By Agreeing to Inter-Korean Summit, North Korea Has Flipped the Pressure Campaign Back On to the US

The fact that Kim Jong-un agreed to visit South Korea this time for the inter-Korean summit is a sign of how serious he is about signing a sanctions busting deal.  However, visiting the Peace House at Panmunjom is hardly equivalent to past South Korean leaders being paraded around Pyongyang as propaganda tools:

South and North Koreas have agreed to hold an inter-Korean summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom at the end of April, Cheong Wa Dae said Tuesday.

Pyongyang also expressed intention to hold talks with Washington over denuclearization, saying it could give up its nuclear weapons if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.

President Moon Jae-in’s special envoys, who visited Pyongyang for two days and met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, announced these agreements upon returning to Seoul.

“The two Koreas decided to hold the third inter-Korean summit at the Peace House in Panmunjeom at the end of April, and will have meetings of working-level officials to discuss details about it,” National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, who led the envoys, said in a press briefing.

“The two Koreas also agreed to set up a hotline between the leaders in an effort to ease military tension and have close discussion. They will have their first phone call before the summit.”  [Korea Times]

It seems that the Kim regime is eager to get their sanctions busting agreements to restart the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects going this year.  They are even willing to say they may consider denuclearizing in order to get an agreement:

North Korea showed its clear willingness for denuclearized Korean Peninsula, and made it clear that it would have no reason to have nuclear armament if military threats to the country are removed and the safety of its regime is guaranteed, according to Chung.

“Kim said denuclearizing the peninsula is teachings from the ancestors (his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il) and there is no change to it,” he said.

The North expressed intention to have candid talks with the United States to discuss denuclearization and to normalize Washington-Pyongyang relations. “The North Korean leader said denuclearization can be the topic of talks with the U.S.,” Chung said.

“He did not demand any specific conditions for talks. He said he wants to be recognized as a serious partner of dialogue,” Chung said.

Pyongyang clearly said while talks are ongoing, it would not carry out military provocations such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It was a change from its earlier stance of threatening military actions in opposition to Seoul and Washington resuming joint military drills, which have been delayed until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and Paralympics.  [Korea Times]

We all know the Kim regime is not going to give up their nuclear weapons.  Only apologists and the uninformed think this is actually a possibility.  What I think is going on is that in order to get the sanctions busing deal signed with the ROK, the Kim regime needs the Trump administration to agree to it.  Declaring they would consider denuclearizing appears to be a pretext to get the United States to agree to a “freeze deal” which would justify the ROK restarting the Kaesong Industrial Park and the joint tourism projects.  As I have long said the Kim regime wants a “freeze deal” because it busts sanctions while giving up little or nothing in return.

To further create the facade of how reasonable Kim Jong-un is he has also said he would not condemn the holding of the upcoming US-ROK military exercises:

“Kim said he understands South Korea and the U.S. will have to resume the military exercises in April in a usual scale,” Chung said. “We initially thought Kim would raise an issue of the drills and we would have to make him understand (no more delay or cancellation of the drills is possible), but we didn’t need to do so.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but holding the summit in April during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises was intentional.  I think Kim Jong-un may not have wanted to demand the exercises be cancelled so it doesn’t appear President Moon is giving in to North Korean pressure.  This protects President Moon from criticism from the political right in South Korea.   This doesn’t mean that Moon won’t later request to President Trump to cancel the exercises in the spirit of peace or whatever other reason he comes up with.

With Kim Jong-un giving the appearance of meeting US demands to talk about denuclearization it appears the Trump administration will have to agree to talks with North Korea.  Basically North Korea has flipped the Trump administration’s “Pressure Campaign” against the Kim regime back on the US.  Now the Kim regime with the aid of the South Koreans, North Korea apologists, most academics, and the media will be putting maximum pressure on President Trump to agree to a “freeze deal” in return for sanction busting agreements.

This would effectively eliminate all the sanctions and pressure the Trump administration has put on the Kim regime for little to nothing in return.  All the while the Kim regime can continue to develop and mass produce the nuclear and missile technology they already have.  If the Trump administration agrees to this it is basically deja vu all over again.