Think Tank Led War Game Shows Few Options If China Seizes Pratas Islands from Taiwan
Before any blockade or invasion of Taiwan would happen, the CNAS think tanks thinks the Chinese would first seize the Pratas Islands. It makes sense because the Chinese could use the international response to this as a trial balloon for them to see if they could get away with a follow on blockade of Taiwan:
The United States has “few credible options” to respond if China were to seize a set of islands administered by Taiwan in the South China Sea, underscoring the need for Washington and Taipei to build deterrence “against limited Chinese aggression,” according to the results of a war game conducted recently by foreign policy experts in Washington and the Asia-Pacific region.
The scenario was examined by the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, and detailed in a report published Tuesday. It supposes that Chinese forces invade the Pratas islands, capturing the 500 Taiwanese troops who are based there and establishing a military outpost.
It’s a theoretical dilemma for the Pentagon that “many China-watchers view as increasingly plausible” – and one that “reinforces the need for regular planning exercises between Taiwanese and U.S. personnel,” the report says.
The report comes at a moment of heightened tension between Washington and Beijing, with the United States opposing China’s military expansion in the region and China calling on the Pentagon to cut ties with Taiwan. The standoff has spotlighted the challenge U.S. commanders would face in responding to an incursion of the islands without provoking a full-blown war.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
If the US is really serious about defending Taiwan, why doesn’t the US station troops in Taiwan, recognize Taiwan as a separate independent country, and let China and the world know that if China attacks Taiwan, the US will defend Taiwan?
Why all the mixed signals? Put your words to where your mouth is.
KM, here is a primer on how the US government is supposed to work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ3Wjqp-4Fk
I understand that Beijing doesn’t offer anything like this; but you would look less foolish if you made the effort.
Declaring Taiwan and independent country and moving forward with putting a large U.S. troop presence on Taiwan could actually provoke the war no one wants.
China’s actions in Hong Kong is what has really screwed them. Now few people in the international community actually trust them to keep any agreements on any deal for the reintegration of Taiwan. Xi would probably have to leave power and trust built with a new leader. In the meantime the international community is trying to keep the status quo.
GIKorea, 50% of young Taiwanese men polled recently said they would not fight to defend their country if China attacks. Only 20% of Taiwanese believe that China will attack Taiwan. And about 35% of the Taiwanese actually support Taiwan uniting under China. Taiwanese have a military conscript period of 4 months – and even that is too long for them as many of them try to avoid their duty. Considering that Taiwan had decades to build its country’s defenses against a constantly threatening China, its military is in complete disarray. It’s questionable that Taiwan will even fight. This is exactly the same scenario that the Washington Post’s article claims about South Korea collapsing like Afghanistan. Taiwan fits the scenario of Afghanistan much better.
America’s motto in Afghanistan is that they can only help countries that can help themselves. I doubt the US will defend Taiwan. If Taiwan becomes part of China, nobody outside of China and Taiwan will see much difference.
KM: You’re not all that up on history, apparently. The United States, along with a number of other countries and the United Nations at one time recognize the government on Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. It was during the Nixon administration that the US president switched recognition from the Republic of China to the People’s Republic of China. Then the UN did the same, granting the PRC a permanent seat on the UNSC. The PRC currently, and has for some time, insists on what it calls “the One China policy”, meaning that any country that extends diplomatic recognition to the ROC will have its diplomatic recognition by the PRC withdrawn. As the PRC has become more of an ecomic powerhouse, that can be pretty serious for a small country. As for defense of the island, you might take a gander at the Taiwan Relations Act.
I wonder who fights harder? The Taiwanese army or Commie Moon’s army? Talk about being between a roxk and a hard place.
JohnHenry, Taiwan Relations Act never stipulates that US will come to help Taiwan during war. It just gives provisions for US to sell its military junk to Taiwan. Also, Taiwan had a history for stealing US military assets and spying for their mainland brethren:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-ex-deputy-defense-minister-probed-for-China-spy-contacts
https://www.france24.com/en/20110209-taiwanese-general-detained-spy-charges-china
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/how-taiwanese-veteran-pilots-defected-to-china-with-their-american-jets
IIRC, in the late 70s, a consortium of Israel, South Africa, and Taiwan actually had operational air-launched cruise missile “with conventional and special warhead capability.”
We already “know” Israel has “special weapons.” We know South Africa disposed of theirs. What makes anyone think, with ill-tempered Winnie Xi growling across the Taiwan Strait, that the folks in Taipei were so careless as to let those plans get lost and not keep them up-to-date?