Japan May Expand Naval Operations Into the South China Sea

It will be interesting to see what the South Korean reaction will be if the Japanese decide to expand their naval operations into the South China Sea:

Japan is interested in the South China Sea disputes gripping Southeast Asia for two main reasons. First, any tension in these waters could disrupt the free flow of traffic through critical sea lines, which are vital for resource-poor Japan’s economy and survival. Second, Japanese officials are closely monitoring how China handles these island disputes to try to discern how China might try to deal with Japan in their ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.

The interconnectedness of these two issues is evident in the rife speculation that China might unilaterally declare an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea after it did so in the East China Sea in November 2013 (speculation which China has consistently denied). Such interconnectedness also leads to concerns that a negative outcome – a resolution of a dispute through the use or threat of the use of force – could set a precedent that affects other disputes. By supporting front-line states in the South China Sea, Japan sees itself as defending its own interests by upholding the norm of peaceful resolution, ironically, through military deterrence.

The U.S. would endorse a move in Japan’s security posture toward greater assertiveness and collaboration with Southeast Asian partners. Admiral Robert Thomas, commander of the Seventh Fleet, said in an interview to Reuters, “I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.”   [The Diplomat]

You can read more at the link, but the Japanese are seriously considering expanding air and naval operations into the South China Sea.  It seems to me this will just increase the chances of an incident between China and Japan happening.  The most likely incident would be the Chinese provoking Japanese patrols with their fishing boat fleet to create an incident.  I hope before the Japanese move forward with this that they really think through how they would respond to Chinese provocations against their forces.