Foreign Policy Experts Believe that the US and South Korea Should Continue to Negotiate for North Korean Denuclearization

The Korea Times recently interviewed three Korean foreign policy experts about what they thought how a second Trump presidency would impact South Korea. What I found most interesting was not the Trump talk, but how these experts believe negotations with North Korea should continue to be centered around trying to get them to denuclearize:

Q: North Korea’s threat has become sophisticated. And the North had continued to build up its nuclear capabilities to solidify its status as a nuclear power. Given this, do you believe denuclearizing North Korea is achievable? Will there be a need to discard denuclearization negotiations and adopt a new format of disarmament talks? 

Kim: Denuclearization is and should continue to be an end goal to achieve. This is a daunting task unprecedented in the history of nuclear arms control and disarmament, but it cannot be given up. If we give up denuclearization, North Korea will be recognized as a de facto nuclear state. And this likely means the beginning of the collapse of the NPT. This is a nightmare for all. If North Korea becomes a nuclear weapon state, this would agitate South Koreans, and public opinion would evolve even stronger in favor of South Korea’s nuclear armament. If South Korea arms itself with nuclear weapons, other countries in the region, such as Japan and even Taiwan, will also feel the need to follow suit. If this happens, not only the U.S. but also China will face unmanageable proliferation risks. 

A nuclear-weapon-free North Korea may sound unfeasible at the moment, but we need to keep trying to make it happen. For that, we need to prevail on North Korea to come back to negotiation on the basis that everything should be on the table. This means both of our and their concerns must not be precluded from any negotiation. 

Ahn: The importance of the NPT cannot be overstated. When the treaty was proposed by the U.S. in 1960’s, the former Soviet Union was fully supportive because there was a shared belief that the international community needed such a scheme to prevent proliferation. The first survey that asked South Koreans about their opinions about South Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons was released in 2022 and at that time, 76 percent of South Koreans were in favor. The U.S. officials and think tank experts whom I met were stunned whenever they heard about the survey results. Eventually, South Koreans’ overwhelming support for nuclear armament became a type of leverage and convinced the U.S. to team up with South Korea to create the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG). The NCG is a very useful institution for South Korea and we need to make the most of it to deter North Korea’s threat.

Korea Times

You can read much more at the link, but I just don’t see how you negotiate to achieve something that is not going to happen. Kim Jong-un is not going to give up his nuclear weapons, it is his ultimate regime survival trump card. Plus his nuclear weapons program to continues to make his regime relevant internationally. He has already turned down a deal for denuclearization in return for dropping of sanctions and nothing has changed in the intervening years that would change his mind.

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setnaffa
setnaffa
8 months ago

To my knowledge, only a few nations have given up their nuclear weapons. South Africa and Ukraine spring to mind.

How has that helped or hurt them?

ChickenHead
ChickenHead
8 months ago

FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS BELIEVE THAT THE US AND SOUTH KOREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO NEGOTIATE FOR NORTH KOREAN DENUCLEARIZATION

That is a divide-by-zero statement.

Anybody who believes that is not an expert.

setnaffa
setnaffa
8 months ago

CH, as I see it, the people who want to continue the charade are paid by the hour with no penalties for failure to deliver success.

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ChickenHead
ChickenHead
8 months ago

When the commies start yapping their stupid shít, I encourage and enthusiastically agree.

At some point, I start enquiring how we will divide the fruits of their labor.

What I learned is that communism doesn’t work that way.

It turns out that all the people pushing communism expect ME to divide the fruits of MY labor.

I see.

Not a good deal, really.

May I buy you a half-way ticket on a helicopter?

setnaffa
setnaffa
8 months ago

CH, that reminds me:

The Little Red Hen

Once upon a time, Little Red Hen lived on a farm with a dog, a pig and a cow.

Little Red Hen worked hard every day to grow plants in her garden.

The dog, the pig, and the cow did nothing but sleep all day in the warm sun and watch Little Red Hen work in her garden.

One day, Little Red Hen found a grain of wheat.

“Who will help me plant this wheat so that we can eat fresh bread?” she said.

“Not I,” said the dog.

“Not I,” said the pig.

“Not I,” said the cow.

“I will plant it myself then,” said Little Red Hen, and she planted the grain of wheat.

Little Red Hen took good care of her wheat, but the dog, the pig and the cow said they were too tired to help.

By the end of the summer, the wheat grew very tall. It was time to cut the wheat and take it to the mill.

“Who will help me cut the wheat and take it to the mill so that we can have fresh bread?”

“Not I,” said the dog.

“Not I,” said the pig.

“Not I,” said the cow.

“Well then, I will take it to the mill myself,” said Little Red Hen, and she cut the wheat and set off for the mill.

After the miller made wheat into soft flour, she came back to the farm and asked, “Who will help me bake the bread?”

“Not I,” said the dog.

“Not I,” said the pig.

“Not I,” said the cow.

“Well then, I will bake the bread myself.” And she did just that!

She mixed the flour with salt and yeast to make the dough. After the dough rose, she put it in the oven to bake.

When the bread was done, she asked, “Who will help me eat the bread?”

“I will”, said the dog.

“I will”, said the pig.

“I will”, said the cow.

“No, you will not,” said Little Red Hen.

“You did not help me plant the grain, and you did not help me care for it. You did not help me cut it and take it to the mill. You did not even help me make the bread. I will eat it myself.”

And she did.

little-red-hen
setnaffa
setnaffa
8 months ago

And to the dogs, pigs, cows, and grasshoppers out there—you know who you are, you moochers and looters, may you wake up before it’s too late.

Because a time is coming where governments will run short of everything but you.

And then it’ll be too late.

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