Don't want to sound alarmist, but IMO it's notable that at this time of US-China tension, 3 of China's largest/newest roll-on/roll-off civilian ferries appear to be off their normal routes and are in or have moved south toward the Taiwan Strait. All 3 are associated with the PLA.
Pelosi flys from SE Asian to NE Asia through legitimate airspace that just happens to be near Taiwan.
Oh no! That pesky engine trouble again? Didn’t we fix that before we left America? Guess not.
Mayday mayday! Guess we have to land at the closest airfield… which is… Taiwan. Certainly nobody would interfere with an emergency landing of a distresses aircraft, right? Right?
China: Ten thousand curses upon you, round eye devils. Now we have to decide to allow Pelosi to cross the uncrossable red line we said would be an act of war and never be taken seriously again… or do we show our resolve and shoot the plane down for crossing that red line because if you give the Americans a cun, they take a li? We will…
setnaffa
2 years ago
Sending ferries sounds like a delayed reaction to Pride Month. /jk
It’s worth remembering the current crop of American Democrats are craven, bought-and-paid-for political hacks just scrambling to stay in power so they can stay paid.
And China can’t afford a war over Taiwan right now, unless they develop an overland source of oil and Russia agrees to buy all the crap they currently sell to the West.
They don’t have enough boats. They can’t prevent India from sinking their ships. And their economy is pretty delicate. If they shifted their army eastward to tackle Taiwan and her allies, they might lose control in certain other areas hit by the real estate bubble and crooked banking scandals.
Not to mention that Taiwan would probably immolate itself before surrendering. And they did, at one point, have nuclear cruise missiles.
Last edited 2 years ago by setnaffa
ChickenHead
2 years ago
“Sending ferries sounds like a delayed reaction to Pride Month. /jk”
WW3 will be fought in the EOC battlespace.
“And China can’t afford a war over Taiwan right now, unless they develop an overland source of oil”
It is not clear if that is true. China has massive coal reserves and is the world leader in coal liquefaction… changing coal to high quality diesel. Further, ~80% of their electricity is coal or renuable such as hydroelectric. Russia will happily sell them as much natural gas as they want.
It is assumed any war with China will have the unspoken agreement that it can be fought in Korea or Vietnam and maybe even Taiwan but China and USA are off-limits for attack… so this critical infrastructure will keep functioning.
“and Russia agrees to buy all the crap they currently sell to the West.”
Russia, selling gas to China at full price, may be happy to take Chinese manufactured goods as payment. That wouldn’t be a bad thing for Russia.
“They don’t have enough boats. They can’t prevent India from sinking their ships.”
Ship killing technology appears to be way ahead of ship defending technology. China’s shortest-range anti-ship missiles go past Japan, cover most of Vietnam, and touch the northern Phillipines. Their longest range ones go to the Solomon Islands. When some of their cruise missiles are getting close, the solid rocket kicks on and they come in at mach 10.
American carrier groups project a lot of power when there is no war or the targets are bushmen and goat herders. But the quiet part is they aren’t expected to last a day in a real war with China.
“And their economy is pretty delicate. If they shifted their army eastward to tackle Taiwan and her allies, they might lose control in certain other areas hit by the real estate bubble and crooked banking scandals.”
Another way to see it is through the lens of history and consider what Asian communists will do for the State when the Revolution is threatened. Mao pulled that off well. NK has been doing it for 70+ years. People ready to riot over their stolen finances might put their hurt feelings on hold and unify as Chinese against the bellicose western imperialist gangsters.
“Not to mention that Taiwan would probably immolate itself before surrendering.”
A blockade until the Taiwanese begged for civilization would be a better strategy. American ships would not be able to even come close. Land-based air power, shore-to-ship missiles, and submarines might have some succes.
“And they did, at one point, have nuclear cruise missiles.”
Different rules apply when the nukes fly. It seems a Taiwanese surrender would be preferable to a successful attack on the mainland followed by annihilation.
setnaffa
2 years ago
CH, I think you misunderestimate the RoC. 😉
Especially after what Beijing is doing to Shanghai, Hong Kong, and all the other places we don’t hear about; but they do…
And if you think Bidet is going to commit Carriers to Taiwan before the missiles are dealt with, well, he might try; but then we’d have to see Admirals willingly committing suicide, and none of those folks seem like the type…
Let’s look into the crystal ball.
Pelosi flys from SE Asian to NE Asia through legitimate airspace that just happens to be near Taiwan.
Oh no! That pesky engine trouble again? Didn’t we fix that before we left America? Guess not.
Mayday mayday! Guess we have to land at the closest airfield… which is… Taiwan. Certainly nobody would interfere with an emergency landing of a distresses aircraft, right? Right?
China: Ten thousand curses upon you, round eye devils. Now we have to decide to allow Pelosi to cross the uncrossable red line we said would be an act of war and never be taken seriously again… or do we show our resolve and shoot the plane down for crossing that red line because if you give the Americans a cun, they take a li? We will…
Sending ferries sounds like a delayed reaction to Pride Month. /jk
It’s worth remembering the current crop of American Democrats are craven, bought-and-paid-for political hacks just scrambling to stay in power so they can stay paid.
And China can’t afford a war over Taiwan right now, unless they develop an overland source of oil and Russia agrees to buy all the crap they currently sell to the West.
They don’t have enough boats. They can’t prevent India from sinking their ships. And their economy is pretty delicate. If they shifted their army eastward to tackle Taiwan and her allies, they might lose control in certain other areas hit by the real estate bubble and crooked banking scandals.
Not to mention that Taiwan would probably immolate itself before surrendering. And they did, at one point, have nuclear cruise missiles.
“Sending ferries sounds like a delayed reaction to Pride Month. /jk”
WW3 will be fought in the EOC battlespace.
“And China can’t afford a war over Taiwan right now, unless they develop an overland source of oil”
It is not clear if that is true. China has massive coal reserves and is the world leader in coal liquefaction… changing coal to high quality diesel. Further, ~80% of their electricity is coal or renuable such as hydroelectric. Russia will happily sell them as much natural gas as they want.
It is assumed any war with China will have the unspoken agreement that it can be fought in Korea or Vietnam and maybe even Taiwan but China and USA are off-limits for attack… so this critical infrastructure will keep functioning.
“and Russia agrees to buy all the crap they currently sell to the West.”
Russia, selling gas to China at full price, may be happy to take Chinese manufactured goods as payment. That wouldn’t be a bad thing for Russia.
“They don’t have enough boats. They can’t prevent India from sinking their ships.”
Ship killing technology appears to be way ahead of ship defending technology. China’s shortest-range anti-ship missiles go past Japan, cover most of Vietnam, and touch the northern Phillipines. Their longest range ones go to the Solomon Islands. When some of their cruise missiles are getting close, the solid rocket kicks on and they come in at mach 10.
American carrier groups project a lot of power when there is no war or the targets are bushmen and goat herders. But the quiet part is they aren’t expected to last a day in a real war with China.
“And their economy is pretty delicate. If they shifted their army eastward to tackle Taiwan and her allies, they might lose control in certain other areas hit by the real estate bubble and crooked banking scandals.”
Another way to see it is through the lens of history and consider what Asian communists will do for the State when the Revolution is threatened. Mao pulled that off well. NK has been doing it for 70+ years. People ready to riot over their stolen finances might put their hurt feelings on hold and unify as Chinese against the bellicose western imperialist gangsters.
“Not to mention that Taiwan would probably immolate itself before surrendering.”
A blockade until the Taiwanese begged for civilization would be a better strategy. American ships would not be able to even come close. Land-based air power, shore-to-ship missiles, and submarines might have some succes.
“And they did, at one point, have nuclear cruise missiles.”
Different rules apply when the nukes fly. It seems a Taiwanese surrender would be preferable to a successful attack on the mainland followed by annihilation.
CH, I think you misunderestimate the RoC. 😉
Especially after what Beijing is doing to Shanghai, Hong Kong, and all the other places we don’t hear about; but they do…
And if you think Bidet is going to commit Carriers to Taiwan before the missiles are dealt with, well, he might try; but then we’d have to see Admirals willingly committing suicide, and none of those folks seem like the type…
Turns out Pelosi is going…