The Significance of North Korea’s Testing of the Iskander (KN-23) Ballistic Missile

Here is the latest provocation from North Korea:

North Korea on Thursday fired two new short-range ballistic missiles, Seoul officials said, in an apparent move to put pressure on the United States ahead of possible nuclear talks between the two sides.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that Pyongyang fired one missile toward the East Sea at around 5:34 a.m. and the other at 5:57 a.m. from Hodo Peninsula near its eastern coastal town of Wonsan. They flew around 430 kilometers and 690 km, respectively, both at an altitude of around 50 km. 

The test came 77 days after Pyongyang’s short-range missile launch in early May. (……..)

Experts have said Thursday’s launches appear to have involved the North’s version of Russia’s Iskander, a short-range, ground-to-ground ballistic missile known as KN-23, as it test-fired in May.

Yonhap

What is significant about the Iskander is that it is a solid fuel missile. What this means is that unlike a liquid fuel missile it does not need to be fueled before launching. The act of fueling missiles takes time and could be observed while a solid fuel missile can be simply rolled out and fired.

What About THAAD?

The Iskander also has a lower flight trajectory which gives it a shorter time of flight which reduces decision making time. In the article they claim the Iskander makes the THAAD system ineffective. The article fails to mention there are different missile defense systems for different threats. For lower flying trajectories that is what the Patriot missile batteries located around South Korea are for.

THAAD was never meant to be a magic bullet that engages all threats on the peninsula. THAAD engages targets at higher altitudes than Patriot. One of the main reasons it was deployed was because of the threat of lofted trajectory missiles that North Korea was testing.

Additionally, by using a lofted flight trajectory, North Korea could use medium-range and intermediate-range missiles to strike South Korean targets over shorter distances by firing them at higher angles. For example, on June 22, 2016, North Korea was able to limit the distance of the intermediate-range Musudan missile to around 400 kilometers (from a normal distance of more than 3,000 kilometers) by using this lofting method. In this scenario, the warhead is traveling at a high velocity by the end of its trajectory, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the Patriot missile system.

Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy

Now the North Koreans are testing a lower flying system that Patriot can engage, but once again it is not the flight profile that is of the most concern, it is the solid fuel capability that allows them rapidly fire these missiles with little early warning.

Why Test Now?

So why did the North Koreans fire this missile now? First of all the yet to be named joint US-ROK exercise is still scheduled to be executed next month. The exercise gives the Kim regime cover to conduct this test to further prove its capability. Additionally this keeps pressure on the Trump administration to give-in to North Korean demands to lift some of the sanctions in return for a freeze on missile testing.

Kim Jong-un has always said that he is waiting until the end of the year for a deal to be reached. If a deal is not reached he could restart ICBM testing. He is giving the Trump administration a preview of what he could start doing right in the middle of President Trump’s re-election campaign next year if a deal is not struck.