So, yeah, it’s gotten so bad in China that nobody is going to tell Xi Wolf Warrior Diplomacy is a terrible idea.
ChickenHead
3 years ago
China will eventually have no choice but to go to “war”… for social and economic reasons.
They will invade Taiwan and America will immediately launch cruise missiles at TSMC (as per agreement) to keep the PRC from controlling their ASML EUV LM.
The Chinese will claim they were attacked. It will devolve quickly.
Meanwhile, Russia will move into Ukraine.
Not an ideal situation… but it will keep the financial system from collapsing for another political generation.
So the US will only destroy TSMC in Taiwan and call it a day? You do realize that even if TSMC builds factories in the US, it will take years and years, worth hundreds of billions of dollars to recreate the EUV production to produce chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm, right? And still even then, it still won’t be enough to replicate the TSMC chip production in Taiwan. That will be something to see how the US will operate its economy without any chips. But of course, there’s still Samsung in South Korea which is expanding its foundry business to take over the responsibility from TSMC if Taiwan is taken over by China. But with all the American calls in this site for the US military to get out of South Korea, and let China have it, I don’t know, it doesn’t look good for the US right now.
ChickenHead
3 years ago
The goal of destroying TSMC (and especially the EUV LM) is to keep China from having access to it.
That would be worse than Apple missing a generation of smartphone or gamers not getting the next level of refresh rates.
There are still over 100 ASML EUV LM floating around. Somebody will fill the gap left by TSMC… and the most necessary chips will be a production priority.
Capitalism is a beautiful thing when left mostly alone.
Bonus: America won’t call it a day… but likely won’t attack much directly. That machine is a big worry. There Chinese must not be allowed to get it… even if that requires its destruction and the death of the Chinese soldiers sent immediately to secure it.
…or maybe it is packed with C4 along with a remote detonator just so a problem like a direct attack on Chinese troops won’t be an issue. Who knows?
setnaffa
3 years ago
Amazing how rapidly our resident ten-center jumps to attention to warn us away from discomfort…
Charliem
3 years ago
TSMC is constructing a facility in Arizona. It is to begin production in 2024. Five more TSMC factories are planned. Samsung also is building in the US, of course
“TSMC is expected to be one of several companies, including Intel Corp (INTC.O) and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS), competing for some of the $54 billion in subsides for the chip industry that advanced in the United States Senate last week.
Reuters previously reported that TSMC plans to build as many as six factories at the Arizona site over a 10- to 15-year span.”
Yes Charliem, 2024. If the war begins tomorrow, the US economy can wait until 2024? Without technical leadership from Taiwan who will now serve China, I wonder how effective those future US factories would really be?
China knows, and the US knows, the US can’t do nothing, if China takes over Taiwan. Those TSMC chip factories will be controlled by China, but the US needs those chips to keep the global economy going. If any slight chance the US do decide to bomb TSMC as Chickenhead claims, then the biggest beneficiaries will be Samsung and South Korea.
>Somebody will fill the gap left by TSMC… and the most necessary chips will be a production priority.
Do you even know that Intel failed to failed to break through 10-nano chips barrier, and they are still stuck on 14-nano? lol, you’re going to ask all the US chip manufacturers who depend on the foundries to turn back the clock 10 years? lol… while China takes over Taiwan’s 5-nano and 3-nano chips.
Is Gordon Chang willing to go to war over Taiwan?
So, yeah, it’s gotten so bad in China that nobody is going to tell Xi Wolf Warrior Diplomacy is a terrible idea.
China will eventually have no choice but to go to “war”… for social and economic reasons.
They will invade Taiwan and America will immediately launch cruise missiles at TSMC (as per agreement) to keep the PRC from controlling their ASML EUV LM.
The Chinese will claim they were attacked. It will devolve quickly.
Meanwhile, Russia will move into Ukraine.
Not an ideal situation… but it will keep the financial system from collapsing for another political generation.
So, there’s that.
So the US will only destroy TSMC in Taiwan and call it a day? You do realize that even if TSMC builds factories in the US, it will take years and years, worth hundreds of billions of dollars to recreate the EUV production to produce chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm, right? And still even then, it still won’t be enough to replicate the TSMC chip production in Taiwan. That will be something to see how the US will operate its economy without any chips. But of course, there’s still Samsung in South Korea which is expanding its foundry business to take over the responsibility from TSMC if Taiwan is taken over by China. But with all the American calls in this site for the US military to get out of South Korea, and let China have it, I don’t know, it doesn’t look good for the US right now.
The goal of destroying TSMC (and especially the EUV LM) is to keep China from having access to it.
That would be worse than Apple missing a generation of smartphone or gamers not getting the next level of refresh rates.
There are still over 100 ASML EUV LM floating around. Somebody will fill the gap left by TSMC… and the most necessary chips will be a production priority.
Capitalism is a beautiful thing when left mostly alone.
Bonus: America won’t call it a day… but likely won’t attack much directly. That machine is a big worry. There Chinese must not be allowed to get it… even if that requires its destruction and the death of the Chinese soldiers sent immediately to secure it.
…or maybe it is packed with C4 along with a remote detonator just so a problem like a direct attack on Chinese troops won’t be an issue. Who knows?
Amazing how rapidly our resident ten-center jumps to attention to warn us away from discomfort…
TSMC is constructing a facility in Arizona. It is to begin production in 2024. Five more TSMC factories are planned. Samsung also is building in the US, of course
“TSMC is expected to be one of several companies, including Intel Corp (INTC.O) and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS), competing for some of the $54 billion in subsides for the chip industry that advanced in the United States Senate last week.
Reuters previously reported that TSMC plans to build as many as six factories at the Arizona site over a 10- to 15-year span.”
https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-arizona-chip-factory-2021-06-01/
Yes Charliem, 2024. If the war begins tomorrow, the US economy can wait until 2024? Without technical leadership from Taiwan who will now serve China, I wonder how effective those future US factories would really be?
China knows, and the US knows, the US can’t do nothing, if China takes over Taiwan. Those TSMC chip factories will be controlled by China, but the US needs those chips to keep the global economy going. If any slight chance the US do decide to bomb TSMC as Chickenhead claims, then the biggest beneficiaries will be Samsung and South Korea.
Good for Samsung and South Korea.
Too bad for China.
Honestly too bad for Taiwan.
>Somebody will fill the gap left by TSMC… and the most necessary chips will be a production priority.
Do you even know that Intel failed to failed to break through 10-nano chips barrier, and they are still stuck on 14-nano? lol, you’re going to ask all the US chip manufacturers who depend on the foundries to turn back the clock 10 years? lol… while China takes over Taiwan’s 5-nano and 3-nano chips.