Why Continued North Korean Missile Development Should Not Be Surprising

Via a reader tip comes news that the US media is trying to make big news out of the fact that the North Koreans are continuing to develop missiles:

U.S. spy agencies are seeing signs that North Korea is constructing new missiles at a factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, according to officials familiar with the intelligence.

Newly obtained evidence, including satellite photos taken in recent weeks, indicates that work is underway on at least one and possibly two liquid-fueled ICBMs at a large research facility in Sanumdong, on the outskirts of Pyongyang, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe classified intelligence. [MSN]

I don’t know why anyone would consider this big news? The North Koreans never agreed to stop missile development. The only thing agreed to was to work towards denuclearization. The definition of what denuclearization means is still be negotiated.

Not everyone is surprised by this news though:

Several U.S. officials and private analysts said the continued activity inside North Korea’s weapons complex is not surprising, given that Kim made no public promise at the summit to halt work at the scores of nuclear and missiles facilities scattered around the country.

The North Koreans “never agreed to give up their nuclear program,” said Ken Gause, a North Korea expert at the Center for Naval Analysis. And it is foolish to expect that they would do so — at the outset of talks, he said.

Mr. Gausse may be right about this not be surprising, but here is where I believe he makes an incorrect assessment:

“Regime survival and perpetuation of Kim family rule” are Kim’s guiding principles, he said. “The nuclear program provides them with a deterrent in their mind against regime change by the United States. Giving up the nuclear capability will violate the two fundamental centers of gravity in the North Korean regime.”

The nuclear program’s main purpose in my opinion was not to prevent regime change. The North’s conventional threat, mainly the artillery batteries located along the DMZ has prevented any regime threatening attacks for decades despite deadly provocations by the Kim regime over many decades.

Not everyone is fooled by the Kim regime’s intentions:

“We have this backward. North Korea is not negotiating to give up their nuclear weapons,” Lewis said. “They are negotiating for recognition of their nuclear weapons. They’re willing to put up with certain limits, like no nuclear testing and no ICBM testing. What they’re offering is: They keep the bomb, but they stop talking about it.”

The further analysis to this is that the Kim regime needs the nuclear weapons and a delivery system to threaten the United States to begin the negotiations that will lead to a peace treaty and eventual withdrawal of US troops. The removal of USFK is needed in order to realize the Kim regime’s ultimate goal of a confederation.  They needed a left wing administration in charge of the ROK and nuclear weapons to accomplish this goal, and they now have both.