Lee Jae-myung Dominates Early Polling for South Korea’s Upcoming Snap Election

As expected it looks like Lee Jae-myung is going to win the Korean presidency in a landslide because of his name recognition, the PPP being tarnished by Yoon’s impeachment, and the fact the PPP is fractured and cannot rally around a single candidate:

This undated composite photo shows Lee Jae-myung (L), former leader of the Democratic Party, and former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo. (Yonhap)

This undated composite photo shows Lee Jae-myung (L), former leader of the Democratic Party, and former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo. (Yonhap)

A former leader of the Democratic Party (DP), Rep. Lee Jae-myung, is leading the race for the presidency of South Korea with nearly 49 percent support, a poll showed Monday. 

South Korea will hold a presidential election on June 3 as the Constitutional Court removed former President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over his failed martial law bid. 

According to the survey conducted by Realmeter on 1,506 adults aged over 18 from Wednesday to Friday, Lee topped the list with 48.8 percent.

Former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, who joined the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and declared his bid last week, came next with 10.9 percent, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous week.

Acting President Han Duck-soo made his first appearance in the survey with 8.6 percent, though he has not officially announced his presidential run. 

Former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon received 6.2 percent, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo garnered 5.2 percent, followed by Lee Jun-seok, a lawmaker of the minor opposition New Reform Party, at 3 percent. Support for other potential candidates was below 3 percent.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

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ChickenHead
ChickenHead
13 hours ago

I have a better-than-chance record of predicting the future and how to make a little money off it. I don’t get greedy so I’m not a billionaire. But when I lose, it isn’t a crisis.

You only need to be a bit better than chance to be a winner. It is that simple.

I feel bad I didn’t let you in on what the market would do with Trump’s intentionally-created volatility.

Somebody asked me to give my thoughts on how to prosper during a Lee Jae-myung administration.

I will share a much-abridged version with you.

I have put my money where my mouth is by investing in companies which will do well if my prediction comes true.

Let’s look back on it and see how close I was.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. I may be talking out of my àss. This is only given to you for consideration as additional input while you make your own decisions.

Note: If you profit, I will supply my crypto wallet so you can send 10% for the Big Guy.

1. Positioning for a China-South Korea Economic Thaw

If ties with China warm, expect:

Increased trade and investment flows, especially in consumer electronics, automotive, renewables, and agriculture.

Opportunities in:

Logistics and trade facilitation: especially near Incheon, Busan, or inland ports.

Chinese language services: interpretation, legal assistance, education, cross-border e-commerce.

Import/export businesses: especially in cosmetics, K-food, industrial parts.

Tactic: Consider joint ventures with Chinese SMEs or set up e-commerce pipelines via Alibaba/Taobao/Kakao-Mall integration.

2. North Korea Economic Engagement Readiness

If engagement increases, expect:

Development projects in border areas (e.g., Kaesong Industrial Complex 2.0)

Demand for infrastructure planning, engineering, and humanitarian logistics

NGO and UN-backed programs that need South Korean implementation partners

Tactic: Position yourself or your business for:

Consulting/contracting roles in inter-Korean development initiatives

Logistics support services in the North-South corridor

Agricultural technology exports or services relevant to underdeveloped regions

3. Domestic Welfare & Economic Redistribution Policies

Lee tends to favor universal basic income, welfare expansion, and state investment.

This will likely mean:

More subsidies for SMEs and social enterprises

Increased taxes on real estate and capital gains

Public sector job creation, digitalization, and green energy funding

Tactic:

Launch social enterprises or tech startups that can benefit from state grants

Avoid overexposure to luxury real estate or heavily taxed asset classes

Consider tech/services tied to elder care, remote learning, or green transitions

4. Navigating a Possible U.S.-South Korea Chill

If U.S. ties cool due to pivoting toward China or NK:

Defense exports and military cooperation may stagnate

U.S. companies may be less enthusiastic about Korean partnerships

But other non-Western alliances (BRICS, ASEAN) could grow

Tactic:

Build ties with emerging markets, especially Southeast Asia or Middle Eastern partners

Diversify investments away from U.S.-centric industries, focusing on neutral tech, commodities, and energy

5. Media, Censorship, and Narrative Control

If his administration favors media control or ideological alignment:

Traditional media may consolidate, while alternative media may face regulation

However, there will be state-backed media and content opportunities

Tactic:

Invest in government-aligned cultural content: dramas, documentaries, digital education

Be cautious about politically sensitive investments or commentary

…the elegant part of all this is those like the Korea Thing(s) will have absolutely no idea what to do with this information except scream that the rich somehow got richer.

I don’t really know what I would do with a lot of money but I know I can never get enough lefty tears.

152G
152G
6 hours ago

10% for the big guy in Pyongyang? The intermediary for the real string puller in Beijing.

ChickenHead
ChickenHead
5 hours ago

No, silly, MY crypto wallet. I’m the Big Guy.

Don’t give it to some other Big Guy so he can build nukes and rockets.

Korean Man
Korean Man
1 hour ago

I may be talking out of my àss

Well… at least you know where you stand…. you said it, I didn’t.

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