ROK Drop Open Thread – July 22, 2022

This blog needs a Chinese voice.

From now on I will be that voice.

And while we’re on the subject… Looks like contact-tracing is off the menu…

Based on current research and statistics, here is a covid theory update that explains some unanswered questions.

Summer Wave 2022 is on track to beat Spring Wave 2022. The media has not admitted this yet but they are close to doing so. The official projections went from optimistic to now exceeding the progression of the previous wave (though this is not pointed out). The media is not yet talking about peak numbers which will almost certainly exceed the spring wave (600K/day 400K/7 day average).

Two things are starting to become clear:

– This is a Pandemic of the Vaccinated. The vaccine and boosters do little after 6 months. A booster two months to two weeks before the wave may offer 40-60% protection against the last strain. It is unclear how they will protect against the current and future strains. It will be less.

– Natural immunity to a previous strain is no magic bullet. It is not clear how natural immunity against alpha/delta/previous omicron strains will protect against the current strain. It appears natural immunity is better than the vaccination but also is less effective if the first exposure was to a strain of covid farther from the current strain, just like the vaccine.

It is becoming clear that politicians looking to aquire money, power, and control, are not lying when they say the pandemic is far from over.

Questions that are not fully answered:

– Is the vaccination or vaccination + booster better protection/short-term protection than natural immunity to alpha/delta/omicron?

Science says vaccine+ recent booster may be more effective than an alpha natural immunity. Natural immunity to Delta and previous omicron may be more effective than vaccine+booster.

– Does vaccination/etc reduce symptomatic infection more than natural immunity if it is caught?

Science says the same thing for symptoms as it does for infection.

It appears the vaccine without constant pre-wave boosters is not just worthless but harmful because the immune system is locked onto a distant strain and must produce ineffective antibodies from scratch instead of being full of booster-induced ineffective antibodies. The boosters will be increasingly ineffective against future strains as the alpha antibodies become less and less effective. At some point, the boosters will do nothing. Good luck, vaccinated.

But it is not all good for the naturally immune. Those who have natural immunity to alpha have a more broad-spectrum immunity but are still locked onto producing alpha antibodies (though not just for the spike protein). The same applies to delta and previous omicron. Without any booster-induced stimulation of the immune system, the naturally immune must also produce outdated spike antibodies from scratch. However, while the spike protein has moved on, other parts of the virus may not have. The naturally immune to previous strains may still be producing effective antibodies to these unchanged proteins.

What does the future hold?

Covid is going to move farther from alpha. The booster will become increasingly ineffective. Natural immunity will become increasingly ineffective, but perhaps at a slower rate.

And this explains a lingering mystery. What do the Chinese know that we do not which explains their impossible and self-destructive obsession with a Zero Covid Policy which locks down cities and destroys economy?

We know for certain omicron was made in a lab. We do not know the reason. Proposals range from an informal vaccine among lab workers to some organization wishing to end the pandemic by immunizing everyone.

Immunizing everyone via a highly transmissive but mild strain of covid could be with good intentions or very bad intentions, as we will see.

Since we know covid can be made to be more transmissive and less deadly, we also known it can be made more transmissive and more deadly.

Imagine a very deadly version of covid was released. What would happen?

The vaccinated and not “up to date” on their boosters would be at very, very high risk.

The vaccinated and up to date may still have no protection if the new strain was sufficiently distant from alpha.

The naturally immune would only have protection based on the closeness of the new strain to the strain they were first infected with, though not just against the spike protein.

China’s Zero Covid Policy ensures there is a pool of people who have never been exposed to covid. If they are exposed to a deadly strain, they will likely die. But the Zero Covid Policy also ensures a population that it didn’t work for who developed good natural immunity to the strain previous to the deadly strain. They will be the world’s most protected population, even more-so if the deadly strain is engineered with that in mind.

The rest of the world, between vaccines and no policy to develop a population resistant to each new strain, will be unprepared for a deadly strain.

China knew this from the beginning of the pandemic. This explains why they shut down their country over the flu. It isn’t the (non)deadliness of the disease they were worried about. It was maintaining a large pool of people who would not be exposed in anticipation of a future deadly strain once a few years of observing covid waves gave the knowledge of how it spread and how it infected people.

If any evidence or observations go against this theory, point it out now.

The next step is to prepare for what may be coming socially, economically, and logistically, if this happens (without sacrificing lifestyle if it doesn’t).

Stephen, unless you’re still bitterly clinging to the Russian Collusion Hoax that even the New York Times has publicly disavowed, there’s no “St.”

The real Petersburg, TX is up toward the Panhandle in Hale County.

Hope that helps.

And besides, the Rooskies and the CCP are on the same side now.

A sly dig at the GOP through rather off-key racism.

Well-played, my white-hooded correspondent…

I was really expecting something more profound; but at least it’s not the usual CCP-funded pap from their prison brigade…

Them ain’t jokes, boy. Them’s pig feces. And you ought not to put ’em in your mouth like that.

Now git along back home. Uncle Xi prolly has yer ten cents ready.

We know the vaccines and boosters don’t keep you from getting covid.

“But they never said you wouldn’t get covid. They said it would keep you out of the hospital and keep you from dying.”

Let’s look at the actual statistics on vaccinated vs non-vaccinated dead and hospitalized.

When we look at that, it seems the vaccine has some effect to keep you out of the hospital and keep you from dying.

Are they lying when the percentage of vaccinated in the hospital is lower than the percentage of vaccinated in the general population?

Maybe not?

“See! The vaccine protects you.”

Now, let’s learn how to lie with statistics.

How can such a clear statistic be manipulated into saying the opposite?

Digging deeper, you will find the highest vaccinated demographics in all parts of America are also:

– richer
– higher education
– fewer smokers
– better general healthcare
– less obesity
– better nutrition
– longer life expectancy
– more physically active

Suddenly, it is less clear that people are in the hospital because they are unvaccinated… or only because they are fat, eat poorly, chain smoke, and happen to be unlikely to get the vaccine.

Actual statistics indicate people who don’t take care of their general health are more likely to die or be hospitalized. They are also less likely to get the vaccine.

The vaccine doesn’t appear to be protecting anyone.

The statistics claiming it does are completely taken out of context.

There are at least three other Ten Cent Army folks who post here regularly…

Only a racist like setnaffa and his followers of the Church of Setnaffarism would lop Koreans and Chinese into a single general category.

Lop? You mean like cutting branches off a pine tree?

setnaffa,

I see that you’ve been paying attention 😀

Setnaffa, the Russians are doing very well in Ukraine. Please don’t believe the propaganda.

Phase 1: Drove a line of military toward Kiev, forcing a good part of the Ukrainian military to concentrate there. The rest of the military went after the real goal of eastern Ukraine or breakaway regions (depending on your politics). The intention was to have Ukraine surrender under threat of an attack on Kiev. The last thing Russia wanted was street fighting in Kiev. The bluff didn’t work. But there was no highway of death. The Russians simply turned around and redeployed their troops for Phase 2. Note: they still have the ability to attack Kiev but have not… that is a clue.

Phase 2: Russia didn’t want to destroy infrastructure in places they would soon be responsible for repairing so they were quite reserved. This artificially slow progress is called “doing poorly” by western propaganda.

Phase 3: Good old soviet style artillary tactics. “The russians are going to run out of ammo by march,” said the guy who didn’t know the soviets made and stored ammo in 24 hour factories since the 1950s.

But this is also slow going because the Ukrainian military, for reason ranging from supply line disruption to surgical strikes on leadership, are only fighting with small unit tactics… one step above guerilla warfare… and note all the cool weapons systems they have been given are only being used one at a time instead if in a group in hopes they won’t be destroyed all at once. Also note that we are starting to see older Ukranian soldiers… indicating they are having recruitment issues. Contrast this with the Russians giving their soldiers R&R.

If you look at a map, you will see how much territory Russia has captured in less than 5 months and Ukraine has zero hope… ZERO… of recovering it.

It really doesn’t look like Russia is doing poorly.

It looks like they publicly declared their goals and they are methodically accomplishing them while inflicting far more losses than they experience.

The Ukranian Territorial Defense went wrong long ago.

Early in the war, lots of able-bodied men signed up for Territorial Defense so they could stay close to home (or defend their western Ukraine home area from an occupation (that is more likely to be Polish than Russian)). This was a good option to keep from going to the front.

But as Ukrainian losses of young men is very large (even by underreported Ukranian numbers), Ukraine has started sending Territorial Defense guys to the front.

The need for Territorial Defense members hasn’t gone away.

And for that reason, the maximum age for recruits has passed from tragedy to farce.

This is yet another clue to look for when evaluating how well a country is doing in a war. It generally signals the end is near.

More weapons, many of which never make it to the front, will not help Ukraine win.

They need more manpower.

That means NATO involvement.

Puppet Zelensky’s days are numbered… assassination or coup. He is now purging his inner circle is a clue.

The outcome is clear. That can be reached after more Ukranian death and destruction or it can be reached now. There are some patriotic Ukranians who recognize this.

Setnaffa, do look into the root causes of the current war… see if Ukraine has been following the Minsk agreement and see if they have been shelling Russian speaking civilians for 8 years.

Russia is doing the right thing and they should have done it in 2014… though arguably, they have been preparing since they realized they should but weren’t quite able to.

The best part of this war is it allowed me to adjust my Special Interest Group Hiarchy Chart.

It was interesting back when I could move imaginary Russian watersports hookers above American presidents that put America first.

And illegal aliens over American citizens for free healthcare made my chart more interesting.

Career violent felons over police was interesting but I had to make two tags because that was only if they were black.

It was exciting when I was able to move trannys above feminists in sports. I bet that was a tough call but they made the right choice to maximize dysfunction.

But I gotta say… the highlight has been non-communist Russians dropping below actual literal swastika-tattooed and white supremist symol uniformed Ukranian real-life nazis.

They are still below career criminal blacks burning small business… but this gives me real hope that America is on the right path to clean up Hitler’s unjustly tarnished image and I will be able to proudly remove my worn Che Guvara shirt to show off my full back tattoo of flaming swastikas surrounding an anime version of Eva Braun with a strap-on standing in front of Auschwitz with a sign reading “durchdringen macht frei”.