North Korea and South Korea Negotiating a Ban on Hostilities

It seems to me people are getting way ahead of themselves in regards to the upcoming Inter-Korean Summit ending the Korean War:

South and North Korea are discussing plans to announce an official end to the military conflict between the two countries that are still technically at war, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.

At next week’s summit between South Korea President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, the two neighbors may release a joint statement saying they will seek to ease military tension and to end confrontation, according to the report.  [Bloomberg]

Before people get all euphoric about the end of the Korean War it is important to realize South Korea cannot negotiate an end to the Korean War because they are not a signatory to the Armistice Agreement.  They will need China, the United States, and United Nations to agree to it as well.  So what exactly is being negotiated?:

“We are devising and discussing various ways to develop the security situation surrounding the peninsula into a permanent peace regime,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “One such way may be changing the armistice agreement to a peace treaty, and we are reviewing the possibility of it.”

But he said South Korea alone cannot decide on ending the war as the issue requires close discussion with countries directly involved, including North Korea.

Although the armistice was signed by North Korea, China and the United Nations Command, without South Korea, the official said it is undeniable South Korea is one of the countries directly involved.

“But the two Koreas alone cannot decide on signing a peace treaty, so we may have to seek a three-party or four-party agreement if necessary.”

He noted that when Moon’s special envoys visited Pyongyang in March, Kim himself said his country would not take military action against the South.

“In the joint declaration to be announced by Moon and Kim after the summit, we want to include an agreement to ban hostilities, although it is not known yet whether we can use the term ‘end of the war,'” the official said. “However, we expect to include such an agreement in some form of expression.”  [Korea Times]

That is the key term being negotiated, “a ban on hostilities”.   I would be surprised if President Trump signs up for a peace treaty ending the war without verifiable denuclearization by North Korea.  The Kim regime probably understands this as well.  I think what the Kim regime may be trying to do is at least get an agreement to ban hostilities in order to make it more difficult for President Trump to launch a strike when they inevitably break whatever agreement they sign up for.

If the past is any indication of the future, they will break the agreement after receiving the aid they want and blame the US or ROK for its failure for some imaginary reason.  The ban on hostilities could then possibly constrain the US President from responding militarily while the Kim regime continues to break the agreement.  If the US does strike anyway the Kim regime can then claim that the US broke the hostility agreement and thus justify them expanding their nuclear program and taking whatever hostilities they want.  In the minds of the Kim regime, they win either way.