Next Generation Defense or Potential Money Maker?

The ROK Army is getting a defense upgrade with the introduction of the XK2 “Black Panther“:

Korea’s first domestically-made amphibious tank, featuring an auto loaded 120-mm cannon, rolled off the assembly line in Changwon, Friday (March 2).

The next-generation tank, code named “XK2” and nicknamed “Black Panther,” will replace the older K1 and American M47/48 tanks starting in 2011, defense officials said.

The new model features an auto loaded 120 mm cannon, can reach speeds of up to 70 km per hour, and can cross rivers as deep as 4.1 meters using a snorkle, according to its developer, the Agency for Defense Development (ADD).

At the launch ceremony for the tank, President Roh Moo-hyun stressed that Korea’s development of a top-tier weapon such as the XK2 with its own technology testifies to the country’s defense capability.

“The development of the world’s top-level tank–in both mobility and firepower–with our own technology shows the world our commitment to self-defense,” Roh said during the ceremony held at the ADD facilities in Changwon, Gyeongsang nam-do (South Gyeongsang Province).

This really does appear to be a great tank. The tank is a bit lighter than a US M1 and the armament and speed are slightly better. The tank can also drive underwater with a big snorkel which I would love to see a demonstration of how long it can stay underwater like that. You can watch this KBS video of the K1 in action which includes a demonstration of it underwater capability. The XK2 just like the K1 also maintains the hydraulic technology that allows the tank to fire down hill, which is extremely important in mountainous terrain like Korea.

The automatic loader feature of the XK2 is a great innovation, which means that the tank crew is one man less than a normal tank crew. It may not seem like a big deal, but when you start massing producing these tanks across the force that saved man power adds up. Additionally it has its own C4I technology which means that the tank commander has a screen where he can digitally see through GPS technology where friendly and enemy units are located at and send messages and issue orders through this screen to adjacent units. This is a great system if it works. What I’m curious about is if the C4I technology is compatible with US C4I? Would the ROK Army assets appear on US military C4I screens? I suspect not.

The air defense capabilities of the tank may be over stated. I have seen M1 tanks during National Training Center rotations shoot down helicopters plenty of times by massing fires on the target. US air defenders who used to man Bradley Stinger Fighting Vehicles would train shooting down helicopters using the Bradley’s 25mm cannon. So the fact that the XK2’s main gun can shoot down a helicopter is nothing new. What is interesting is that the fitted the tank with a Identify Friendly Foe (IFF) system that is used to interrogate aircraft to see if they are hostile or not. This tends to indicate that the tank may be used as a primary air defense weapon. It will be interesting to see how this plays out because if the tank can properly execute an air defense mission then that could save more man power by not needing as many air defense soldiers.

The importance of saving man power may not be important now for the ROK Army, but it will be important if the ROK decides implement an all volunteer force in the future. First of all you don’t have to recruit as many people and secondly you don’t have to pay to train or retain those soldiers that would normally fill that position. Over the long run that becomes a big defense savings. Additionally, countries that Korea may attempt to sell this system to, may have all volunteer forces which makes the system more appealing to them to purchase.

The price of the tank is steep though, costing about $8.5 million US dollars per tank. Compare that cost to a US M1 Abrams that the latest models cost around $4.3 million US dollars per tank. The bottom line is that the tank is slightly better than an M1 Abrams, but is it worth double the cost of buying a M1? That all depends on the size of the pocket book of countries interested in buying it. Especially when you factor things like how much does it cost to up keep the tank per year? Additionally, the availability of parts is another critical aspect of this tank for any international buyers.

I think it is important to realize that the production of this new tank is more likely driven initially by its export potential than President Roh’s claims to a “commitment to self-defense”. Take a look for example at Korea’s recent introduction of the K-9/K-10 “Thunder” self propelled artillery system.

The K9/K10 system is one of the best self propelled artillery system in the world and superior even to the US M109 “Paladin” system and vastly superior if equipped with the K10 package. However, before the system was even fielded to the ROK Army it was being sold and exported abroad. The first country the developer of the K9, Samsung Techwin, sold the system to was Turkey who received its first batch of K9s in 2004 and has since bought the license from Samsung Techwin to domestically produce the K9 in Turkey. Turkey is expected to field a force of 300 K9s by 2011. This total deal for Samsung Techwin was worth a reported $1 billion US dollars.

Samsung Techwin is continuing to test the system for potential international buyers such as Malaysia, Australia, and Spain to name a few interested countries. The K9 is expected to claim 31% of the world’s self propelled artillery market by 2015 making them the world’s leaders in this field over rivals such as Germany and Japan. While the K9 is being sold overseas to countries like Turkey, the ROK Army still hasn’t been fully fielded with the new K9.

I expect the XK2 will probably also be aggressively marketed overseas to potential buyers just like the K9/K10. This statement by ADD Direct Ahn Dong-man tends to support my thesis:

Having developed a tank, a land weapon symbol, based on independent technology, we not only can secure superiority over the panzer force of North Korea but also can export the tank since it has high-tech performance and price competitiveness.

You can read more here and here.