Reasons Why Kim Jong-un Will Likely Not Give Up His Nuclear Weapons

Anyone closely following North Korea knows they are not going to give up their nuclear weapons. The below article explains some of the reasons why:

“There seems to be a very subtle debate going on,” said Town, citing articles in North Korean press “that are really questioning the value of why are we giving away our nuclear deterrent, why are we working with these capitalists?” Other articles have pushed back, stressing “the value of diplomacy.”

Kim has expressed skepticism. In a speech in April, he said President Trump “continuously observes” that the two leaders are friendly. But Kim added that the U.S. is making one-sided demands and using the wrong “political calculations.”

Analysts say Kim’s own political calculations have made it hard to give up nuclear weapons.

Jean Lee, a former Associated Press correspondent who spent much time in Pyongyang, said North Korea’s propaganda described the nuclear program as “the one thing that he has told his people is protecting them from a foreign invasion.”

Giving up the nuclear program would undermine Kim’s legitimacy as a ruler, said Ken Gause, who studies the North Korean leadership for CNA, a research group based in Arlington, Va.

“I think he can dismantle parts of the program,” Gause said, but only in ways that are “not verifiable and not irreversible,” and “probably not near as much as we would want.”

To accept even a partial dismantling, Kim would need concessions from the United States, such as the lifting of economic sanctions against North Korea. “Kim is not moving an iota unless the U.S. put stuff on the table,” said Gause, “which means money going into the pockets of the elite because that’s the people he has to satisfy.”

NPR

You can read more at the link, but this is why North Korea wants a “freeze deal” in return for sanctions relief. With a freeze deal they give up nothing, they just suspend testing and get sanctions relief, probably the re-opening of the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Kumgang mountain tours. These were huge money makers for the regime before their closure.

If these projects are reopened, the North Koreans will behave for a while and cash up their regime and at a time of their choosing they will start another provocation cycle. However, every provocation cycle they feature better and better military capabilities due to the prior sanctions relief that has allowed them to pour money into weapons development.

President Trump appears to want to stop this cycle, but some in the administration appear to just want the problem to go away with a freeze deal and let someone down the road deal with the problem which has been the US policy for decades and that is what Kim Jong-un is counting on.