Is Dismantling of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station Significant?
|Here is the latest so called progress on the North Korea denuclearization issue:
North Korea has started dismantling some facilities at its main satellite launch station, seen as the testing ground for its intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to expert analysis of recent satellite images.
If confirmed, the analysis by respected US-based website 38 North could signal a step forward after last month’s landmark summit between Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump, although some experts questioned the significance of the gesture.
After the summit, Trump had declared the North Korean nuclear threat was effectively over, and US media reports suggest he is privately furious at the lack of any subsequent progress on the denuclearisation issue. [AFP]
Before anyone gets excited by this news, it is important to note that the satellite launch site has nothing do with North Korea’s nuclear program. I have always believed that the Kim regime would be more willing to make concessions over their ICBM program and market it as being a step towards denuclearization in return for US concessions. That appears to be what they are doing.
Additionally this concession at their satellite launch site does not really effect their ICBM program anyway:
Melissa Hanham, senior research associate with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, said that while dismantling the engine test site was a “good move”, it amounted to “the bare minimum” that could be done at Sohae.
“Unless they dismantle the whole site, it will remain North Korea’s premier location for space launches,” Hanham said on Twitter.
“North Korea does not need the Sohae engine test stand anymore if it is confident in the engine design. As (Kim Jong Un) said himself, North Korea is moving from testing to mass production,” she said, adding that observers should look for signs of new sites where more missiles could be built.
So basically North Korea is dismantling something it doesn’t really need right now that they can then reconstruct when needed in a matter of days. Is this something I am supposed to be excited about?