CSIS Expert Says that Irrational Exuberance Over Korea Peace Talks “Is a Bubble that Also is Likely to Burst”

There is a great guest posting over at One Free Korea that I recommend everyone read.  It is from Tara O an ex-US Air Force intelligence officer who now works for the CSIS.  In her posting she shares many of the same views I have about the current peace negotiations that are ongoing on the Korean peninsula.  Here is an excerpt from the posting:

First, who is actually saying these phrases? President Moon Jae-in, not Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un certainly can speak for himself and as the monopolizer of communications and information in North Korea, he would have no problem expressing his positions. Even during the Moon-Kim meeting, Kim never uttered the word “denuclearization” and it was only Moon who said “denuclearization” but not of “North Korea,” but of the “Korean Peninsula.”

Second, the actual term used is “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” not “denuclearization of North Korea.” When we hear the word “denuclearization,” we mean North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons. However, “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” is what North Korea has long said, and the two ideas are very different. North Korea wants “denuclearization” of South Korea (South Korea is the part of the “Korean Peninsula” that it wants to focus on). South Korea does not have nuclear weapons, but it does have civilian nuclear energy, and more importantly, it has the U.S. nuclear umbrella through extended deterrence. What North Korea wants is the removal of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and the U.S. military capability away from not only South Korea but the region. That is hardly denuclearization of North Korea. It does imply removing the U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula and ending the alliance.

The “complete” could also mean the extension of denuclearization to the United States, in which case, what Kim really wants is a nuclear arms control negotiation with the U.S., which in turn means he wants to be recognized as a nuclear power. This is in line with what he has told people in North Korea—that North Korea will be recognized as a nuclear power. North Koreans believe that Kim’s meeting with Trump is about North Korea being recognized as a nuclear power.  [One Free Korea]

I highly recommend reading the whole thing at the link.