Should the South Korean Government Pursue a Trilateral Security Pact?
|ROK Drop favorite Andrew Salmon writes in the Korea Times about if the Moon administration should pursue a trilateral security pact with the United States with the third country not being Japan, but North Korea:
But even if South Korea can defend itself against North Korea conventionally, there are broader reasons to maintain a Washington alliance.
This alliance goes beyond USFK. Its underpinning is a mutual defense treaty ― which, incidentally, does not even mention North Korea.
There is no multilateral security architecture in the region; no Northeast Asian NATO. We all know that _ for emotive rather than political reasons ― Koreans cannot ally with Japanese. This makes the U.S. South Korea’s only friend to turn to if things turn rough. It has no other ally. Period.
Speaking of the broader peninsula: What is more threatening? A superpower across the Pacific ― or a superpower next door? Could ― gulp! ― Seoul and Washington one day invite Pyongyang into a trilateral pact against external enemies?
This is not complete lunacy. After all, the late Kim Jong-il told the late Kim Dae-jung that he agreed to a long-term US presence on the peninsula to counterbalance a rising China.
I would respectfully suggest that Seoul considers these factors very carefully as it negotiates the upcoming issues of defense cost-sharing and wartime operational control with Washington.
These are big-picture issues here. There are big-boys’ rules to consider. In a situation where all possibilities are in play, there is more at stake than North-South rapprochement. [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but if this was to happen this would be a huge strategic victory for the US against Chinese hegemony in northeast Asia. Could you imagine a Foal Eagle exercise with US soldiers training with North Korean troops?
No I cannot foresee Foal Eagle involving North Korea. China is about 90% of all of North Korea’s economic trading activity and no matter how concerned KJU is about a rising (risen?) China, that are still the only friend North Korea has. Perhaps my doubt is colored by 68 years of history (this week no less), but the chances of North Korea shrugging off their largest trading partner to partner with South Korea & the US without serious and permanent reform in North Korea are very remote.