Iran mumbled around something about displeasure. The UN will mumble around something more. Nobody really likes chemical weapons being thrown around so the condemnation is rather half-hearted.
The end result is everyone will think twice about using chemical in warfare… especially in civilian areas.
While chemical weapons are an immediate humanitarian issue, and something worthy of deterring, advanced nukes and the mean to deliver them while voicing constant threats is a real problem for America.
Trump has already warned China of what is coming if they do not tighten the leash. It couldn’t have been lost on you that he authorized the Syria strike while meeting with the head of China. Any threats he made over North Korea have a great deal of credibility right now. This is classic Trump negotiation style.
It was certainly not lost on the Chinese that they are no longer dealing with weak Obama or reckless Bush.
Trump will act “unilaterally” so Seoul will not become a target… but North Korea will not strongly retaliate against South Korea anyway. They will suck up their losses and move on… as the ruling elite would rather enjoy the good life without a nuclear program than face a devistating retaliation for their retaliation and be put out of a job.
The reason they have a nuke and missile program is because Clinton didn’t care, Bush needed a non-Muslim enemy, and Obama was weak on every level and generally uncaring about America*.
*(references available on request)
North Korea is either going to halt their nuke and missile programs or lose them… or start moving them completely underground… or start talking love for America… or a number of other option.
But they are not going to he allowed to continue what they are doing.
Prediction: They escalate. American navy lurks. They set up fake tests to see if America can get sucked into bombing empty bomb housing and rocket-shaped pipe set up by expendable prisoners… giving them a propaganda victory with no real loss.
I’m well aware of Trump’s tactics. My point was that no matter what the Chinese say in terms of cooperation regarding North Korea – they won’t follow through and we can’t trust them. We’re on our own – which is just fine.
Pack up and go away? You mean … like we packed up and moved out of Germany after the wall came down … 28 years ago? Or how we packed up and moved out of Japan?
I think Chickenhead is right that President Trump has sent a message to the Chinese that North Korea is next if they don’t get them under control.
As JoeC talked about, what happens after the North Koreans retaliate against South Korea after any bombing strike? If they shell an island or sink a ROK ship again would President Trump order another bombing strike in response to a retaliatory strike into the ROK even if the ROK president did not want it?
If the Kim regime lobs artillery into Seoul I would think the ROK has to respond forcefully and who knows where it goes from there.
This could be interesting times.
ChickenHead
7 years ago
It is Trump’s business to stop North Korea from further developing small nukes and big rockets while threatening America with seas of fire.
It is South Korea’s business to respond (or not) to sunken South Korean ships or shelled islands.
…so, no, Trump will not respond to attacks against South Korea that South Korea won’t respond to.
How does China slap Kim’s hand? Just what exactly are the Chinese going to do? It’s to the point where it would be like telling a street hooker strung out on meth that she should stop what she’s doing. It’s not even a case of in one ear and out the other … because what gets said never even makes it in the one ear to begin with.
And KJU is not going to stop his missile and nuke development. It’s the only path he sees to long-term survival – even though it might end up getting him killed in the process.
ChickenHead
7 years ago
“How does China slap Kim’s hand?”
Close the border and freeze all trade.
Somebody, somewhere… be it North Korea, South Korea, China, or ROK Drop must fully wrap their head around the facts here and stop lying to themselves.
Because Trump is going to solve this problem violently if there is no cooperation to solve it peacefully.
Trump is not going to let North Korea develop a successful ICMB. Trump has the ability to stop their development programs. Trump does not care if North Korea “retaliates” against South Korea or Japan. Trump does not care if China voices outrage.
This is what “America First” means.
There are also some upsides with increasing instability on the Korean Peninsula and increasing tension with China.
Prediction: North Korea will halt their missile and nuke programs in 2017… one way or another.
Closing the border and (really and truly) freezing trade would hurt … but it would mostly hurt the regular folks in North Korea. KJU wouldn’t even blink though. He’d tell his scientists to keep working. If they do a lousy job or for some reason they can’t get the job done to KJU’s satisfaction – they’re dead. And their family is sent to a gulag. And then it’s the next man up.
Either Trump gets the job done or it’s going to be the same ol’ same ol’.
ChickenHead
7 years ago
“Closing the border and (really and truly) freezing trade would hurt … but it would mostly hurt the regular folks in North Korea.”
Mostly… but it is for show anyway. Who cares. It would just be a show of support from the Chinese.
All the action will be on the back end.
China is going to tell North Korea very clearly that Trump is not bluffing. Then they are going to let Trump destroy the NK weapons sites/programs… with only the minimum required outrage and condemnation.
China is not going to get into a war with the US over the destruction of NK weapons programs. Everybody knows this… Trump, the Chinese, NK, you.
Further, NK weapons programs are not exactly loved by the Chinese. All it takes is the collapse of the NK government and whatever replaces them has nukes and delivery systems… and nobody really knows what might replace them.
When it gets down to it, the Chinese might even quietly support a Trump strike… and the details and limitations might have been worked out over dry-aged steak.
“KJU wouldn’t even blink though. He’d tell his scientists to keep working. If they do a lousy job or for some reason they can’t get the job done to KJU’s satisfaction – they’re dead.”
The problem with that policy is that you eventually run out of scientists. Any strike may try to maximize the losses of experienced scientists and technicians. It would take many years to recover.
“Either Trump gets the job done or it’s going to be the same ol’ same ol’.”
Absolutely. I predict he will get the job done. There is no downside.
You have to keep in mind, however, the Chinese want what the Chinese want – and that guides every aspect of how they have been handling this. And what they want is an end state that leaves a buffer between China and the US on the Korean Peninsula. So however which way this goes down – the Chinese will act in accordance with that as a goal. The US wiping out North Korea’s weapons & leadership and paving the way for a unified peninsula under South Korean rule doesn’t leave a buffer.
If there was a way for the US to convince the Chinese that the US can take out KJU and destroy North Korea’s weapons – and somehow leave a functioning state behind in North Korea – Xi would shake hands on that deal today at the summit. But that’s hard to do.
This is going to be interesting.
ChickenHead
7 years ago
“America First” indicates Trump doesn’t care what China wants.
China gets what China gets.
North Korea is getting increasingly smaller nukes and increasingly better delivery systems… while threatening the USA. This is unacceptable. Even China understands this.
China’s choices are to get North Korea to stop these programs through threats or bribes… or accept what happens after Trump will stop these programs.
Presumably, an agreement can (has/shall soon be) worked out where limited precision strikes destroy infrastructure and personnel but do not threaten the stability of NK leadership.
China will then rat out Trump’s plan to NK in hopes they will declare success in developing the world’s best nuke ICBM and shut down their programs.
They likely won’t.
Prepare cash to buy into the Korean stock market when the panic selling starts.
Mark my words!
President Trump is going to talk tough, the Chinese are going to nod their heads yes and say, “Alright, we’ll work with you. We’re finally going to get tough on North Korea.”
It’ll be all smiles and back slapping for the rest of the summit.
A few weeks later, the US is going to ask, “So about that agreement to get tough on North Korea … ”
China will say, “Oh yes. We’re are working hard on our plan. But please understand, this sort of thing takes time.”
Eventually … months down the road … the Chinese will still be “working on the plan” and we’ll be right back where we started.
GI Korea, what do you think about Noam Chomsky’s allegations that the US never gave peace a try with North Korea?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDGpm_Uuq8M
This thought is pretty much widespread also within the South Korean leftist movements.
@mercury, I just watched the first few minutes of the video and turned it off. Chomsky is just repeating far left talking points that the US is to blame for everything and just shrugs off North Korean cheating on past deals. For example the North Koreans admitted to the Bush administration they were cheating on the Agreed Framework that Chomsky champions in his commentary:
What was the Bush administration supposed to do, pretend the North Koreans did not admit to cheating on the nuclear deal and keep the free goodies the US was providing to them going? The same thing happened with the next deal Bush signed with the North Koreans where they again got caught cheating.
Then he complains about the US freezing the money in the Macau bank that scuttled the deal and not their secret uranium program. The freezing of funds at Banco Delta Asia was because of North Korean counterfeiting and had nothing to do with the nuclear issue. Additionally the freezing of the money in the bank is what caused North Korea to come to the bargaining table to cut a deal with the Bush administration in return for the money.
He is so blatantly wrong about simple facts it is incredible anyone would listen to him.
Guitard, your idea is exactly right based on past performances…
…but Trump plays a different game.
It appears Trump is most interested in the success of America and will make decisions with that in mind… limited only by advisors who may be experts.
Unlike past presidents, it is hard to imagine him waiting around while North Korean missile become more reliable and travel longer distances… while their nukes get smaller and lighter with a higher yield… all while they won’t shut up about attacking America.
What would really happen if Trump carpet bombed the North Korean nuclear and missile sites? China and South Korea would be informed as soon as the first bombs fell… and what would they do? Complain? Cut off the supply of cheap manufactured crap?
Trump is in a position to draw a Red Line… and then enforce it… and nobody will be surprised… and everyone will take notice… and tread carefully.
It seems clear there is going to be a strike on NK at some point as they prepare nukes and missiles (expecially if they do it at the same time)… unless the Chinese take Trump seriously and get NK under control… if they can.
The new South Korean president won’t come for a month… so this is a nice window.
Bets anyone?
Or … North Korea fires artillery into Seoul.
After a mad scramble to put an end the madness, the new South Korean leadership tells USFK to pack up and go away. North Korea ends up getting what it wanted.
South Korea is left to move closer to China’s sphere of influence. China gets what it wanted.
The USA is portrayed as an irrational aggressor and is further isolated. Russia gets what it wanted.
North Korea is then in a more secure position to redevelop its nuclear program. The USA ends up not achieving what it wanted.
Breaking: Trump orders military strike in Syria; Dozens of cruise missiles launched at government targets (Major shift in policy toward Russian-backed Assad)
http://ktla.com/2017/04/06/u-s-launches-50-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-at-syrian-government-targets/
Actually part of his negotiations with China…
JoeC,
As you may have noticed, Trump just did in Syria exactly what I predict will happen in North Korea… what now has moved from a possibility to a strong probability.
Russia and Iran mumbled around something about displeasure. The UN will mumble around something more. Nobody really likes chemical weapons being thrown around so the condemnation is rather half-hearted.
The end result is everyone will think twice about using chemical in warfare… especially in civilian areas.
While chemical weapons are an immediate humanitarian issue, and something worthy of deterring, advanced nukes and the mean to deliver them while voicing constant threats is a real problem for America.
Trump has already warned China of what is coming if they do not tighten the leash. It couldn’t have been lost on you that he authorized the Syria strike while meeting with the head of China. Any threats he made over North Korea have a great deal of credibility right now. This is classic Trump negotiation style.
It was certainly not lost on the Chinese that they are no longer dealing with weak Obama or reckless Bush.
Trump will act “unilaterally” so Seoul will not become a target… but North Korea will not strongly retaliate against South Korea anyway. They will suck up their losses and move on… as the ruling elite would rather enjoy the good life without a nuclear program than face a devistating retaliation for their retaliation and be put out of a job.
The reason they have a nuke and missile program is because Clinton didn’t care, Bush needed a non-Muslim enemy, and Obama was weak on every level and generally uncaring about America*.
*(references available on request)
North Korea is either going to halt their nuke and missile programs or lose them… or start moving them completely underground… or start talking love for America… or a number of other option.
But they are not going to he allowed to continue what they are doing.
Prediction: They escalate. American navy lurks. They set up fake tests to see if America can get sucked into bombing empty bomb housing and rocket-shaped pipe set up by expendable prisoners… giving them a propaganda victory with no real loss.
Get the popcorn.
I’m well aware of Trump’s tactics. My point was that no matter what the Chinese say in terms of cooperation regarding North Korea – they won’t follow through and we can’t trust them. We’re on our own – which is just fine.
Pack up and go away? You mean … like we packed up and moved out of Germany after the wall came down … 28 years ago? Or how we packed up and moved out of Japan?
My prediction is the Chinese slap Fatty Kim’s hand and there is a deal paying the norks to give up their evil ways…
I think Chickenhead is right that President Trump has sent a message to the Chinese that North Korea is next if they don’t get them under control.
As JoeC talked about, what happens after the North Koreans retaliate against South Korea after any bombing strike? If they shell an island or sink a ROK ship again would President Trump order another bombing strike in response to a retaliatory strike into the ROK even if the ROK president did not want it?
If the Kim regime lobs artillery into Seoul I would think the ROK has to respond forcefully and who knows where it goes from there.
This could be interesting times.
It is Trump’s business to stop North Korea from further developing small nukes and big rockets while threatening America with seas of fire.
It is South Korea’s business to respond (or not) to sunken South Korean ships or shelled islands.
…so, no, Trump will not respond to attacks against South Korea that South Korea won’t respond to.
How does China slap Kim’s hand? Just what exactly are the Chinese going to do? It’s to the point where it would be like telling a street hooker strung out on meth that she should stop what she’s doing. It’s not even a case of in one ear and out the other … because what gets said never even makes it in the one ear to begin with.
And KJU is not going to stop his missile and nuke development. It’s the only path he sees to long-term survival – even though it might end up getting him killed in the process.
“How does China slap Kim’s hand?”
Close the border and freeze all trade.
Somebody, somewhere… be it North Korea, South Korea, China, or ROK Drop must fully wrap their head around the facts here and stop lying to themselves.
Because Trump is going to solve this problem violently if there is no cooperation to solve it peacefully.
Trump is not going to let North Korea develop a successful ICMB. Trump has the ability to stop their development programs. Trump does not care if North Korea “retaliates” against South Korea or Japan. Trump does not care if China voices outrage.
This is what “America First” means.
There are also some upsides with increasing instability on the Korean Peninsula and increasing tension with China.
Prediction: North Korea will halt their missile and nuke programs in 2017… one way or another.
Closing the border and (really and truly) freezing trade would hurt … but it would mostly hurt the regular folks in North Korea. KJU wouldn’t even blink though. He’d tell his scientists to keep working. If they do a lousy job or for some reason they can’t get the job done to KJU’s satisfaction – they’re dead. And their family is sent to a gulag. And then it’s the next man up.
Either Trump gets the job done or it’s going to be the same ol’ same ol’.
“Closing the border and (really and truly) freezing trade would hurt … but it would mostly hurt the regular folks in North Korea.”
Mostly… but it is for show anyway. Who cares. It would just be a show of support from the Chinese.
All the action will be on the back end.
China is going to tell North Korea very clearly that Trump is not bluffing. Then they are going to let Trump destroy the NK weapons sites/programs… with only the minimum required outrage and condemnation.
China is not going to get into a war with the US over the destruction of NK weapons programs. Everybody knows this… Trump, the Chinese, NK, you.
Further, NK weapons programs are not exactly loved by the Chinese. All it takes is the collapse of the NK government and whatever replaces them has nukes and delivery systems… and nobody really knows what might replace them.
When it gets down to it, the Chinese might even quietly support a Trump strike… and the details and limitations might have been worked out over dry-aged steak.
“KJU wouldn’t even blink though. He’d tell his scientists to keep working. If they do a lousy job or for some reason they can’t get the job done to KJU’s satisfaction – they’re dead.”
The problem with that policy is that you eventually run out of scientists. Any strike may try to maximize the losses of experienced scientists and technicians. It would take many years to recover.
“Either Trump gets the job done or it’s going to be the same ol’ same ol’.”
Absolutely. I predict he will get the job done. There is no downside.
You have to keep in mind, however, the Chinese want what the Chinese want – and that guides every aspect of how they have been handling this. And what they want is an end state that leaves a buffer between China and the US on the Korean Peninsula. So however which way this goes down – the Chinese will act in accordance with that as a goal. The US wiping out North Korea’s weapons & leadership and paving the way for a unified peninsula under South Korean rule doesn’t leave a buffer.
If there was a way for the US to convince the Chinese that the US can take out KJU and destroy North Korea’s weapons – and somehow leave a functioning state behind in North Korea – Xi would shake hands on that deal today at the summit. But that’s hard to do.
This is going to be interesting.
“America First” indicates Trump doesn’t care what China wants.
China gets what China gets.
North Korea is getting increasingly smaller nukes and increasingly better delivery systems… while threatening the USA. This is unacceptable. Even China understands this.
China’s choices are to get North Korea to stop these programs through threats or bribes… or accept what happens after Trump will stop these programs.
Presumably, an agreement can (has/shall soon be) worked out where limited precision strikes destroy infrastructure and personnel but do not threaten the stability of NK leadership.
China will then rat out Trump’s plan to NK in hopes they will declare success in developing the world’s best nuke ICBM and shut down their programs.
They likely won’t.
Prepare cash to buy into the Korean stock market when the panic selling starts.
North Korea just launched a missile of sorts.
The tomahawks are about to fly!
Missile test failed. Trump decides not to strike N Korea. China gives lip service about pressuring N Korea. Business as usual.
Did the missile test fail or ‘fail’?
North Korea’s programs are over.
One wonders if there was a shark equipped with a laser beam…
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/992/823/bb4.jpg
Considering HELSTF is just down the road from where I am… Can’t say we have sharks with freakin’ lasers on their head, but can’t say we don’t.