An Analysis of the Joint Statement Between President Trump and Kim Jong-un
Below is the statement that President Trump and Kim Jong-un signed during their summit in Singapore with my comments below each point:
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Here is the first part of the statement:
1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
There has been a lot of talk about the US opening an embassy in North Korea. This line seems to open the door to this possibility if North Korea behaves of course. An opening of an embassy would symbolize the normalizing of relations between the DPRK and the US which is why I don’t think this will be something happening in the near term. Once the DPRK makes irreversible decisions to end their nuclear program than I think this will become a possibility.
2. The United States and the DPRK will join the efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
This is something that President Moon Jae-in and the Kim regime has been actively pushing for. Professor B.R. Myers has written extensively on this, but Moon wants to eventually establish a North-South Confederation. This is why him and the Korean left have been attempting to amend the ROK constitution to make this happen. One of the changes they have proposed was changing this passage in the ROK constitution:
“The Republic of Korea shall seek national unification, and shall formulate and carry out a peaceful unification policy based on the free and democratic basic order.”
In the proposed revision the word “free” would be removed which would open the door to the Kim regime maintaining power in North Korea after confederation with their own form of democracy. President Moon and his left wing supporters will never admit to this, but that is the only rational reason why they would want this change in the ROK constitution.
Should this matter to President Trump? It seems that from the US perspective if the DPRK ends its nuclear and ICBM programs then it should be left up to the ROK to decide their own future. If the ROK public wants a confederation that sees billions of their taxpayer dollars going up North to support the Kim regime that will continue to maintain a massive conventional military force to threaten them with, then so be it. Remember the Kim regime is only going to agree to a confederation on their terms.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panumunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclerarization of the Korean Peninsula.
Notice that the wording of this statement is “work toward” which makes no demands of the Kim regime to actually denuclearize. So far the North Koreans have only taken denuclearization actions that are easily reversible. I think that in response the US will only make concessions that are easily reversible. I don’t think the US will drop sanctions until concrete actions are taken by the Kim regime to eliminate their nuclear weapons such as shipping nuclear material to a third country. The DPRK and the ROK have long wanted a “freeze deal” that would allow the North Koreans to keep their nukes in return for dropping sanctions. I have so far seen no indication of an agreement of a “freeze deal” from this summit. If the US drops sanctions against North Korea for little to nothing in return than this will be a huge win for Kim Jong-un.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
It will be interesting to see how this is executed because in the past the US stopped the recovery work because of the ridiculous fees that North Korea demanded. The North Koreans know exactly where the bulk of the remains are because the US military buried a large number of casualties in marked cemeteries before evacuating North Korea after the Chinese intervened in the war.
To be able to repatriate these remains to their family members the North Koreans have been demanding inflated prices which just shows how low the Kim regime is willing to go to make money. The work to recover the remains ended in 2005 with 220 remains recovered.
As recently as 2014 the Kim regime was trying to get the US to restart recovery of the remains threatening to let them get washed away. It looks like the Kim regime has now convinced the Trump administration to restart the remains recovery, but at what cost?
Final Analysis
My analysis on this is that the Trump administration would love to have North Korea completely denuclearize and give up their ICBMs in exchange for dropping of sanctions and being reintegrated into the world community. However, I am confident based on the people that President Trump has around him, that he is not naive to the past history of the Kim regime.
I think this is the one final chance for the Kim regime to make peace with the United States and if they try to play their old games again, that will be the excuse the President needs to take military action against them. This kind of reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during the Clinton administration. Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader, Yasser Arafat was given the opportunity to make peace with the Israelis during the 2000 Camp David Summit and did not do it which led to the Second Intifada. This gave the Israelis the excuse they needed to crush the Palestinians which they did.
Does anyone see any similarities between these two photographs?
Kim Jong-un currently has the opportunity to seek peace with the United States just like Arafat did with the Israelis. Arafat could not bring himself to make peace with the Israelis despite the great deal that was offered to him that gave the Palestinians nearly everything they wanted. Arafat it was argued did not agree to the deal because it jeopardized his leadership status by being responsible for building a state along side Israel instead of a deadly, authoritarian opposition which is all he knew how to do.
Will Kim Jong-un accept denuclearization in return for building his state after the dropping of sanctions? Time will tell, but like the Israelis I would not be surprised if President Trump isn’t ready to take military action if the North Koreans return to a provocation cycle again. Just like with the Palestinians, I think things will end badly for the Kim regime if that is the course of action they choose to take.
Final Note: By the way did anyone else feel like Kim Jong-un looked like he was a contestant on the Celebrity Apprentice show during this summit? If they would have let Dennis Rodman into the summit it truly would have a been a Celebrity Apprentice episode.
This could be good, if all sides are serious. I am still very very very to the 10th power suspicious of nK true intentions. Maybe this will be the change that gets things moving in the right direction. As long as there is a what if plan for if (when) nK goes back on the deal…..
Furthermore, I am hoping that Trump’s deal with nK undercuts commie moon and his dreams of making South Korea a commie utopia. After all commie moon and his minions have worked to bring the glory of communism to South Korea, to see nK shake of the unbearable burden of their communist system would be priceless.
I think Kim wants his own form of Korean Deity Communism but with the economic growth that happened in China. No way he’s throwing out the Communism Koolaid that he’s been feeding Commie Moon.
These points as with so many past agreements are to interpretive. It’s an empty document.
Rascal1212, one doesn’t cure cancer by merely diagnosing it. If it is to be cured, it can take years of chemo, radiarion, surgery, and physical therapies.
When a farmer plants crops, he cannot stop back in an hour to harvest them. It requires watering, fertilizing, weeding, and nurturing the plants over several weeks or months before the crops yield a harvest.
In the same way, one does not denuclearize a country with the signing of a treaty.
Maybe you should look at why previous efforts failed and what might be different in this effort.
And then, in the interests of being intellectually honest and consistent, wait and see if this effort bears different fruit than those of the past.
And if you think one can negotiate with an Asian leader while publicly insulting him, you probably don’t have any successes in negotiations.
@Rascal1212, yes the document does not have any hard commitments but Trump had to start somewhere to give the Kim regime the chance to denuclearize. We also do not know what confidential spoken agreements may have been discussed. As long as Trump does not commit to dropping sanctions for little to nothing in return like past administrations then I don’t have a problem with this.
I really think that Moon and Kim are going to try and get Trump to drop the sanctions without any irreversible actions on their nuclear program in return by North Korea. I think the Kim regime will continue with dog an pony show acts of denuclearization to attempt to sway Trump they are serious about denuclearization and hope he drops the sanctions.
SK and DPRK jointly agreed to no more hostilities some weeks ago. MJI has taken down the speakers on the DMZ.
What has KJU done? If hostilities have ceased there is no need for DPRK artillery on the DMZ. Has there been any movement yet? HELL no why not. Should be more incentive as there will be no UFG and no more on pen joint exercises. Now CFC can desolve.
What have is a gulible showboat President that has made KJU the darliing of the press and a world celebriity. He has done a makeover on a brutal butcher making him a savior to be admired.
I have admired President Trump but can no longer. He has fell head first into the same trap used many times before.
TWO LIARS WALKED INTO A ROOM.
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@Rascal1212, removing speakers from the DMZ is something easily reversible just like everything that the DPRK has done in response. The DPRK has done things if you haven’t noticed like the dog and pony show at Punggye-ri, stopping testing, and now the destruction of the test stand.
Likewise cancelling joint exercises is easily reversible if Kim does not live up to whatever confidential spoken agreements have been made. Plus the term joint exercises has not even been defined yet. For all we know UFG could still happen but with on pen only forces or less forces from off pen.
Removing DPRK artillery from the DMZ is something I believe would be discussed well after whatever post-denuclearization looks like if it ever happens. Kim has to keep his conventional deterrence posture to keep a strong negotiating hand against the ROK as well as not look weak to his own military.
As far as dissolving CFC and withdrawing I think it is more likely that happens less because of Kim and more because of the ongoing cost sharing negotiations with the ROK. Trump seems to have dug in on making the ROK pay more for USFK upkeep, so the threat of withdrawal has to appear to be real to keep the pressure on the ROK to pay more.
I say save your Trump criticisms for if he drops sanctions and allows Moon to give the Kim regime billions in aid or withdraws USFK for little to nothing in return. We haven’t reached that point yet.