Is it Time to Conduct A Preemptive Strike on North Korea?
That is what this retired Naval Captain is advocating for in his article published on the US Naval Institute website:
Limited strikes should be targeted carefully and focused on North Korea’s specific provocation. A good start would be to take out the next North Korean intercontinental test missile on its launch pad. Before making such a preemptive strike, however, careful consultation with allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, would be essential. Controlling escalation would require the adept execution of sound tactical and strategic plans that had already been established.
In the wake of such strikes, Kim likely would feel compelled to act. If rational, he would respond in ways that would not promote a wider war. Especially because this is an unknown factor, it would be wise to prepare for cyber and maritime aggressions similar to his more serious provocations in 2010. Such planning would dovetail with the development of sound preplanned responses to increase the odds of U.S. military success at this “escalate to deescalate” strategy. The nature of North Korea’s reaction to military strikes—rational or irrational—would shape U.S. and its allies’ policies to protect their citizens. [US Naval Institute]
You can read more at the link, but I to am skeptical of the claim that Seoul will be destroyed if a limited strike is conducted against the Kim regime. Kim knows if he attacks Seoul then a regime change war would be justified to remove him from power. A limited military response in response to a preemptive strike would allow Kim to save face while not triggering a regime change war.
I tend to think that if for example his nuclear and ICBM facilities are targeted he would respond by targeting the bases where the bombers came from with ballistic missiles such as Andersen AFB on Guam or US military facilities in Japan. I also think ballistic missile and even terrorism attacks against US bases in South Korea or Japan are a possibility.
I also think the ROK will not support a preemptive strike and will publicly make that known in an effort to not have military retaliation occur against South Korea.
So what does everyone else think? Is it time to conduct a preemptive strike on North Korea? If so what do people think the response would be?
There will be no pre-emptive strike. Trump is a wuss.
You really let a billionaire live rent-free in your head? Really?
Maybe you need to buy a puppy.
None of us are prophets and none of us know what Trump knows that might influence a preemptive strike. Making taunts like a sixth grader–on Christmas day–really makes you look like “old tbone”, not a good image to tattoo on your pseudonym…
As I said, there will be no pre-emptive strike. Trump is a wuss.
If we EMP the missile launcher, we will have plausible deniability. There are ways we could take out the missile and claim that we didn’t.
@NOT AN EXPERT
I have no idea what kinds of EMP weapons we have, but the rules of physics determine some things about them. They would have to put out an intense amount of energy so they would need an intense energy generator. A nuclear explosion would seem to suit that, but that would also be overkill, literally. The weapon will also have a range limit. If the energy is emitted in all directions (omni-directionally), such as from a blast, the range is much shorter. If the energy is focused and directed with an antenna, the range can be much greater and the damage confined, if you can figure out how to contain and control that nuke-like intense energy generator at the same time shielding the weapon platform from its energy.
At times in the past when the use of an EMP weapon had been speculated it turned out to be something much less exotic. For example, in Gulf War I, when Iraq’s electrical grid was disabled it was thought to have been done with an EMP. Now it is believed we simply dumped metallic strips onto their power lines and shorted them out.
There has been recent reports that our military has a microwave weapon that might be used against North Korea’s missile systems. Something that might fit in a cruise missile. It might be considered a form of electromagnetic pulse except the energy may not be anywhere near as intense as what we think of when we say EMP and the “pulse” is more of a long duration beam of energy. BTW, if the debris from the cruise missile is recovered in North Korea it will be hard to deny. If that cat is now out of the bag, a microwave (maybe even EMP) attack can be shielded against. It’s called a Faraday cage. Lining the walls of their sensitive facilities and equipment with metallic mesh and securely ground, surge protect and circuit break all of their incoming lines.
Back to the OP questions: “Is it time to conduct a preemptive strike on North Korea? If so what do people think the response would be?”
I don’t know what the correct response should be but I have a different view on the following statements.
and
If the intent of the pre-emptive strike was to take out the North Korean long range missile capability and it was successful then Guam would be safe from retaliatory strike. But Korea and Japan are left at risk to retaliation and collateral damage. They will probably want to have the greater say in the decision making. Considering the first statement above, no, Seoul won’t be completely destroyed in a limited strike, but the second statement does admit for the possibility of a missile attack in this densely populated city. That’s no small relief.
All of this speculation is based on the decision making of parties with differing agendas and concerns. And, possibly two of them may have impulse control issues.
JoeC, Seoul voted against us in the recent UN vote.
Should that give them more or less confidence in the influence tbey now have with Trump?
And if, as CH often points out, Trump’s only priority is making Americans safer, how long before American forces are drawn down to a reinforced company of MPs to share ceremonial functions at JSA?
Or just sitting at the Hump like we’re doing now.
Sure, if you don’t mind being blamed for all eternity as starting the war, go ahead and do a preemptive strike
POTUS likes doing unpresidented acts.
“POTUS likes doing unpresidented acts.”
You either spell words like they are mispronounced…
…or you are one linguistically elegant human being.
If it is the former, google “unpresidented”.
Anyhoo…
Yes, it is time to strike North Korea…
…but don’t market it as “preemptive”.
Market it as defensive.
“Gosh, we have been letting those little harmless missiles slide fo so long… but the one they were preparing looked like it could make it to LA… and they said America was going to drown in a sea of fire… so we got worried and figured we had better defend ourselves. That’s why we took out the missile… and the launchpad… and the research buildings… and cruise missiled the apartments of the scientists and technicians… and damaged the reactor beyond repair… and salted the earth. Did we do wrong?
Say, that’s a nice regime you got there… ‘be a shame if anything happened to it.”
Another thing: Trump should just cone out and say the truth…
“We really don’t actually care about human rights that much… except as a talking point to rally the liberals on demand… or poke the UN into some sort of lethargic outrage on an issue other than Isreal. South Korea can fret over their fellow Koreans… if they really care that much… or want to do anything about it. That’s between you all. Our only real concerns are American security and maintaining some form of global order to insure multinationals can keep peddling their crap. American security is only one regime change away. Let thst sink in. We will exchange some temporary disorder for longer-term stability… especially as the ruling elite will get advanced notice to game the stock market or preposition business dealings. So you don’t have a lot to work with here except cooperation.
I understand Sadam and Kadaffy got the short end of the stick… but as long as you keep your head down and don’t run your mouth about trading oil in something other than dollars, you will be ignored.
So your choices are to sit down and shut up… or be hung from your own statue.
And before you make that choice, keep in mind this is between you and us. Whatever you do to South Korea and Japan us their deal.”
The time to conduct a preemptive strike on North Korea is way overdue and maybe come and gone. It’s something that should have been done years and years ago. Shell an island? Here’s a few dozen cruise missiles. Sink a boat? Here’s another few dozen cruise missiles.
You can’t allow a dog to chew on the furniture for years and years and then suddenly decide to punish it one day. Training starts at day one.
@JoeC, considering all the bunkers the North Koreans have I doubt US air power could hit every long range missile launcher that they have. So I would fully expect they would be able to retaliate with ballistic missiles. What they can’t hide is the big factories and production facilities that support their nuclear and missile programs. If those get blown up it will take them years to reconstruct the facilities. It will also limit how many missiles they fire in retaliation because they can’t regenerate their missile inventory.
By the way I am not advocating for a strike, I just don’t buy the fireball Seoul theory that many so called experts peddle whenever a preemptive strike is discussed. I think a preemptive strike should be an option of last resort and the Trump administration is currently cycling through all the options faster than past administrations.
“You can’t allow a dog to chew on the furniture for years and years and then suddenly decide to punish it one day. Training starts at day one.”
Yes.
But with hard enough training an old dog can learn new tricks.
I’ve been ready for strike ever since “The Flower Shop” in “The Won” closed.