Tweet of the Day: Secretary of Defense James Mattis Responds to North Korean Nuclear Test
Stiffening alliance response to North Korea https://t.co/fE6cLBvBQY
— Patrick Cronin (@PMCroninCNAS) September 3, 2017
Stiffening alliance response to North Korea https://t.co/fE6cLBvBQY
— Patrick Cronin (@PMCroninCNAS) September 3, 2017
Until I see USFK starting a non-combatant evacuation operation, I see no reason for Kim Jeong-eun to take anything Mattis or Trump says too seriously. No NEO means that we’re not leaning forward to do anything punitive. Sanctions are bullshit, unless they include a comprehensive land-sea-air blockade of North Korea.
If I don’t see the ROK making similar moves, then they are not taking things too seriously, either.
That having been said, as I’ve pointed out, before he was shit-canned, Bannon did make the observation that “Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.”
As far as Kim Jeong-eun is concerned, the US in general, and Trump in particular have an enormous credibility problem.
Watching USFK is the thing, maybe not NEO per se but USFK’s going to be in motion before the RoK will on anything.
If Bannon was making similar “revelations” then he deserved to be fired. His statement on the Korea Situation is neither visionary or helpful. You can’t sit there waiting for the perfect solution because if you do, you’re never going to do anything. There is no perfect solution. At some point the stupidity of South Korea needs to be discounted.
And shouting “they got us” is flat out irresponsible. Bannon should be sanctioned for being that careless. ❓
Bannon was the only person in the administration calling a spade a spade, which is why I suddenly thought the man might have something like integrity in addition to being an ideologue. Everybody else was blowing smoke with their “all options on the table” bullshit. There are only 3 options: attack NK and deal with the consequences, do nothing and wait for nuclear blackmail, or appease. I don’t see a 4th one.
“Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes”
America First.
OK. Solved that. Start the airstrikes.
America has always had a “fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” attitude with little concern for anyone over there.
It kinda works.
In the end, it is foolish to sit around while a bully threatens to kick your àss as you watch him sharpen a stick.
North Korea can, or almost can, bring America to its knees with an EMP burst. Very soon, the blackmail will start. Every demand will be followed by “or the Imperialist gangsters will return to the primative life due to the glorious power of our revolutionary EMP burst!” And they will be right.
Considering the current social dynamics in America, an extended blackout and all its concequences might even initiate a breakup of America… or, at best, force the transfer power back to states… after a lot of trauma on many levels.
Ten million people in Seoul is a small peice to avoid that.
That is not necessarily my thinking… but that is probably the thinking of those who brought you Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.
For those of you in Seoul, I hope you live in south-facing apartments and have a month of food and water handy.
Bannon’s comments were relevant to the pre-Clinton era DPRK.
Look at Somalia, no one gives a crap about Somalia until they start up with the buccaneering. If Somalis want to live in a toilet let them. If North Koreans don’t care enough to at least attempt to overthrow a horrible regime why should anyone else care?
That was pre-Clinton DPRK, even today no one really cares about the North Korean people so the only thing that anyone should care about in respects to the DPRK government is their ability to F with others. They are on a 24-hour clock right now with earmuffs on moving forward with capabilities to F with the US.
That 50% of the population of South Korea is in Seoul is their own stupid fault. Even right this second they aren’t doing a damn thing to lessen the impact of a DPRK first strike. The RoK’s not only done nothing but they’ve fallen behind and are now incapable of defeating the DPRK in a 1v1.
The RoK’s a lost cause, stuck in the victim mindset, too lazy to ensure proper defense of its own nation. I’m sorry but when it comes to either being under constant threat from the worst nation on the planet or being the trigger for the deaths of fools who built up a capital 30mi from the border of a hostile nation I vote to pull the trigger.
Like I said before guys, if no one truly cares about the people of North Korea, then it’s a simple enough solution to cripple the North’s military capabilities without a single shot being lobbed at Seoul.
We seem to be pretty selective when we talk about “America First”, and it’s probably because things are more complicated than Fox News makes them. If we applied the yardstick of “America First” to every problem, then it would be fitting to:
1) Nuke Saudi Arabia (most of the 9/11 guys came from there, and we’re net exporters of oil now)
2) Nuke Iran (just because they can be a threat)
3) Nuke NK (they are a threat)
4) Nuke Russia (for old times’ sake)
5) Nuke Cuba (Cuban-Americans in FL vote early and often)
6) Make nuclear blackmail a regular menu item for any country that excites out ire.
Any beef with NK is going to fuck up SK pretty seriously. That will have generational follow-on consequences, starting with a general melt-down of the global economy.
And I have yet to hear from many of the countries that fought in the 1st Korean war saying that they’ll be in this one, too.
Trump has not called up the draft. The NG and reserves have not been federalized. USFK does not (as yet) seem to be on a war footing itself. By allowing 10’s of 1000’s of dependents on peninsula and building a pretty plush set-up in Osan and Pyeongtaek, USFK wasn’t exactly showing much of a “fight tonight” mindset. Otherwise people would still be living in tents and Quonset huts and shitting outside.
NK on the other hand gets a “standing start”. They’re ready, they’ve been ready. Their troops don’t need a Burger King, a fully stocked PX, lavish mess halls, swimming pools, DODDS schools, or POV’s for any troop who wants one.
When war starts, they’ll be coming down to take them. To the victor goes the spoils, as our president has said several times.
Bob,
Just like with my kids, I’ll let you think #3 on your list was your idea if it makes it any easier for you to accept it not only as a real possibility, but as the most effective and cleanest solution on the table.
#5 I haven’t heard of any alleged voter fraud from Cuban Americans. Not saying it hasn’t happened. Perhaps you should target you nuclear attack on cemeteries near large urban populations. That would stem the tide of zombie hordes that are conjured up by democrats to vote every 2 years.
Smokes,
Sadly I think you are right.
South Korea does nothing substantial to protect citizens from North Korea… and even fights against reasonable safeguards like THAAD.
This is the behavior of a rabbit, not a tiger.
…or maybe the SK strategy is to appear weak rather than aggressive. Maybe when the bombing starts, NK will attack US military bases in Korea and targets in Japan rather than fellow Koreans who are yelling “We are not the enemy!”
One wonders if that would work.
Burma Bob,
America First doesn’t require nuking anyone. About a half dozen carrier groups, cruise missiles, and a global network of bases can enforce that.
Is there really any possibility of NK invading SK? Can they get organized without 24/7 satellite coverage knowing about it? Can they bring tanks and men into SK on two-lane roads or by sitting duck boats faster than jets can arrive? What do they do once they arrive?
Shelling Seoul is a real concern… as there is means, motive, and opportunity. It is unclear if any of these exist for an invasion.
There is no need for a draft… or much of anything else. Any fight with NK will be an air war. South Korea can supply boots on the ground if there is an invasion either way.
You are certainly right about USFK… not really ready to fight tonight… unless you mean fighting against a guy having a beer in his hand or a girl on his lap.
Gents, prior to the 1988 Olympics the ROK and EUSA were organized to fight, and at least we had a fully-manned infantry division on the DMZ, and the rest of USFK all the way back to Waegwan was positioned to support combat. Now what we have is a token force occasionally beefed up whenever some asset comes in from off-peninsula. We also had tactical nukes (I was at Camp Page when WSD-K was still a thing).
I had been out of Korea for 20 years when I went back for a week or so in 2010. I borrowed a friend’s hoopty and went up to see my old stomping grounds and see people I knew in the Cheolweon above Pocheon, and then west to Paju. I was floored to see how much the area had developed, how many new bridges there were, and how many breakable assets had been put in. The children of the ROK’s I’d served with were just getting ready to go into the Army…which judging from the ROK units I visited north of Yeoncheon were kinder, gentler establishments. Everything was paved, and I didn’t notice many pre-positioned obstacles. I could drive a not-very-offroad vehicle all the way to the top of what used to be a documented jeep-eating mountain.
Subsequent visits to Seoul and other cities confirms my recognition that the ROKs have been in a fool’s paradise for the past 20 years, and that USFK has kind of aided and abetted the practice. Now just too much shit is within range of NK conventional ordnance, and judging form ROK citizens’ current reactions to the current situation, the society at large is not mentally prepared for what could happen.
As for relying on air power:
From roughly day 1 of the 1st Korean war we had air supremacy, but it still took 3 years to fight to a stalemate, ending with an armistice (not an overwhelming victory). I would note that we also have air supremacy in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we’re still there. A shockingly low number of American and allied aircraft have been brought down by enemy MANPADS and AAA, so that is not even a factor (this will be different in a fight with NK).
I’m not looking at this from either the war mongering or MAGA POV’s. How anyone could look at North Korea’s track record and not say “This is a country that can not have projection of WMD.” is beyond me.
If there were certain conditions to be met before we should consider using nuclear weapons, what would they be?
Should they only be a deterrent against mutual assured destruction, or could they be used on a belligerent, rogue nation that threatens lots of civilian lives on a regular basis and actually has the means to carry out their threats?
Compromise?
We begin with conventional, limited strikes against their nuclear research and launch facilities. The second they start shooting at Seoul, we pop off tactical nukes in key areas.
Reasonable? Thoughts?
Johnnyboy, the casual use of nukes to solve problems regular old bombs can solve with effort is not something anyone should feel confortable with. Others might get the idea that is an acceptable thing to lazily do when they don’t get their way.
On the other hand, it should be made clear to the baby nuclear powers that any use of their weapons upon anyone will see their major cities and military targets nuked. Get Russia and China on this program for maxium deterrence.
I don’t think we’re at the point of using nuclear ordinance. Short of a rogue asteroid or aliens I really think those bad boys need to stay in the silos as they’re just that bad.
We’ve other means of dealing with this of the kinetic, thermal, and electromagnetic varieties. Besides, we’d need the nuclear arsenal at full capacity, ready and aimed further to the north west of the DPRK because those two just don’t get it.
Destruction of North Korea’s global threat program is attainable but it’ll cost. We can reduce their retaliatory capabilities but not completely. That’s just what it’ll have to be. When we went into WW2 was it with the mindset “Ok, we’re going to do this but we can’t lose a single person! It’d be unacceptable…”
This is the prices to pay for 24 years of selfish ignorance.
Or ya know, we can sit and continue to demand sanctions and hint at cutting trade while cow-tow’ing and nothing will come of it and then we can finally see what the end game is for the DPRK, what it is they want out of this whole thing.
If shit does go down, I’m stealing the closest thing I can find to a black 73 Ford Falcon and heading out into the desert!
America first. We sold them out once. What’s stopping us doing it again? 😎 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%80%93Korea_Treaty_of_1905
Uhh we didn’t sell shit out.
Corea consistently told us to go F off and it wasn’t until after Japan parked a fleet of Ass-Whooping of the coast of 강화도 did they start signing treaties.
They signed a weak one in 1882 which only held us to assist in bringing an amicable agreement if a third party was giving them the biz:
https://books.google.com/books?id=9OdAAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA30
Taft-Katsura was a memo only and by that time it was too late to keep Corea out of the hands of Japan. Why should anyone have risked their people defending a nation that told everyone to go F off?
When you’re that guy on the island proclaiming “I’m not here to make friends!” don’t be surprised when your ass gets voted off. 😛
Well gee, Smokes. If you would take your time to read the agreement, seems to a normal person we had pretty good relations with “Corea.” Beside trying to sound informed WHAT’S YOUR POINT?! Go bully someone else. 😎
I don’t think this situation falls under casual use. This looks to be the most credible and dangerous threat since the cold war. If Kim can get a nuke over the west coast and set off an EMP, I don’t have faith that the US won’t eat itself when the food runs out.
But perhaps you guys are right. South Korea allowed themselves to fall into the position of so many people in the direct line of fire. We must do what is necessary to protect ourselves.
If we are approaching the situation with the mentality to not lose one single soul in the south, then nuclear appears to be the only option.
If we go it conventional, many in the south will die. Maybe we just have to steel ourselves to the possible outcomes.
The question remains, how do we sell a preemptive strike to the international community after the deed is done? Maybe that’s the angle Trump is prepping for at the moment.