Taiwan Issue Puts Japan In Tough Spot With Its Relationship with China
|With tensions increasing between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, the Japanese Times has a long article about what Japan should do in response. Here is an excerpt:
Ben Self, vice president of the Mike and Maureen Mansfield Foundation, counters that “overt steps by Tokyo to defend Taipei will produce a reflexive and even neuralgic response” in Beijing. While he concedes that this may look like appeasement, it is in fact “an acceptance of the reality that this issue is one of critical national importance to the CCP and its regime stability.”
That doesn’t mean abandoning the island. Instead, Self argues, Japan should “significantly increase interoperability with the United States, while maintaining current levels of sub rosa contact with Taiwan’s defense establishment.”
Even that will be difficult. Any effort to strengthen ties with Taiwan must overcome the powerful opposition of political and business forces in Tokyo that prioritize smooth relations with Beijing.
Yoji Koda, former Maritime Self-Defense Force fleet commander, laments that “overdependence on China’s market and too-deep interdependence really impede efforts to promote and improve Japan-Taiwan relations.”
He believes the government is similarly inclined to overweight Beijing’s concerns. Weak leadership “that does not want to create complicated issues with China prevents Japan from taking active actions and maneuvers to help Taiwan.” Nothing will change, he warns, until something serious happens between Japan and China or Taiwan and China. That possibility grows more likely daily.
Japan Times
You can read more at the link, but basically Japan wants to keep the status quo like just about every other country in the region. However, as China grows in military might it appears they are less interested in maintaining the status quo and at some point nations in the region are going to have to make tough decisions.
“will produce a reflexive and even neuralgic response”
I agree that a reflexive response is a possibility.
I am not so sure about a neuralgic response. I suspect the response will be more nociceptive or somatic. I could even be visceral.
Whatever the case, the response can likely be countered with 5 to 15 milligrams (mg) of OcyContin every 4 to 6 hours as needed.
I picture “kinetic action” over Taiwan by either “side” resulting in the possibility of interned or sinking oil tankers headed into the Western Pacific region…
Which players would be the most likely to suffer? They might be the first to surrender.
Which players would be the most likely to profit? They might be the ones agitating for armed confrontation.
When China annexes Taiwan like Russia did Crimea, the international community will do the same thing – nothing.
That might be true. But Winnie might run out of boats…