I foresee this being the opening gesture by the Moon administration towards some kind of freeze deal with North Korea that has a growing chorus from experts and the media:
President Moon Jae-in speaks about peace on the Korean Peninsula, inter-Korean relations and unification at the old city hall of Berlin, Germany, Thursday. The non-profit Korber Foundation invited the President to the event. / Yonhap
President Moon Jae-in said Thursday he will seek to pursue a peace treaty with North Korea, taking a step forward for inter-Korean reconciliation despite Pyongyang’s test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) two days earlier.
Moon’s pledge comes after North Korea and China have repeatedly called for the signing of a peace treaty with the United States to formally end the Korean War and settle the security crisis on the peninsula.
The President appeared to be seeking U.S. support in his push for a peace treaty as the U.S., on behalf of the United Nations, signed the 1953 armistice agreement with North Korea and China. South Korea was not among the signatories.
“We should make a peace treaty joined by all relevant parties at the end of the Korean War to settle a lasting peace on the peninsula,” Moon said during his Korean-language invitational speech at the Korber Foundation, a nonprofit think tank in Berlin. “I will take a comprehensive approach to North Koream nuclear issues to pursue the peace treaty along with complete denuclearization (in the region.)” [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but remember North Korea does not want peace, it wants peace treaty negotiations. There is a big difference.
Well we know for sure where president Moon has his head.
Knife Aquelee
7 years ago
Is this guy nuts or what. North Korea whole way of life is base on a show-down with America, they want nothing better than to take the shine off the Unite State of America, there is know way around it except for occasionally a few tricks to get something they need and will make war with anybody else who get in their way.
This guy need to understand who he is dealing with, which are the cream of the crop of that country. If Kim Jong Un did want to make peace, he probally would be shot. If this country make it’s way Back to a normal country with or without the South only then the two Could talk about passing the olive branch. But not with those oligarchs.
Just to get a foot-whole in that country, you would probably have to kill a hundred thousand or more from the top down to get your foot in the door. And I would assume that that would be on the cheap for human life is concern. Now if I would use Colin Powell doctrine more like a million to be on the safe side, to splash civil unrest.
Not now. Kim is ways worst than his grandfather and father, he got that way from hard core indoctrination from his power base. How can he suggest peace when he has kill his family member for even whispering it in close room, reason is his uncle and aunt was given to hungry dogs. Just my thoughts.
Knife Aquelee
7 years ago
I see no edit box
setnaffa
7 years ago
Can’t negotiate until the North proves it wants peace by agreeing to disarm and invites free inspections. And pony rides.
Comfortable.chairs
7 years ago
I’m all for it. Honestly, I’d like nothing better than to see ROK and US soldiers destroying KJU and that regime, but I always believe military action should be the last resort. Every single opportunity to negotiate should be pursued, even though we know it will fail, because we are the morally superior regime. When the fatman is strung up and there are dead ROK and US soldiers, I don’t want anyone to be able to say we missed an opportunity for a peaceful resolution.
Jon Paul
7 years ago
Moon has got to be acting in bad faith here. He knows that we have been round this four or five times already, that negotiations, even when you give NK everything it asks for, don’t work. They always renege on their promises, and they keep on building those rockets. So how would these negotiations actually work? KJU “agrees” to a freeze if USFK leave; but he wants the Yankees out before he will finalize. So will Moon actually try that? You bet he will. He will paint it over in nice colors, and put sparklies on it, and there will be detailed timetables, etc., etc., but in the end the demands from NK will be simple: emasculate yourself and maybe, just maybe, we will talk about a freeze. So the negotiations ploy is either folly (always possible with Moon’s supporters), or it’s a bad faith statement; especially given the statement he agreed to after meeting with President Trump. Personally, I’m leaning more towards folly than anything else because after all, what are the optics of (1) having an ICBM test (2) calling an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss same and then (3) announcing feelers for negotiation.
The possible connection between (2) and (3) might be simply that the anti-American lefties in Cabinet suggested – during their “emergency” meeting – that this is what they think Moon should do. So — foolishness. Then too, the Cabinet members are like Moon’s base, and the announcement could also be premised on chilling them out in part because he knows that over the long term (ie, the next four years until an election), there can’t be negotiations without appeasement and, in effect, capitulation. He’s playing, in short, a dangerous game, and I don’t believe for an instant he is truly sincere about any of this.
I think you are on to something hear. Moon is clearly a friend of nK
Flyingsword
7 years ago
Wow, reward bad behavior. With a peace treaty UN mandate goes away, no need for US troops and lose basing rights to operate out of Japan against Korea (in the event of war). Moon is either the biggest idiot or in league with nK….
I just went through some of the posts there and that site is really a nightmare of young leftist Koreans and foreigners. They downvote anything that doesn’t cater to their political slant.
It’s a good dissection of the speech. The only question for me is, who is Moon talking to? NK is certainly not going to respond to those overtures as Moon states them, but only going to respond to it as a potential way to create a wedge between US and SK. The other audience is, of course, the liberal left in SK. I have friends on both sides of the political divide in SK, and on the Moon side, they all pretty much say the same thing he does. (1) if it happened in Germany it can happen in Korea (2) there is nothing wrong with the NK people, and it is the people who yearn for unification (3) cultural exchanges and economic projects are the way to get NK leadership to see the light because (4) at bottom, NK leadership is like any other, they want the best for their people.
This is going to take me a while to lay things out, so apologies for the length, in advance.
And those are items of faith for those on the political left. Part of me, the part the saw the 60s, wants this to be true, and yearns for it just like many SK citizens do. But the premises are fundamentally flawed.
On (1), there were easy contacts between East and West Germany, and no particular punishments for osties who wanted to watch WG television, etc. As well, there was a fairly well-developed network of resistance, a lot of it organized through the churches, that kept resisters in contact and ready to capitalize when the EG state began its collapse. Nothing like that network exists in NK, and currently there is no way to help organize it. Long term, yes, maybe setting up a digital network that the NK state can’t shut down will help create similar conditions. But Moon’s government, so far as I know, isn’t doing anything like this.
On (2), it’s hard to disagree, except that there are now some fairly savvy entrepreneurs in NK who are more than a little worried that if unification ever were to happen, SK carpetbaggers would swoop in, bankrupt the nascent merchant class, and buy everything in sight.
On (3), even NK has lately turned down the idea of such sports and cultural exchanges, mostly because they no longer need it. They have enough nuclear and missile leverage to exert pressure on an SK government which, based on this speech, seems all too willing to to kowtow.
But (4) is the real kicker in the unification game. NK is not, repeat not, a state. It is a family-run criminal conspiracy which maintains its power by allowing and encouraging its own “elites” to run their own criminal conspiracies, and which doesn’t give a crap about its citizens and what they want, feel, need, dream about, etc. NK is what you get when you live in gangland. No law, no freedom, no hope, really, even for merchants who are making money, because the criminals can shake you down and take your money at any time. The only “state” it resembles is a feudal one, a Joseon one, a Carolingian or Saxon one. So why would the officials and elites of such a “state” change their minds about the best way to do business, just because of a few soccer matches, or because of a successful joint venture or two, when they have everything they need just keeping things as they are? Moon’s fundamental problem, and the difficulty with his supporters, and millions of well-intentioned SK voters is that, in the face of all the evidence, he and they are willing to believe that the majority of humans are well intentioned (like themselves) and thus, open to change, to persuasion, to a change of heart. Most lefties in SK that I’ve spoken to are fairly convinced that what is preventing said change of heart is the bitterness NK feels about the Americans; and many if not most of those supporters are also anti-American, without really thinking about the actual (relatively small) role the US now plays in SK. Now, in support of the hopeful view, I’m quite willing to concede that truly evil people are quite rare. They do, however, alas, exist. And the people running NK right now are truly evil people. What Moon and his supporters need is a serious shock of some kind, something which will show them the evil so plainly that it cannot be denied, something strong enough to knock them out of their anti-American rut. They never seem to stop to think that just because they and the NK leadership are anti-American, that doesn’t mean they support the same things or even want the same things. NK propaganda plays this tune, quite skillfully, and specifically for the SK left, pretty all day every day.
As a group, my impression of SK citizens is that they are far from fools. Even some of those who voted for Moon still harbour (if we are to believe the surveys) doubts about his NK policy, and some even have strong doubts about the NK leadership (maybe things are beginning to change). The only tiny little ray of light in Moon’s speech is that he says he is not willing to talk peace treaty and/or unification until denuclearization is assured. What that really means, however, is far from clear. If the lefties turn out to be the strong voices in cabinet, then we are entering a period of grave crisis, potentially leading to war. If on the other hand Moon is, as I think he is, talking out of both sides of his mouth at once, then he will keep talking Sunshine while the Trump administration follows up on its actions of this week, that is, going after the Chinese banks and companies that launder NK’s money. That is a strategy that will take something like a minimum of two to three years to reach maximum pressure, but it has the potential to unravel the entire regime: if the police cannot pay their bully boys, if KJU can’t pay his generals, then those folks, at least, will most likely follow their self-interest. Will Treasury keep turning the screws? Will it target the RGB laundering network first and fast? Stay tuned.
Once again, apologies for the length of this. I’ve been mulling this stuff over for a long time, as I don’t want my Taejeon relatives to die in the war’s first strike, as they probably will if it comes to war.
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Well we know for sure where president Moon has his head.
Is this guy nuts or what. North Korea whole way of life is base on a show-down with America, they want nothing better than to take the shine off the Unite State of America, there is know way around it except for occasionally a few tricks to get something they need and will make war with anybody else who get in their way.
This guy need to understand who he is dealing with, which are the cream of the crop of that country. If Kim Jong Un did want to make peace, he probally would be shot. If this country make it’s way Back to a normal country with or without the South only then the two Could talk about passing the olive branch. But not with those oligarchs.
Just to get a foot-whole in that country, you would probably have to kill a hundred thousand or more from the top down to get your foot in the door. And I would assume that that would be on the cheap for human life is concern. Now if I would use Colin Powell doctrine more like a million to be on the safe side, to splash civil unrest.
Not now. Kim is ways worst than his grandfather and father, he got that way from hard core indoctrination from his power base. How can he suggest peace when he has kill his family member for even whispering it in close room, reason is his uncle and aunt was given to hungry dogs. Just my thoughts.
I see no edit box
Can’t negotiate until the North proves it wants peace by agreeing to disarm and invites free inspections. And pony rides.
I’m all for it. Honestly, I’d like nothing better than to see ROK and US soldiers destroying KJU and that regime, but I always believe military action should be the last resort. Every single opportunity to negotiate should be pursued, even though we know it will fail, because we are the morally superior regime. When the fatman is strung up and there are dead ROK and US soldiers, I don’t want anyone to be able to say we missed an opportunity for a peaceful resolution.
Moon has got to be acting in bad faith here. He knows that we have been round this four or five times already, that negotiations, even when you give NK everything it asks for, don’t work. They always renege on their promises, and they keep on building those rockets. So how would these negotiations actually work? KJU “agrees” to a freeze if USFK leave; but he wants the Yankees out before he will finalize. So will Moon actually try that? You bet he will. He will paint it over in nice colors, and put sparklies on it, and there will be detailed timetables, etc., etc., but in the end the demands from NK will be simple: emasculate yourself and maybe, just maybe, we will talk about a freeze. So the negotiations ploy is either folly (always possible with Moon’s supporters), or it’s a bad faith statement; especially given the statement he agreed to after meeting with President Trump. Personally, I’m leaning more towards folly than anything else because after all, what are the optics of (1) having an ICBM test (2) calling an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss same and then (3) announcing feelers for negotiation.
The possible connection between (2) and (3) might be simply that the anti-American lefties in Cabinet suggested – during their “emergency” meeting – that this is what they think Moon should do. So — foolishness. Then too, the Cabinet members are like Moon’s base, and the announcement could also be premised on chilling them out in part because he knows that over the long term (ie, the next four years until an election), there can’t be negotiations without appeasement and, in effect, capitulation. He’s playing, in short, a dangerous game, and I don’t believe for an instant he is truly sincere about any of this.
I think you are on to something hear. Moon is clearly a friend of nK
Wow, reward bad behavior. With a peace treaty UN mandate goes away, no need for US troops and lose basing rights to operate out of Japan against Korea (in the event of war). Moon is either the biggest idiot or in league with nK….
Someone wrote an excellent comment on Moon’s speech, took it apart into pieces, and is getting downvoted for some reason.
https://www.reddit.com/r/korea/comments/6lx6z2/moon_jaeins_berlin_speech/?st=j4ugospq&sh=946159e4
Damn, that is a great take apart of that moron’s speech. Spot on on every point!
I just went through some of the posts there and that site is really a nightmare of young leftist Koreans and foreigners. They downvote anything that doesn’t cater to their political slant.
Very true, if that is representative of the South Korean thinking there will no more South Korea in 5 years.
It’s a good dissection of the speech. The only question for me is, who is Moon talking to? NK is certainly not going to respond to those overtures as Moon states them, but only going to respond to it as a potential way to create a wedge between US and SK. The other audience is, of course, the liberal left in SK. I have friends on both sides of the political divide in SK, and on the Moon side, they all pretty much say the same thing he does. (1) if it happened in Germany it can happen in Korea (2) there is nothing wrong with the NK people, and it is the people who yearn for unification (3) cultural exchanges and economic projects are the way to get NK leadership to see the light because (4) at bottom, NK leadership is like any other, they want the best for their people.
This is going to take me a while to lay things out, so apologies for the length, in advance.
And those are items of faith for those on the political left. Part of me, the part the saw the 60s, wants this to be true, and yearns for it just like many SK citizens do. But the premises are fundamentally flawed.
On (1), there were easy contacts between East and West Germany, and no particular punishments for osties who wanted to watch WG television, etc. As well, there was a fairly well-developed network of resistance, a lot of it organized through the churches, that kept resisters in contact and ready to capitalize when the EG state began its collapse. Nothing like that network exists in NK, and currently there is no way to help organize it. Long term, yes, maybe setting up a digital network that the NK state can’t shut down will help create similar conditions. But Moon’s government, so far as I know, isn’t doing anything like this.
On (2), it’s hard to disagree, except that there are now some fairly savvy entrepreneurs in NK who are more than a little worried that if unification ever were to happen, SK carpetbaggers would swoop in, bankrupt the nascent merchant class, and buy everything in sight.
On (3), even NK has lately turned down the idea of such sports and cultural exchanges, mostly because they no longer need it. They have enough nuclear and missile leverage to exert pressure on an SK government which, based on this speech, seems all too willing to to kowtow.
But (4) is the real kicker in the unification game. NK is not, repeat not, a state. It is a family-run criminal conspiracy which maintains its power by allowing and encouraging its own “elites” to run their own criminal conspiracies, and which doesn’t give a crap about its citizens and what they want, feel, need, dream about, etc. NK is what you get when you live in gangland. No law, no freedom, no hope, really, even for merchants who are making money, because the criminals can shake you down and take your money at any time. The only “state” it resembles is a feudal one, a Joseon one, a Carolingian or Saxon one. So why would the officials and elites of such a “state” change their minds about the best way to do business, just because of a few soccer matches, or because of a successful joint venture or two, when they have everything they need just keeping things as they are? Moon’s fundamental problem, and the difficulty with his supporters, and millions of well-intentioned SK voters is that, in the face of all the evidence, he and they are willing to believe that the majority of humans are well intentioned (like themselves) and thus, open to change, to persuasion, to a change of heart. Most lefties in SK that I’ve spoken to are fairly convinced that what is preventing said change of heart is the bitterness NK feels about the Americans; and many if not most of those supporters are also anti-American, without really thinking about the actual (relatively small) role the US now plays in SK. Now, in support of the hopeful view, I’m quite willing to concede that truly evil people are quite rare. They do, however, alas, exist. And the people running NK right now are truly evil people. What Moon and his supporters need is a serious shock of some kind, something which will show them the evil so plainly that it cannot be denied, something strong enough to knock them out of their anti-American rut. They never seem to stop to think that just because they and the NK leadership are anti-American, that doesn’t mean they support the same things or even want the same things. NK propaganda plays this tune, quite skillfully, and specifically for the SK left, pretty all day every day.
As a group, my impression of SK citizens is that they are far from fools. Even some of those who voted for Moon still harbour (if we are to believe the surveys) doubts about his NK policy, and some even have strong doubts about the NK leadership (maybe things are beginning to change). The only tiny little ray of light in Moon’s speech is that he says he is not willing to talk peace treaty and/or unification until denuclearization is assured. What that really means, however, is far from clear. If the lefties turn out to be the strong voices in cabinet, then we are entering a period of grave crisis, potentially leading to war. If on the other hand Moon is, as I think he is, talking out of both sides of his mouth at once, then he will keep talking Sunshine while the Trump administration follows up on its actions of this week, that is, going after the Chinese banks and companies that launder NK’s money. That is a strategy that will take something like a minimum of two to three years to reach maximum pressure, but it has the potential to unravel the entire regime: if the police cannot pay their bully boys, if KJU can’t pay his generals, then those folks, at least, will most likely follow their self-interest. Will Treasury keep turning the screws? Will it target the RGB laundering network first and fast? Stay tuned.
Once again, apologies for the length of this. I’ve been mulling this stuff over for a long time, as I don’t want my Taejeon relatives to die in the war’s first strike, as they probably will if it comes to war.