Is North Korea’s Ultimate Goal to Be Pakistan?

I would think that North Korea would be jubilant if a deal was agreed to with President Trump that leaves them with a Pakistan like nuclear arsenal:

So are there any models of “rogue” regimes with nuclear programs that might appeal to North Korea? The answer is yes. But, unfortunately, it’s a state that kept its nuclear deterrent intact: Pakistan. If Pyongyang is weighing up two possible futures—Libya vs. Pakistan—it’s not much of a choice.

Pakistan began to seriously pursue nuclear weapons in the 1970s, motivated by a desire to deter its more powerful rival India, as well as match India’s nuclear capability. The Pakistani politician Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who later became prime minister, claimed, “If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves—even go hungry—but we will get one of our own.” In 1998, on a clear and bright day in the Chagai district, Pakistan carried out a series of nuclear tests. Pakistan’s chief scientific officer said “All praise be to Allah” and pushed the button, causing the mountain to shake in a vast explosion.

In 2016, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimated that Pakistan had 130 to 140 warheads and predicted that it would nearly double its arsenal by 2025. Islamabad could deliver nuclear weapons by medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, F-16 fighters, and tactical systems for short-range use on the battlefield.  [The Atlantic]

You can read more at the link, but President Trump has said that he wants North Korea to follow the South Korea model of using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.  So the Pakistan model is likely off the table.  However, if the Pakistan model is being considered, from the US perspective leaving North Korea with a short range nuclear arsenal is in the US’s interest since these missiles  cannot target the US mainland, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam.

However, the Pakistan model would not solve the issue of proliferation.  Strict inspections would be needed to ensure nuclear technology is not being proliferated.  What kind of inspections will the Kim regime agree to?  The other major issue with the Pakistan model is would the North Koreans agree to give up medium range missiles that could target Japan?  I just don’t see the President Trump agreeing to any deal that will allow the North Koreans to keep nuclear weapons to target Japan with, not only because they are a US ally, but because of the multiple US military bases in Japan.

The final issue I foresee is trying to get a Pakistan model deal passed through the Senate as a binding treaty.  I don’t think President Trump could get enough support of such a deal in the Senate especially in a Congressional election year.

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J6Junkie
J6Junkie
6 years ago

That would be the motherboard for Fatty. Can’t see Trump agreeing to that.

J6Junkie
J6Junkie
6 years ago

*motherload

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