The Countdown to Reneging Begins

North Korea has reportedly shut down its nuclear reactor and the countdown to the eventual reneging on the deal by the North Koreans has begun.  What will be the cause for the reneging?  This Chosun Ilbo article casually mentions it here:

After shutting down its main facility, Pyongyang has pledged to disclose and disable all of its nuclear programs in exchange for humanitarian assistance equivalent to one million tons of heavy fuel oil.

Does anyone really think Pyongyang is going to give up the nuclear weapons they currently have as well as fully disclose their secret HEU program?  If you believe in this deal that is what you have to trust the North Koreans to comply with.  History has shown us that North Korea has no intentions of giving up their nuclear weapons program, but are more than willing to use them as a bartering tool to get concessions from the international community for giving back little in return.  Look how much Kim Jong-il received for shutting down a reactor he can just as easily turn right back on again.  Meanwhile an issue that it appears governments around the world would rather just forget about is the massive human rights violations and suffering of the North Korean people. 

The Bush administration doesn’t appear to eager to confront Pyongyang on these issues so I expect the status quo to remain until President Bush leaves office.  When Kim Jong-il demands his next pay day from the next US President you can expect the ransom to be much higher with the time he has gained to perfect both his ICBM and nuclear capabilities.  Despite these realities some how in Washington this deal is applauded as a foreign policy victory.  It boggles the mind. 

Make sure you check out DPRK Studies as well as One Free Korea for even greater analysis on this issue.