Kim Jong-il May Name a Successor Soon

Andrei Lankov continues to crank out great articles. The latest article over at Asia Times is about Kim Jong Il possibly being ready to name a successor:

Now, at long last, we know what North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, told his wife more than 60 years ago about his intentions for dynastic succession – or at least what a Korean broadcast says that he said. Korea watchers are parsing this purported political pillow-talk – or some other private conversation or fabrication – stitched together by propagandists. And it comes on the eve of current Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s 64th birthday on February 16, with no known plans for his succession.

North Korean radio cited comments that Kim Il-sung, the dynasty’s founder, allegedly made when talking to his wife in 1943 (in all probability, these comments are pure invention – like more or less the entire “history of the Great Leader” as taught in North Korea). The Great Leader reportedly told his wife: “I would obey my father’s instruction to struggle for Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule and establish the communist country … if I fail, the tasks should be carried out by my son and grandson.” This was broadcast on January 27.

So, for the first time we have Kim Il-sung’s grandsons in the picture. Or have we? After all, many analysts interpret this as yet another propaganda exercise aimed at promoting Kim Jong-il, not his sons. But the majority seem to believe that these remarks do have some hidden meaning, indicating that Pyongyang leaders finally have decided to move ahead with their succession plans.

I tend to agree with this statement here:

It is widely believed that a dynastic succession is the only way to save the regime from collapse after Kim Jong-il’s death. If a new leader came from outside the ruling family, he would have too much incentive to negotiate surrender to the prosperous and powerful South, likely sacrificing the lives and property of the current elite in exchange for his own security. He would also probably lack the legitimacy necessary to keep the country and populace under control. Frankly, this writer believes that nothing short of Chinese intervention will save the regime one way or another, but if the Pyongyang royalty does not want to go down without a fight, it makes sense to appoint a new leader from the incumbent royal family.

You can read the rest on your own. It is an interesting read.

North Korea doesn’t necessarily need to name someone from the Kim family to be the successor. Anyone with blood on their hands would be suitable. They cannot name someone with a clean record because that person would have to much incentive to broker for peace with the South which means all the perks of the communist elite in Pyongyang is gone. So it is in their interest to name someone with a shady background.

However, they would not want to name someone to despotic because that would cramp their luxurious lifestyles also if they have a Stalin like person hovering over them which they have to be afraid of. At least with Kim Jong Il he is reported to be a likeable party guy in private.

So naming his oldest son Kim Jong-nam may not be a bad choice because he seems a rather layed back guy, heck he tried to go to Tokyo Disneland, but he also has a lot of baggage because he is Kim Jong Il’s son after all. So if the elites name him the successor they need to get him quickly involved in the intelligence service and have him order some airplane bombed like Kim Jong Il reportedly did in the 80’s to make no doubt that he has no choice but to keep the North Korean system functioning. This is probably the elites best bet to stay in power. However, it is becoming obvious that their days are numbered and no North Korean leader can do anything about that.