Lee Jae-myung Dominates Early Polling for South Korea’s Upcoming Snap Election
As expected it looks like Lee Jae-myung is going to win the Korean presidency in a landslide because of his name recognition, the PPP being tarnished by Yoon’s impeachment, and the fact the PPP is fractured and cannot rally around a single candidate:
This undated composite photo shows Lee Jae-myung (L), former leader of the Democratic Party, and former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo. (Yonhap)
A former leader of the Democratic Party (DP), Rep. Lee Jae-myung, is leading the race for the presidency of South Korea with nearly 49 percent support, a poll showed Monday.
South Korea will hold a presidential election on June 3 as the Constitutional Court removed former President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over his failed martial law bid.
According to the survey conducted by Realmeter on 1,506 adults aged over 18 from Wednesday to Friday, Lee topped the list with 48.8 percent.
Former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, who joined the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and declared his bid last week, came next with 10.9 percent, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous week.
Acting President Han Duck-soo made his first appearance in the survey with 8.6 percent, though he has not officially announced his presidential run.
Former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon received 6.2 percent, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo garnered 5.2 percent, followed by Lee Jun-seok, a lawmaker of the minor opposition New Reform Party, at 3 percent. Support for other potential candidates was below 3 percent.
You can read more at the link.
I have a better-than-chance record of predicting the future and how to make a little money off it. I don’t get greedy so I’m not a billionaire. But when I lose, it isn’t a crisis.
You only need to be a bit better than chance to be a winner. It is that simple.
I feel bad I didn’t let you in on what the market would do with Trump’s intentionally-created volatility.
Somebody asked me to give my thoughts on how to prosper during a Lee Jae-myung administration.
I will share a much-abridged version with you.
I have put my money where my mouth is by investing in companies which will do well if my prediction comes true.
Let’s look back on it and see how close I was.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. I may be talking out of my àss. This is only given to you for consideration as additional input while you make your own decisions.
Note: If you profit, I will supply my crypto wallet so you can send 10% for the Big Guy.
1. Positioning for a China-South Korea Economic Thaw
If ties with China warm, expect:
Increased trade and investment flows, especially in consumer electronics, automotive, renewables, and agriculture.
Opportunities in:
Logistics and trade facilitation: especially near Incheon, Busan, or inland ports.
Chinese language services: interpretation, legal assistance, education, cross-border e-commerce.
Import/export businesses: especially in cosmetics, K-food, industrial parts.
Tactic: Consider joint ventures with Chinese SMEs or set up e-commerce pipelines via Alibaba/Taobao/Kakao-Mall integration.
2. North Korea Economic Engagement Readiness
If engagement increases, expect:
Development projects in border areas (e.g., Kaesong Industrial Complex 2.0)
Demand for infrastructure planning, engineering, and humanitarian logistics
NGO and UN-backed programs that need South Korean implementation partners
Tactic: Position yourself or your business for:
Consulting/contracting roles in inter-Korean development initiatives
Logistics support services in the North-South corridor
Agricultural technology exports or services relevant to underdeveloped regions
3. Domestic Welfare & Economic Redistribution Policies
Lee tends to favor universal basic income, welfare expansion, and state investment.
This will likely mean:
More subsidies for SMEs and social enterprises
Increased taxes on real estate and capital gains
Public sector job creation, digitalization, and green energy funding
Tactic:
Launch social enterprises or tech startups that can benefit from state grants
Avoid overexposure to luxury real estate or heavily taxed asset classes
Consider tech/services tied to elder care, remote learning, or green transitions
4. Navigating a Possible U.S.-South Korea Chill
If U.S. ties cool due to pivoting toward China or NK:
Defense exports and military cooperation may stagnate
U.S. companies may be less enthusiastic about Korean partnerships
But other non-Western alliances (BRICS, ASEAN) could grow
Tactic:
Build ties with emerging markets, especially Southeast Asia or Middle Eastern partners
Diversify investments away from U.S.-centric industries, focusing on neutral tech, commodities, and energy
5. Media, Censorship, and Narrative Control
If his administration favors media control or ideological alignment:
Traditional media may consolidate, while alternative media may face regulation
However, there will be state-backed media and content opportunities
Tactic:
Invest in government-aligned cultural content: dramas, documentaries, digital education
Be cautious about politically sensitive investments or commentary
…the elegant part of all this is those like the Korea Thing(s) will have absolutely no idea what to do with this information except scream that the rich somehow got richer.
I don’t really know what I would do with a lot of money but I know I can never get enough lefty tears.
10% for the big guy in Pyongyang? The intermediary for the real string puller in Beijing.
No, silly, MY crypto wallet. I’m the Big Guy.
Don’t give it to some other Big Guy so he can build nukes and rockets.
Well… at least you know where you stand…. you said it, I didn’t.
South Korea May Ally Closer to China After Yoon’s Impeachment
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/south-korea-may-ally-closer-to-china-after-yoons-impeachment
Americans continue to misconstrue the opposition, Lee Jae Myung. The above article I posted, a perfect example of what I’m talking about.
The DPK party, it’s a party of Democrats. While it may not be perfect, it will be truer to democratic principles – at least far more than what Yoon’s autocratic party used to be.
Also, the American right just does not understand. Lee has constantly said that he will put Korea’s interests first, instead of America’s (what Yoon did) or China’s. What Trump is doing is bullying South Korea, trying to forcibly extract large amounts of cash from South Koreans, as well as to drain their industries and jobs, to give everything to the White American population (the MAGA movement hates immigrants and brown people). LJM will not like that. If Trump insists on staying the course with this, then what country would not look for other countries to trade with?
EU, Canada, Mexico, Africa, SEA, and Japan are all talking to China to diversify their markets. The world is uniting against an isolated United States, with its reserve currency status in peril because the world will no longer let the US abuse its current reserve status. SK won’t be any different. Unlike the current government, Lee won’t hesitate to give the finger to the US, and focus on other countries. There won’t be the same obsession with constant appeasement of the impossible, never-ending US demands, as the current Korean ruling party is stricken with.
However, that is not nearly the same thing as “South Korea will ally closer with China”. What a bullshit.
The entire peninsula turns red.
“I may be talking out of my àss”
“Well… at least you know where you stand…. you said it, I didn’t.”
I have no idea where I stand.
I also may NOT be talking out of my àss.
It is unclear what kind of point you think you make when you grasp a clear non-statement and yell, “Ah-hah!”
Perhaps it is part of your buffoon act?