A Look at How President Carter Failed to Remove US Ground Troops from South Korea

Over at the Diplomat there is an interesting article published about former US President Jimmy Carter’s failed attempt to remove US ground troops from South Korea during his term in office:

With U.S. President Donald Trump once more touting his desire to withdraw the 28,500 U.S. troops currently stationed in South Korea, it is perhaps worthwhile briefly examining the last time an American president attempted to remove U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula. U.S. President Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s was ultimately stopped by congressional obstruction, the Pentagon, and the intelligence community, among others, from implementing a troop withdrawal policy he had repeatedly promised during his presidential campaign in 1976. Put otherwise, and to use 21st century Trumpian parlance: the so-called “deep state” stopped Carter from executing his plans.

During the 1976 presidential campaign — the same year two American soldiers were axed to death by North Korean soldiers in the demilitarized zone — Carter repeatedly voiced his desire to pull out the 40,000 American soldiers (out of which only 15,000 were combat troops) from South Korea, where they served as a de factotripwire to deter a North Korean invasion. For example, at a Foreign Policy Association luncheon that year Carter declared: “I believe that it will be possible to withdraw our ground forces from South Korea on a phased basis over a time span to be determined after consultation with both South Korea and Japan.”  [The Diplomat via a reader tip]

You can read much more at the link, but basically the intelligence community changed its assessment to state that North Korea had a military advantage over South Korea and removing US ground troops would only increase their advantage.  This gave opponents of Carter’s troop removal plan the backing they needed to oppose and eventually stop it.  President Carter has always been skeptical of the assessment and how the bureaucracy circled the wagons to stop his troop withdrawal strategy.

Carter wanted to pull out the ground troops to put pressure on South Korean President Park Chung-hee to implement democratic reforms.  Carter may have failed in his quest to remove US ground troops, but he did indirectly succeed in getting Park Chung-hee removed from office.  In October 1979, Park was assassinated by the Korean CIA chief Kim Jae-gyu as part of a coup attempt against him.  After the coup attempt failed, Kim said one of the reasons for the coup was to restore the US-ROK relationship that had been so badly damaged by Park’s rule.

So are there any lessons President Trump could learn from Carter’s failed bid to remove US ground troops from Korea if he decides to do that?  I don’t think so because of how different the circumstances are.  It is clear today that South Korea has a conventional military advantage over North Korea thus muting concerns that US military leadership may have.  When former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld moved entire combat brigade from South Korea in 2004 to send to Iraq there was little pushback because of the ROK military advantage.

If President Trump does decide to remove US troops from Korea as part of a larger deal over North Korea’s nuclear weapons, I suspect there would be little pushback compared to what Carter experienced.