Russia just had their first big military loss of the war.
The Ukrainian Counteroffensive just attacked an area of Russian-held territory thinly guarded by conscripts and recently militarized police.
They have recaptured a strip of land and can now brag to the world they are retaking their country.
Yeah for Ukraine!
On the flip side, they are surrounded and their supply lines are dependent on bridges. This can’t be lost on the Russians.
Has there ever been a battle where this distribution of forces ever worked out for the attacker?
It really does look like more of a trap than a slinky 17 year old boy in a dress at a ketamine-fueled Antifa riot.
setnaffa
2 years ago
CH, you reminded me of how the CSA (at Chancellorsville and Gettysburg in May and July 1863) caught General Howard’s Union troops eating or otherwise not paying attention and routed them.
While the General himself got his stuff sorted, his troops suffered. And in the long run it did nothing to assist the rebellion.
Ukraine, however, could have put all their eggs in one basket. The Rooskies still have a lot of bombers, some of which are probably capable of flight…
@Chickenhead, for the Russians being supposedly so crafty they keep getting outsmarted by the Ukrainians. This war has been a disaster for the Russians and I don’t see how they can win it without resorting to tactical nukes.
setnaffa
2 years ago
GI and CH, I’m no prophet from God, so I am not going to predict which corrupt Eastern European country will “win” the war.
I rather think they’re both losing rather handily.
However, back on the North American Front, tbe FDA is quadrupling down on the failed vaccines, so those who need to virtue-signal their Safe and Effective status should get out and get “recharged.”
That COVID-19-AIDS and those fibrous blood clots aren’t gonna kill you… it’s just that other person…
Probably not even someone you know.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
I have been hearing the Russians are losing and will be out of ammo and soldiers… and this has been said at least since April.
Unlike American wars that have no definition of victory, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has a defined purpose.
And there is no indication that Russia is not methodically achieving their goals.
If Russia was losing, they would be leveling Kiev and other cities until Ukraine was no longer a functioning country.
Instead, they are de-nazifying and demilitarizing Ukraine. They are also taking Russian-speaking areas plus a buffer zone.
Anybody who expects this to happen in a few days is not living in reality. And now that Russia is fighting NATO, it will take even longer… at least until NATO runs out of their old soviet military equipment, Zelensky gets his head on a pole by Ukrainian patriots who see the same outcome the long hard way or immediately on better terms, or Europeans start asking their government why it is so cold and dark in their home.
But I will ask the question I always ask.
By what metric has this been a disaster for the Russians?
Then I will ask why they need nukes to “win”?
A calculator shows eventually Ukraine will run out of men even with unlimited equipment. And the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties favors Russia… a lot.
In the end, the people telling me Russia is going to lose “next month” are the same ones telling me snow is a thing of the past, inflation is good, and I will learn to like eating bugs.
No. This war will end and Russia will have accomplished their goals.
People who cannot accept reality will still say “but but but Russia lost. Now let me get my 6th booster.”
setnaffa
2 years ago
Russia “won” WW2 in spite of massive losses via German “blitzkreig” attacks. Ukraine can only “win” by taking Moscow before the Russian Winter kicks in.
Korean Man
2 years ago
I just had my 6th and 7th booster shots. I feel great!
Russia is not losing, it’s winning big. They’ve accumulated $150 billion in oil money since Feb, with their national coffers overflowing with US dollars. They sold less oil than last year, but since the prices have shot up, they are profiting far more. Thanks to China, and two of the Quad members in India and Japan. Russia should also thank Europe which has paid more for less oil, by indirectly buying Russian oil from China (which by the way, with India, has profited the most out of all the countries).
Europe is in shatters, and they deserve it. They thought they were smart. They thought that they can impose sanctions on a country that depended on energy to power their industries. Dumb f*cking idiots. Shooting themselves on their foot, what a laughable joke. This is another sign that the US-led world order is now crumbling. The world will go into chaos, due to America’s MAGA policies. More and more countries will finally realize standing on the side of the US isn’t going to save them, or buy their goods and services. That will be the inflection point when there will be no more need to buy the US dollar.
@Chickenhead, the Russians original goal was to swiftly capture Ukraine and create regime change. That failed with enormous troop casualties and loss of equipment. They then shifted their goals to expanding their hold on the east and creating a land bridge to Crimea. Their hold on the east took a major hit this weekend and if they lose Kherson they take a major hit to their land bridge. The war is a long ways from being over, but I don’t see how you can call this winning.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
Good grief.
Korea Man figured it out!
He exactly explained the situation.
Then he got to the end and…
“The world will go into chaos, due to America’s MAGA policies.”
What?
Anybody else notice Trump is not the president?
The Biden juanta’s policies are the exact opposite of MAGA.
In fact, it appears the globalist Deep State is doing its best to end MAGA as political movement by targeting its largest supporters.
So it appears Korea Man recognizes the problem but not the solution.
Though in fairness, that is better than most people… who recognize neither.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
I see the problem.
“Chickenhead, the Russians original goal was to swiftly capture Ukraine and create regime change.”
This is what western propaganda is pushing. It is not what Russia has ever claimed to be doing nor have any of their actions indicated this is the goal.
Certainly, the last few years has allowed everyone to recognize the pattern:
– make something up and attach it to your enemy
– noisily attack what you made up
– declare victory
So why would anyone believe Russia was bent on capturing Ukraine and creating regime change?
The usual evidence is the convoy from Belarus that headed toward Kiev.
Keep in mind, attacking and occupying Kiev would be difficult and expensive. And it wouldn’t accomplish any Russian goals that have clear benefits.
So it is OK to be skeptical that the convoy was not there to take Kiev.
Further, in Eastern Ukraine, Russia is working under a serious restriction. They cannot damage infrastructure or injure civilians because they are going to have to deal with it when this becomes part of Russia.
And the world is quick to point out Russian attacks on schools but slow to point out the Ukranian artillery positions in the schools.
So Russia can’t use normal tactics of shelling everything into rubble and advancing across the dust to repeat the cycle.
The media is silent when Ukraine shells Russian-speaking civilians, and have been doing so since 2014.
So Russia isn’t looking to “capture” Ukraine and occupy ares full of hostile Ukranians.
And if they are hoping for regime change via direct military action, there has been no indication of that.
Regime change is one hypersonic missile away.
If Russia starts “losing”, this won’t last. Russia will start hitting infrastructure target in Ukraine and make it all dysfunctional… bridges, railroads, power stations, water, sewage, telecom… and if there is no result, food distribution is next.
So back to the convoy to Kiev.
The question seems to be if it was a failed assault on Kiev or a diversion to draw much of the Ukraine military and attention away from the east as well as a tactic to force a Ukrainian surrender before a war even started.
The answer is not clear. Let’s think it though.
It certainly worked as a diversion. It did not force Ukraine to back down. The thought of Russia taking and occupying Kiev with the force they sent is not realistic.
All the media and retired generals talk of this convoy in the vaguest of terms littered with weaselwords.
It was a disaster composed of broken equipment and fuel shortages and low morale…
…and then Ukraine came in and killed them all… maybe… or not… suddenly there is no evidence but we are sure it happened.
When Ukraine has any sort of victory, the War Pr0n is all over the place… yet we can’t even get a satallite photo of the wreckage of Russia’s defeated convoy.
So I am skeptical “That failed with enormous troop casualties and loss of equipment.”
“They then shifted their goals to expanding their hold on the east and creating a land bridge to Crimea.”
It doesn’t seem they shifted any goals. The goal has always been to take the Russian-speaking breakaway areas from Ukraine. This has never been a secret. Russia has done nothing counter to this goal. The convoy to Kiev fits perfectly for everyone who doesn’t think Russia planned to take and occupying Kiev.
“Their hold on the east took a major hit this weekend and if they lose Kherson they take a major hit to their land bridge.”
What exactly happened is not yet clear. Rumors include:
A) Russian incompetence allowed a poorly guarded area to be retaken in a rout, which scored a major propaganda victory. And the next part of Ukraine’s plan is…
B) Russia gave Ukraine a chance to gather lots of soldiers and equipment in one place and drew them in by retreating. Then they used air power to destroy much of their force. Meanwhile, they are preparing to re-retake the area.
Eventually, anyone paying attention will know. Everyone else will read a locked Wikipedia page.
“The war is a long ways from being over”
Yes… especially when the west does everything possible to sabotage resolution and delay surrender.
“but I don’t see how you can call this winning.”
It is not “won”… yet. Russia is currently winning by every metric. Those who see an army advancing across territory and then claim they are losing after a relatively minor setback is not giving an honest evaluation. Not all battles are won in most wars. Further, look where this happened. It isn’t even an important location.
Winning is defined by the various goals Russia has stated and implied.
– denazification: is Azov Batallion still a thing? The last we heard of them, they were “evacuated” after a 3 month siege of Azov Steel. By evacuated, it means they gave up and are now in prison. Azov has been a feature of Russian and Ukrainian politics for a while.
Clear win for Russia. Possible win for Ukraine, if you subscribe to the idea that there needs to be fewer Nazis in your government.
– demilitarize Ukraine: some wars have been successfully won, not by taking and holding territory, but by destroying the enemy in battles not designed to make them retreat but designed to kill everyone and break their weapons. This was a good strategy for Russia. It will drag out, as Ukraine has a good resupply of weapons. It is unclear if they have a good resupply of trained men… or at least enough to outlast Russian will.
– recapture Russian-speaking areas (that also make a land bridge to Crimea): A map shows this is happening. As long as Ukraine has men, NATO will supply the weapons. This will be a long process. It appears Russian casualties are not unreasonable and territorial gains are steady.
– keep Ukraine out of NATO: so far. It will be interesting to see what happens to NATO. (What happens to Artical 5 when Turkey and Greece attack each other?)
We can go on… but while I wrote this, the War in Ukraine took a new and expected twist.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
And the punishment for Ukraine taking back their own territory / attacking independent nations asking for Russian protection (depending on your politics) is…
Remember the restraint Russia has shown against western Ukraine?
Well… no longer.
Developing.
But 100% air raid sirens and infrastructure taking a beating. Electricity out and internet off over much of Ukraine.
Russia has just brought the war to all Ukranians. They now have to decide if keeping the breakaway regions for a bit longer is worth the suffering that will come with it.
Of course they will want to continue the fight… even if it means living in the cold and dark without enough food to eat. Pride of this type is very common.
North Koreans are living it.
The lesson here is that EU members will manipulate their citizens into doing the same this winter.
And the Chinese will fall back on war and pride the moment there is an economic crash and people get angry.
And Americans may find themselves in the same position… they already are… “inflation and high gas prices are Putin’s fault (so endure, citizen)”… but it may get worse.
Let’s see what the next few days in Ukraine brings.
setnaffa
2 years ago
It the asteroid is solid, this may work. If it shatters, it might make things much, much worse.
@Chickenhead, the Russians did not need to occupy Kiev they wanted to kill/capture government leaders and raise the Russian flag over central Kiev. The leadership fleeing Kiev just like the Afghan leadership would have worked almost as well. This would have been hugely demoralizing to Ukrainian units in the east and south. Would they have possibly cut deals and surrendered like the Afghans? Instead the government stayed in Kiev and urged their population to fight. I don’t think Putin expected this.
The battle for Kiev was lost when they could not capture the Antonov Airport where their elite airborne regiment got crushed by the Ukrainian counter attack. As far as the convoy it did not get destroyed because the Ukrainians did not have the airpower to do so. The convoy largely returned to Belarus to have the equipment redeployed in the east.
At this point all Putin has accomplished is gain a tentative land bridge to Crimea that may not last for long, had tens of thousands of Soldiers killed, countless more equipment losses, lost any mystique the Russian military may have had of their fighting prowess, united Ukraine with hatred for Russians for likely decades, and expanded and energized NATO. I definitely do not call this winning; with that said he hasn’t lost yet either, but it isn’t look good.
setnaffa
2 years ago
Fortunately, the Democrats running things will ignore them, eh wot? No need to fear for Pfizer or Moderna stockholders.
“We declare that there is an international medical crisis due to the diseases and death co-related to the administration of products known as the COVID-19 vaccines,” stated Dr. Alexandra Henrion-Caude of the French Institute of Health and Medical Research.”
The declaration comes after research from specialists at Harvard University and Johns Hopkins University found vaccines could be up to 98 times as dangerous for children compared to COVID-19 itself.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
The New England Journal of Medicine just published a big study on children and vaccines.
Short Version:
1. Kids with no vaccine who caught covid had low chances of reinfection for at least a year and a half.
2. Kids with a vaccine who caught covid had negative protection within 6 months.
3. Natural immunity kept kids out of the hospital better than the vaccine.
Conclusion: Boosters are necessary!
Note: The study made it very clear that natural immunity is far, far better than the vaccine. The conclusion that boosters are the solution seems to be an inside joke. This keeps the funding flowing by supporting the narrative but exposes the truth to anyone looking for it.
I, myself, encourage vaccination and multiple boosting of children… especially YOUR children, if you are pro vaccine.
liz
2 years ago
New England Journal of Medicine.
Stop with the garbage conspiracy rags. That medical publication has been lying for Trump for…over 200 years!
ChickenHead
2 years ago
“Chickenhead, the Russians did not need to occupy Kiev they wanted to kill/capture government leaders and raise the Russian flag over central Kiev.”
So the Russian strategy was to enter Kiev, engage in a bit of street fighting on the way to find the government leaders who were hanging out in their offices, raise the Russian flag, declare victory, and go home?
Does not compute.
Why go through the hassle?
Everybody knows where these guys live and work… and probably when and where they meet.
Before there was even any hint of military action, this goal could have been accomplished with some of those hypersonic missiles we see slip into their targets while the S-300s go huh?
I am afraid I am sticking with the theory that the movement on Kiev was:
– a bluff in hopes Ukranian leadership would give up without war and eastern Ukraine would be negotiated away
– a diversion to get military attention away from the real goal of eastern Ukraine making advancement into territory quicker
Alternative theories don’t really make much sense.
“Instead the government stayed in Kiev and urged their population to fight.”
It seems they wanted to negotiate at first but that was sabotaged by the west. Besides, the Ukranians are not to be trusted in negotiations. They didn’t follow the Minsk Agreement and later bragged it was only a delaying taxtic so they could build their military.
Nobody asks why the leadership of Ukraine puts on a pretty public show yet Russian satallites, intel, missiles, assassins, etc., aren’t taking notice.
There is probably a hint in there that the situation is more complex than it seems.
“I don’t think Putin expected this.”
A better statement seems to be he really hoped this wouldn’t happen… but obviously he expected it could, as the response was in place for it.
“At this point all Putin has accomplished is gain a tentative land bridge to Crimea that may not last for long”
That and a large amount of land occupied by Russian speakers. The recent loss was in the lest important area… hence the lack of resources devoted to hold it.
It is unclear how long all this territory will be held by Russian. The locals are pro-Russian, have their own military, and the longer they are away from Ukraine, the harder it will be for Ukraine to take back. It isn’t helping that the Russians have been pretty gentle on the population while Ukraine has intentionally shelled civilians and purged traitors (depending on how you balance propaganda and questionable evidence from all sides). In the retaken area, doxxing of pro Russians (no doubt real and nonexistent) has taken off. “Gave food to the enemy”, “said they were happy to have the Russians”, “smiled at Russians”… the usual stuff.
“had tens of thousands of Soldiers killed”
That is a hard number to know. Let’s look at some claims:
Russia (March): 1,351
CIA (july) : 15,000
NATO (March) : 15,000
Pentagon (Aug): 70-80,000
Ukraine (Sep) : 50,150
Russia doesn’t say much and that number is way out of date.
CIA and NATO won’t low-ball it. Ukraine lies. Pentagon lies big.
How do we know these are lies?
What is the injury to death ratio in war? Traditionally, 3:1. The America military has their act together so the ratio is somewhere between 10:1 and 17:1.
Russia brought fewer than 200,000 troops to the party.
A claim of 80,000 dead soldiera would require going and shooting their wives to make the numbers add up.
Outrageous claims need exceptional explanations.
“countless more equipment losses”
Equipment loss numbers are also unclear. It doesn’t build confidence when Ukraine brags about destroying Russian equient and shows the same burn tank from a different angle.
There is evidence Russia lost equipment. How that relates to their supply is unknown.
“lost any mystique the Russian military may have had of their fighting prowess”
The surprise is how reserved they have been against Ukranian non-combatants (including soldiers not at the front), civilian leadership, and infrastructure.
Russia is fighting NATO in all but manpower and still taking territory. This really doesn’t look like total incompetence… though there has been plenty of incompetence.
…reminds me of the War College paper that claimed America’s military was dysfunctional and incompetent but, fortunately, all of the enemies are even more dysfunctional and incompetent.
“united Ukraine with hatred for Russians for likely decades”
Ukraine already hated Russians… and was truly oppressive to Russian speakers… especially since 2014. This is not even a concern.
“and expanded and energized NATO.”
Ha! The larger NATO gets, the more unwieldy it becomes. Further, the goals of NATO, the EU, and cold Europeans are going to meet cross ways soon. That is going to be interesting. The governments training and equipping to fight their own citizens due to expected civil unrest is quite the backhanded win for Russia
And the grinding down of European industry due to an energy shortage is also a win.
NATO can keep this going and declare victory at every chance… but if victory is defined by elevating your citizens standard of living against enemies looking to destroy it… well… Russia is winning without question.
This will not be easy for Russia but they will prevail.
Next time, we can discuss Khan’s 44 step escalation ladder and try to guess where NATO and Russia will stop. Lots of times nobody wants to escalate past a certain point but they don’t want to deescalate either… just keep things at the optimal crisis level for their purposes.
Anyway, I have given my opinion and the reasons for my opinion.
Let’s see what happens.
And let’s see if you remember where you were on September 24, 2022.
ChickenHead
2 years ago
So the question was:
Did Russia lose the battle or was it a setup for an elegant trap?
And the answer is: hard loss
Better luck next time, Ivan.
So what does this mean?
Probably nothing in the long run… except a lot more pain for Ukraine.
When America has invaded the last few countries, what the first thing they did? They hit critical infrastructure to ensure the country couldn’t function well.
Why has nobody asked why the Russians did not do this ti Ukraine? They are quite capable, and Ukrain is not capable of responding.
The reason is this invasion is more of a police action than a war.
But as the situation goes from a Ukranian military supported by NATO to a NATO military staffed by Ukranians, Russia will certainly respond.
They hit power plants for the first time. Now they have hit a dam below the waterline.
The elecreic grid can be rerouted somewhat. Drinking water is harder.
If Ukrain doesn’t cooperate and lose properly, it will be a cold and dark winter for Ukranians with no water, light, or heat.
Russia’s rules of engagement have been very restrictive. The hardliners are not happy about that.
Russia just had their first big military loss of the war.
The Ukrainian Counteroffensive just attacked an area of Russian-held territory thinly guarded by conscripts and recently militarized police.
They have recaptured a strip of land and can now brag to the world they are retaking their country.
Yeah for Ukraine!
On the flip side, they are surrounded and their supply lines are dependent on bridges. This can’t be lost on the Russians.
Has there ever been a battle where this distribution of forces ever worked out for the attacker?
It really does look like more of a trap than a slinky 17 year old boy in a dress at a ketamine-fueled Antifa riot.
CH, you reminded me of how the CSA (at Chancellorsville and Gettysburg in May and July 1863) caught General Howard’s Union troops eating or otherwise not paying attention and routed them.
While the General himself got his stuff sorted, his troops suffered. And in the long run it did nothing to assist the rebellion.
Ukraine, however, could have put all their eggs in one basket. The Rooskies still have a lot of bombers, some of which are probably capable of flight…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-160#Operators
Thought this was funny…
Satnaffa, I really don’t know.
I know Russians are crafty.
And I know they are crafter than ukranians.
Sooooo…
I believe the Russian fantasy will prevail.
In a couple weeks, I am going to explain what is going to happen.
You fags have no idea.
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@Chickenhead, for the Russians being supposedly so crafty they keep getting outsmarted by the Ukrainians. This war has been a disaster for the Russians and I don’t see how they can win it without resorting to tactical nukes.
GI and CH, I’m no prophet from God, so I am not going to predict which corrupt Eastern European country will “win” the war.
I rather think they’re both losing rather handily.
However, back on the North American Front, tbe FDA is quadrupling down on the failed vaccines, so those who need to virtue-signal their Safe and Effective status should get out and get “recharged.”
That COVID-19-AIDS and those fibrous blood clots aren’t gonna kill you… it’s just that other person…
Probably not even someone you know.
I have been hearing the Russians are losing and will be out of ammo and soldiers… and this has been said at least since April.
Unlike American wars that have no definition of victory, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has a defined purpose.
And there is no indication that Russia is not methodically achieving their goals.
If Russia was losing, they would be leveling Kiev and other cities until Ukraine was no longer a functioning country.
Instead, they are de-nazifying and demilitarizing Ukraine. They are also taking Russian-speaking areas plus a buffer zone.
Anybody who expects this to happen in a few days is not living in reality. And now that Russia is fighting NATO, it will take even longer… at least until NATO runs out of their old soviet military equipment, Zelensky gets his head on a pole by Ukrainian patriots who see the same outcome the long hard way or immediately on better terms, or Europeans start asking their government why it is so cold and dark in their home.
But I will ask the question I always ask.
By what metric has this been a disaster for the Russians?
Then I will ask why they need nukes to “win”?
A calculator shows eventually Ukraine will run out of men even with unlimited equipment. And the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties favors Russia… a lot.
In the end, the people telling me Russia is going to lose “next month” are the same ones telling me snow is a thing of the past, inflation is good, and I will learn to like eating bugs.
No. This war will end and Russia will have accomplished their goals.
People who cannot accept reality will still say “but but but Russia lost. Now let me get my 6th booster.”
Russia “won” WW2 in spite of massive losses via German “blitzkreig” attacks. Ukraine can only “win” by taking Moscow before the Russian Winter kicks in.
I just had my 6th and 7th booster shots. I feel great!
Russia is not losing, it’s winning big. They’ve accumulated $150 billion in oil money since Feb, with their national coffers overflowing with US dollars. They sold less oil than last year, but since the prices have shot up, they are profiting far more. Thanks to China, and two of the Quad members in India and Japan. Russia should also thank Europe which has paid more for less oil, by indirectly buying Russian oil from China (which by the way, with India, has profited the most out of all the countries).
Europe is in shatters, and they deserve it. They thought they were smart. They thought that they can impose sanctions on a country that depended on energy to power their industries. Dumb f*cking idiots. Shooting themselves on their foot, what a laughable joke. This is another sign that the US-led world order is now crumbling. The world will go into chaos, due to America’s MAGA policies. More and more countries will finally realize standing on the side of the US isn’t going to save them, or buy their goods and services. That will be the inflection point when there will be no more need to buy the US dollar.
@Chickenhead, the Russians original goal was to swiftly capture Ukraine and create regime change. That failed with enormous troop casualties and loss of equipment. They then shifted their goals to expanding their hold on the east and creating a land bridge to Crimea. Their hold on the east took a major hit this weekend and if they lose Kherson they take a major hit to their land bridge. The war is a long ways from being over, but I don’t see how you can call this winning.
Good grief.
Korea Man figured it out!
He exactly explained the situation.
Then he got to the end and…
“The world will go into chaos, due to America’s MAGA policies.”
What?
Anybody else notice Trump is not the president?
The Biden juanta’s policies are the exact opposite of MAGA.
In fact, it appears the globalist Deep State is doing its best to end MAGA as political movement by targeting its largest supporters.
So it appears Korea Man recognizes the problem but not the solution.
Though in fairness, that is better than most people… who recognize neither.
I see the problem.
“Chickenhead, the Russians original goal was to swiftly capture Ukraine and create regime change.”
This is what western propaganda is pushing. It is not what Russia has ever claimed to be doing nor have any of their actions indicated this is the goal.
Certainly, the last few years has allowed everyone to recognize the pattern:
– make something up and attach it to your enemy
– noisily attack what you made up
– declare victory
So why would anyone believe Russia was bent on capturing Ukraine and creating regime change?
The usual evidence is the convoy from Belarus that headed toward Kiev.
Keep in mind, attacking and occupying Kiev would be difficult and expensive. And it wouldn’t accomplish any Russian goals that have clear benefits.
So it is OK to be skeptical that the convoy was not there to take Kiev.
Further, in Eastern Ukraine, Russia is working under a serious restriction. They cannot damage infrastructure or injure civilians because they are going to have to deal with it when this becomes part of Russia.
And the world is quick to point out Russian attacks on schools but slow to point out the Ukranian artillery positions in the schools.
So Russia can’t use normal tactics of shelling everything into rubble and advancing across the dust to repeat the cycle.
The media is silent when Ukraine shells Russian-speaking civilians, and have been doing so since 2014.
So Russia isn’t looking to “capture” Ukraine and occupy ares full of hostile Ukranians.
And if they are hoping for regime change via direct military action, there has been no indication of that.
Regime change is one hypersonic missile away.
If Russia starts “losing”, this won’t last. Russia will start hitting infrastructure target in Ukraine and make it all dysfunctional… bridges, railroads, power stations, water, sewage, telecom… and if there is no result, food distribution is next.
So back to the convoy to Kiev.
The question seems to be if it was a failed assault on Kiev or a diversion to draw much of the Ukraine military and attention away from the east as well as a tactic to force a Ukrainian surrender before a war even started.
The answer is not clear. Let’s think it though.
It certainly worked as a diversion. It did not force Ukraine to back down. The thought of Russia taking and occupying Kiev with the force they sent is not realistic.
All the media and retired generals talk of this convoy in the vaguest of terms littered with weaselwords.
It was a disaster composed of broken equipment and fuel shortages and low morale…
…and then Ukraine came in and killed them all… maybe… or not… suddenly there is no evidence but we are sure it happened.
When Ukraine has any sort of victory, the War Pr0n is all over the place… yet we can’t even get a satallite photo of the wreckage of Russia’s defeated convoy.
So I am skeptical “That failed with enormous troop casualties and loss of equipment.”
“They then shifted their goals to expanding their hold on the east and creating a land bridge to Crimea.”
It doesn’t seem they shifted any goals. The goal has always been to take the Russian-speaking breakaway areas from Ukraine. This has never been a secret. Russia has done nothing counter to this goal. The convoy to Kiev fits perfectly for everyone who doesn’t think Russia planned to take and occupying Kiev.
“Their hold on the east took a major hit this weekend and if they lose Kherson they take a major hit to their land bridge.”
What exactly happened is not yet clear. Rumors include:
A) Russian incompetence allowed a poorly guarded area to be retaken in a rout, which scored a major propaganda victory. And the next part of Ukraine’s plan is…
B) Russia gave Ukraine a chance to gather lots of soldiers and equipment in one place and drew them in by retreating. Then they used air power to destroy much of their force. Meanwhile, they are preparing to re-retake the area.
Eventually, anyone paying attention will know. Everyone else will read a locked Wikipedia page.
“The war is a long ways from being over”
Yes… especially when the west does everything possible to sabotage resolution and delay surrender.
“but I don’t see how you can call this winning.”
It is not “won”… yet. Russia is currently winning by every metric. Those who see an army advancing across territory and then claim they are losing after a relatively minor setback is not giving an honest evaluation. Not all battles are won in most wars. Further, look where this happened. It isn’t even an important location.
Winning is defined by the various goals Russia has stated and implied.
– denazification: is Azov Batallion still a thing? The last we heard of them, they were “evacuated” after a 3 month siege of Azov Steel. By evacuated, it means they gave up and are now in prison. Azov has been a feature of Russian and Ukrainian politics for a while.
Clear win for Russia. Possible win for Ukraine, if you subscribe to the idea that there needs to be fewer Nazis in your government.
– demilitarize Ukraine: some wars have been successfully won, not by taking and holding territory, but by destroying the enemy in battles not designed to make them retreat but designed to kill everyone and break their weapons. This was a good strategy for Russia. It will drag out, as Ukraine has a good resupply of weapons. It is unclear if they have a good resupply of trained men… or at least enough to outlast Russian will.
– recapture Russian-speaking areas (that also make a land bridge to Crimea): A map shows this is happening. As long as Ukraine has men, NATO will supply the weapons. This will be a long process. It appears Russian casualties are not unreasonable and territorial gains are steady.
– keep Ukraine out of NATO: so far. It will be interesting to see what happens to NATO. (What happens to Artical 5 when Turkey and Greece attack each other?)
We can go on… but while I wrote this, the War in Ukraine took a new and expected twist.
And the punishment for Ukraine taking back their own territory / attacking independent nations asking for Russian protection (depending on your politics) is…
Remember the restraint Russia has shown against western Ukraine?
Well… no longer.
Developing.
But 100% air raid sirens and infrastructure taking a beating. Electricity out and internet off over much of Ukraine.
Russia has just brought the war to all Ukranians. They now have to decide if keeping the breakaway regions for a bit longer is worth the suffering that will come with it.
Of course they will want to continue the fight… even if it means living in the cold and dark without enough food to eat. Pride of this type is very common.
North Koreans are living it.
The lesson here is that EU members will manipulate their citizens into doing the same this winter.
And the Chinese will fall back on war and pride the moment there is an economic crash and people get angry.
And Americans may find themselves in the same position… they already are… “inflation and high gas prices are Putin’s fault (so endure, citizen)”… but it may get worse.
Let’s see what the next few days in Ukraine brings.
It the asteroid is solid, this may work. If it shatters, it might make things much, much worse.
https://www.fox4news.com/news/nasa-dart-spacecraft-set-to-intentionally-crash-asteroid
@Chickenhead, the Russians did not need to occupy Kiev they wanted to kill/capture government leaders and raise the Russian flag over central Kiev. The leadership fleeing Kiev just like the Afghan leadership would have worked almost as well. This would have been hugely demoralizing to Ukrainian units in the east and south. Would they have possibly cut deals and surrendered like the Afghans? Instead the government stayed in Kiev and urged their population to fight. I don’t think Putin expected this.
The battle for Kiev was lost when they could not capture the Antonov Airport where their elite airborne regiment got crushed by the Ukrainian counter attack. As far as the convoy it did not get destroyed because the Ukrainians did not have the airpower to do so. The convoy largely returned to Belarus to have the equipment redeployed in the east.
At this point all Putin has accomplished is gain a tentative land bridge to Crimea that may not last for long, had tens of thousands of Soldiers killed, countless more equipment losses, lost any mystique the Russian military may have had of their fighting prowess, united Ukraine with hatred for Russians for likely decades, and expanded and energized NATO. I definitely do not call this winning; with that said he hasn’t lost yet either, but it isn’t look good.
Fortunately, the Democrats running things will ignore them, eh wot? No need to fear for Pfizer or Moderna stockholders.
https://www.oann.com/400-doctors-declare-medical-crisis-over-covid-vaccines-recommend-an-immediate-stop-to-all-programs/
The New England Journal of Medicine just published a big study on children and vaccines.
Short Version:
1. Kids with no vaccine who caught covid had low chances of reinfection for at least a year and a half.
2. Kids with a vaccine who caught covid had negative protection within 6 months.
3. Natural immunity kept kids out of the hospital better than the vaccine.
Conclusion: Boosters are necessary!
Note: The study made it very clear that natural immunity is far, far better than the vaccine. The conclusion that boosters are the solution seems to be an inside joke. This keeps the funding flowing by supporting the narrative but exposes the truth to anyone looking for it.
I, myself, encourage vaccination and multiple boosting of children… especially YOUR children, if you are pro vaccine.
New England Journal of Medicine.
Stop with the garbage conspiracy rags. That medical publication has been lying for Trump for…over 200 years!
“Chickenhead, the Russians did not need to occupy Kiev they wanted to kill/capture government leaders and raise the Russian flag over central Kiev.”
So the Russian strategy was to enter Kiev, engage in a bit of street fighting on the way to find the government leaders who were hanging out in their offices, raise the Russian flag, declare victory, and go home?
Does not compute.
Why go through the hassle?
Everybody knows where these guys live and work… and probably when and where they meet.
Before there was even any hint of military action, this goal could have been accomplished with some of those hypersonic missiles we see slip into their targets while the S-300s go huh?
I am afraid I am sticking with the theory that the movement on Kiev was:
– a bluff in hopes Ukranian leadership would give up without war and eastern Ukraine would be negotiated away
– a diversion to get military attention away from the real goal of eastern Ukraine making advancement into territory quicker
Alternative theories don’t really make much sense.
“Instead the government stayed in Kiev and urged their population to fight.”
It seems they wanted to negotiate at first but that was sabotaged by the west. Besides, the Ukranians are not to be trusted in negotiations. They didn’t follow the Minsk Agreement and later bragged it was only a delaying taxtic so they could build their military.
Nobody asks why the leadership of Ukraine puts on a pretty public show yet Russian satallites, intel, missiles, assassins, etc., aren’t taking notice.
There is probably a hint in there that the situation is more complex than it seems.
“I don’t think Putin expected this.”
A better statement seems to be he really hoped this wouldn’t happen… but obviously he expected it could, as the response was in place for it.
“At this point all Putin has accomplished is gain a tentative land bridge to Crimea that may not last for long”
That and a large amount of land occupied by Russian speakers. The recent loss was in the lest important area… hence the lack of resources devoted to hold it.
It is unclear how long all this territory will be held by Russian. The locals are pro-Russian, have their own military, and the longer they are away from Ukraine, the harder it will be for Ukraine to take back. It isn’t helping that the Russians have been pretty gentle on the population while Ukraine has intentionally shelled civilians and purged traitors (depending on how you balance propaganda and questionable evidence from all sides). In the retaken area, doxxing of pro Russians (no doubt real and nonexistent) has taken off. “Gave food to the enemy”, “said they were happy to have the Russians”, “smiled at Russians”… the usual stuff.
“had tens of thousands of Soldiers killed”
That is a hard number to know. Let’s look at some claims:
Russia (March): 1,351
CIA (july) : 15,000
NATO (March) : 15,000
Pentagon (Aug): 70-80,000
Ukraine (Sep) : 50,150
Russia doesn’t say much and that number is way out of date.
CIA and NATO won’t low-ball it. Ukraine lies. Pentagon lies big.
How do we know these are lies?
What is the injury to death ratio in war? Traditionally, 3:1. The America military has their act together so the ratio is somewhere between 10:1 and 17:1.
Russia brought fewer than 200,000 troops to the party.
A claim of 80,000 dead soldiera would require going and shooting their wives to make the numbers add up.
Outrageous claims need exceptional explanations.
“countless more equipment losses”
Equipment loss numbers are also unclear. It doesn’t build confidence when Ukraine brags about destroying Russian equient and shows the same burn tank from a different angle.
There is evidence Russia lost equipment. How that relates to their supply is unknown.
“lost any mystique the Russian military may have had of their fighting prowess”
The surprise is how reserved they have been against Ukranian non-combatants (including soldiers not at the front), civilian leadership, and infrastructure.
Russia is fighting NATO in all but manpower and still taking territory. This really doesn’t look like total incompetence… though there has been plenty of incompetence.
…reminds me of the War College paper that claimed America’s military was dysfunctional and incompetent but, fortunately, all of the enemies are even more dysfunctional and incompetent.
“united Ukraine with hatred for Russians for likely decades”
Ukraine already hated Russians… and was truly oppressive to Russian speakers… especially since 2014. This is not even a concern.
“and expanded and energized NATO.”
Ha! The larger NATO gets, the more unwieldy it becomes. Further, the goals of NATO, the EU, and cold Europeans are going to meet cross ways soon. That is going to be interesting. The governments training and equipping to fight their own citizens due to expected civil unrest is quite the backhanded win for Russia
And the grinding down of European industry due to an energy shortage is also a win.
NATO can keep this going and declare victory at every chance… but if victory is defined by elevating your citizens standard of living against enemies looking to destroy it… well… Russia is winning without question.
This will not be easy for Russia but they will prevail.
Next time, we can discuss Khan’s 44 step escalation ladder and try to guess where NATO and Russia will stop. Lots of times nobody wants to escalate past a certain point but they don’t want to deescalate either… just keep things at the optimal crisis level for their purposes.
Anyway, I have given my opinion and the reasons for my opinion.
Let’s see what happens.
And let’s see if you remember where you were on September 24, 2022.
So the question was:
Did Russia lose the battle or was it a setup for an elegant trap?
And the answer is: hard loss
Better luck next time, Ivan.
So what does this mean?
Probably nothing in the long run… except a lot more pain for Ukraine.
When America has invaded the last few countries, what the first thing they did? They hit critical infrastructure to ensure the country couldn’t function well.
Why has nobody asked why the Russians did not do this ti Ukraine? They are quite capable, and Ukrain is not capable of responding.
The reason is this invasion is more of a police action than a war.
But as the situation goes from a Ukranian military supported by NATO to a NATO military staffed by Ukranians, Russia will certainly respond.
They hit power plants for the first time. Now they have hit a dam below the waterline.
The elecreic grid can be rerouted somewhat. Drinking water is harder.
If Ukrain doesn’t cooperate and lose properly, it will be a cold and dark winter for Ukranians with no water, light, or heat.
Russia’s rules of engagement have been very restrictive. The hardliners are not happy about that.
Ukraine is going to find out.