How Real Are North Korea’s Nuclear and ICBM Capabilities?
Could North Korea be showing off its nuclear and ICBM weapon tests to simply make people think they have more capability than they really have? That is what some researchers think:
Ahead of a rare ruling party Congress next month, secretive North Korea is revealing details of its weapons development program for the first time, showcasing its push to develop long-range nuclear missiles despite international sanctions.
Until recently, information on the North’s weapons program was hard to come by, with foreign governments and experts relying on satellite imagery, tiny samples of atomic particles collected after nuclear tests and mangled parts and materials recovered from long-range rocket launches.
No longer. In just over a month, the North has published articles with technicolor photographic detail on a range of tests and other activities that point to fast-paced efforts to build a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
The reason for the revelations, many analysts say, is that Pyongyang believes convincing the world, and its own people, of its nuclear prowess is as important as the prowess itself. Nevertheless, isolated North Korea’s true capabilities and intentions remain unknown.
“Close-up pictures of ground test activities are almost unprecedented from the DPRK,” John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in satellite and launch vehicle propulsion systems, told Reuters.
DPRK stands for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the North’s official name. The reclusive state has conducted four nuclear tests in the past 10 years, the last in January.
“The openness suggests that the underlying strategy is as much diplomatic as military: it is important to Pyongyang not only that they have these capabilities, but that we believe they have these capabilities,” Schilling said. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link.
The reason for the revelations, many analysts say, is that Pyongyang believes convincing the world, and its own people, of its nuclear prowess is as important as the prowess itself.
—– end quote —–
Well, yes, this is textbook nuclear brinkmanship. A country must convince the outside world that it has nuclear weapons and that it is willing to use them if attacked. That’s how it has always worked. In this regard, North Korea is playing the same game that other nuclear powers have been playing for decades. The difference here is that North Korea doesn’t seem to understand the diplomatic rules of the game very well. A true nuclear power doesn’t need to overtly threaten to turn other countries into a “sea of fire.”
Within that same country, its citizens are assured that they are safe to go about their lives because of these nuclear weapons that they possess. Doing so justifies the costs of the weapons program and bolsters the government’s credibility.