ROK Drop Open Thread – June 24, 2023

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ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

I just saw something interesting.

A company’s management wanted something to be true so badly, they simply made all their decisions based around that something being true… which with even a little thought, could not possibly be true.

You can guess how that worked out.

I am amazed how much people lie to themselves. It started with Trump but became unbelievable under covid.

As the usual people-without-agency moved their focus from being covid scolds to standing with Ukraine, it has become quit amazing at the mental gymnastics people go through to believe the lie. If confronted with indisputable evidence they are wrong, they withdraw and refuse to discuss it. Contrast this behavior with people who are right who won’t shut up. This is even true for people who think they are right.

So the Spring Offensive is failing in spectacular fashion. Ukraine brags it has captured some strategically uninteresting hamlets. Gains from previous lines are measured in hundreds of meters in only a few places. They are attacking fortified Russian positions across kilometers of flat ground. They have no real combined arms tactics.

Did anybody expect anything else?

Based on some of the things happening, it almost appears NATO and Ukraine believed their own lies to the point the acted as if they were true.

Of course NATO doesn’t want Ukraine to win. They are happy with Russia taking the Russian-speaking parts, Poland occupying their traditional western lands, and BlackRock managing what is left with the thin illusion it is a country… so they send dumbed-down hardware a little bit at a time (no combined arms) with promises of more, later.

America isn’t going to let the embarrassment of the Leopard 2s to happen to Abrams.

To keep the aid flowing, Ukraine has to show progress. But how?

Most likely, they will attack the Russian ammo storage in Transnistria. Russia will blow it up when they see Ukraine coming. Ukraine will declare it a major victory to deny Russia the use of this ammo. Russia will breath a sigh of relief they were able to get rid of this outdated crap in wartime that couldn’t be disposed of in peacetime. The west will play videos of smoke and fire to e sure Ukraine gets the next round of war-prolonging but not war-winning aid.

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

Chinabots are ticked off that CH can see through the FUD and propaganda.

Korean Man
Korean Man
1 year ago

Chinabots are ticked off that CH can see through the FUD and propaganda.

Says the Chickenhead’s sock puppet.

ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

I thought I was a sock puppet of Setnaffa.

Maybe we are quantum socks in superposition.

The waveform collapses based on your needs.

Liz
Liz
1 year ago

Rut ro, something is going down in Russia.
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1672581931739881473

Looks like a military coup attempt.

Korean Man
Korean Man
1 year ago

I thought I was a sock puppet of Setnaffa.

It’s the same thing. You’re the sock puppet of the cancer brain, and the cancer brain is your sock puppet.

Korean Man
Korean Man
1 year ago

If the coup is successful, watch out. The new guy who is leading the coupe is an animal, who has murdered thousands of civilians in cold blood. I can totally see him using the nuke option. Putin is the lesser of the two evils.

Liz
Liz
1 year ago

Agreed. But, I don’t think he would last long if he actually managed to overthrow the government. Really crazy what is happening right now.

ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

There is not a coup in Russia.

There is an insurrection by a private military group that has done much of the heavy lifting yet been betrayed by corrupt Russian military leadership.

We are about to find out what Putin is made of as he maneuvers this minefield.

Liz
Liz
1 year ago

Well, looks like it is over.
That was fast.

ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

Russians are incapable of elegant action.

Whatever just happened will be completely understandable when all the information comes in.

Best I can tell:

Wagner did much of the heavy lifting yet were betrayed by corruption and greed in the Russian military.

They stood up to this and, without spilling much blood, they showed themselves to be a threat to Russia.

This has forced some changes in the stucture of everything. Good results has a lot of clout.

It will be interesting to see where this goes.

There are lots of possibilities.

In a week, this will all be much more clear.

This will probably end up good for Russia and bad for Ukraine.

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

But the real question remains: will it impact the Big Guy’s 10 percent?

Stephen
1 year ago

“This has forced some changes in the stucture of everything”

Tens of thousands of men to be “integrated” into Russian brigades with different procedures, equipment and hierarchy.

Recipe for even slower decision-making by Russian military units.

With a heightened potential for insubordination.

During the Hayride to Moscow, most of the military district leaders were stalling – hedging their bets

“But so far, the army has been unable or unwilling to stop Prigozhin’s troops, which reportedly exchanged fire with defence ministry troops while travelling toward Moscow.”

And that was in military districts in western Russia with presumably higher “loyalty” to Putin – co-opted commissars with a history of graft and corruption.

“According to Ukrainian news agencies, Kyiv has liberated territories near the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014, during the Wagner mutiny in Russia.”

“On Friday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of plotting a “terror” attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which Moscow has denied.”

Good results?

Not good for the Russian military on the frontline, not good for Ukrainian civilians, and – depending on which way the wind blows – not good for Polish, Belarusian, Russian or Romanian civilians.

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

Not good for the Russian military on the frontline, not good for Ukrainian civilians, and – depending on which way the wind blows – not good for Polish, Belarusian, Russian or Romanian civilians.

Two questions:

What makes any of us think Biden, Putin, or Zelensky cares?Have we already forgotten humanity was already killed off by global warming earlier this week?

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Last edited 1 year ago by setnaffa
ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

Stephen, so far, those who have spoken less have appeared wiser in hindsight.

While this insurrection was unexpected, the quick resolution was even more unexpected.

It is hard to make predictions because nobody is really sure what happened or why it happened… especially on the backend.

This may have been a way to shut down Wagner while getting the best deal for former Wagnerites, expose some flaws in the Russian military, and force some positive changes.

Thes things may become more clear over time. Certainly, their positive and negative effects will become more clear over time.

I am not going to make any specific predictions but I will point things out as I see them.

Experienced Wagner soldiers will easily be incorporated into the Russian system and will bring more improving tricks of the trade than fresh recruits. As they spread out and teach what they have learned, they will likely improve the capability of the Russian military.

As for Ukrainian gains. So what.

Ukrain has been going at this for weeks. They have taken a few strategically unimportant towns. They have pushed a few hundred meters into the Russian most-forward lines but have not reached any teue defensive lines.

It has cost them an unsustainable amount of men an equipment.

American taxpayers will slowly replace this bit by bit to sustain the war but not win it. This is an example of America’s elegance in dealing with “allies”.

If you go by the theory (which I do) that taking land is a secondary goal with the real goal being maximizing Ukrainian losses and minimizing Russian losses at every encounter until Ukraine runs out of men and machines and will, Russia is doing very well while the amateur analysists yell, “But but but lost land.”

This is war. Russia is essentially fighting NATO (intel, training, equipment, etc). The peacetime Russian military was a clusterfùck (even without focusing on queers, trannies, women, and minorities).

Yet they are accomplishing exactly what they claimed to do.

While Ukraine is working on the loss of their third army… the one being built since 2014, the FSU equipment from FSU NATO members, and now dumbed-down versions of actual NATO equipment.

America will watch the wholesale destruction of Bradleys and such but they won’t allow clusters of burning and captured Abrams to fill the global TV screens… that would dent the plan to restock NATO… as without true combined arms, they will do no better than the Leopard 2s.

In the end, my predictions:
– the exposure of russian military leadership will bring more accountability which will improve the overall situation logistically
– the diffusion of Wagner experience throughout the Russian military will improve it tactically
– Russia will continue a strategy of letting everyone focus on map lines (“but russia is losing”) while they focus on the true goal of demilitarizing Ukraine
– Ukraine is going to need to do something crazy to avoid donor fatigue by showing something that can be spun into a victory for the NATO taxpaying public (I predict an “unexpected stunning and brave” attack on the tactically unimportant Russian ammo storage in Transnistria that will make amazing TV).
– the Spring Offensive is unsustainable and when it ends, Russia will creep forward behind a wall of shells (as per established Soviet doctrine) and Ukraine will be able to do little about it.

So let’s see how well these predictions age.

GrayBlack
GrayBlack
1 year ago

@ChickenHead & setnaffa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuHF8BLKJWI

What’s your thoughts on this?

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

Man of Bronze, eh? Yeah, that works…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LJpsz2ZdP8I

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

“Blessed is he that expecteth nothing, for he shall be gloriously surprised.”

Flyingsword
Flyingsword
1 year ago

Putin and Wagner Group just scammed America out of $6 Billion dollars. Not a coup, not an insurrection, not a rebellion but a scam.

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

Is this how Putin deterred the Wagner Group?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oavMtUWDBTM

Last edited 1 year ago by setnaffa
ChickenHead
ChickenHead
1 year ago

GrayBlack,

When men fullfill their roll as hunter and warrior and women fullfill their roll as gatherer and nurturer, which are both equally important, there is less dysfunction in society.

Hunter, warrior, gatherer, and nurturer, are general terms for anything requiring those attitudes and skills, from the bronze age to modern society.

Modern feminists have got it in their minds that men are better than they are and their skills are more valuable.

They believe they should reject the skills that made them powerful and accomplished and persue rolls they are not naturally good at.

A few succeed. Most fail. They blame men.

An insidious response has been to feminize boys, especially by liberal feminist schoolteachers, who surpress all hunting and warring attitudes, while trying to “empower” girls with some of these attitudes.

This is what happens when you give crazy people power instead of sterilization and euthanasia.

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

I find it hilarious that, over the last 12 months, various nose-picking (i.e., CCP-funded) hacker wannabees have tried to connect with me on LinkedIn using retouched photos of the same Chinese woman. Over one a week. And, back in February, they accidentally reused the same profile image.

Almost, but not quite, as lame as the chinabots here…

At least the LinkedIn hackers try to create unique profiles for their scam.

Here’s a book I think all the bots might like:

https://www.amazon.com/Trust-Communists-Fred-1913-2009-Schwarz/dp/1014182069/

setnaffa
setnaffa
1 year ago

Yes, that means well over 70 attempts. 🙂

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