Stephen Haggard Sees Recent Defections As Sign of Possible Regime Collapse

It would be interesting to know if the recent defection of a North Korean diplomat also included the confiscation of regime funds:

Defection by North Korean diplomats who have access to foreign currency holdings would make it harder for North Korea to bring in money from abroad which can eventually hasten the communist regime’s collapse in the event of a financial crisis, a renowned U.S. scholar said Monday.

The analysis by Stephen Haggard, professor at the University of California San Diego, reflects the speculation of growing instability in North Korea, as seen by recent defections of North Korean overseas workers who had played a part in repatriating hard currency to the cash-strapped regime.

Last week, the South Korean government confirmed that a London-based senior North Korean diplomat defected to the South with his family, which can be viewed as another sign of cracks in the North’s ability to keep its key people in check.

Seoul did not confirm whether the diplomat, Thae Yong-ho, brought foreign currency with him, but news reports said his escape may have dealt a blow to North Korea’s overseas earnings because he reportedly may have had knowledge of the foreign exchange operations of the Kim Jong-un regime in Europe.

In April, a group of 13 North Korean employees working at a North Korean state-run restaurant in China defected to South Korea en mass, spawning speculations that the sanctions-squeezed North Korean elite were feeling the pinch of United Nations’ sanctions on the communist country and opting to bolt.

“Historically, I’ve never thought of the collapse of North Korea in terms of political collapse, but I believe in the scenario … with respect to the possibility of financial crisis,” the professor said in a seminar arranged by the East Asia Foundation in Seoul.

North Korea’s thinning foreign currency income, caused by UN-imposed trade bans and the shutdown of its inter-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex, left the country vulnerable to the possibility of a “sudden” financial crisis that can lead to a subsequent regime collapse, he said.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but as Mr. Haggard points out in the article as long as China continues to not impose UN sanctions on North Korea the Kim regime will likely continue to survive.