Iran Nuclear Deal Reached, Are They Pulling A North Korea?

I hope this deal works out, but considering North Korea is one of Iran’s best friends they would be well versed how to maintain a secret nuclear program and then back out of deal by blaming the other side:

Secretary of State John Kerry, in Lausanne, Switzerland, watched President Obama speak Thursday at the White House about the general agreement reached with Iran on its nuclear program. Credit Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski

Even two of the most skeptical experts on the negotiations — Gary Samore and Olli Heinonen of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and members of a group call United Against Nuclear Iran — said they were impressed with the depth of detail.

Mr. Samore, who was Mr. Obama’s top adviser on weapons of mass destruction in his first term as president, said in an email that there is “much detail to be negotiated but I think it’s enough to be called a political framework.” Just a day ago, that appeared in doubt.

Mr. Heinonen, the former chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said “it appears to be a fairly comprehensive deal with most important parameters.” But he cautioned that “Iran maintains enrichment capacity, which will be beyond its near-term needs.”

According to European officials, roughly 5,000 centrifuges will remain spinning enriched uranium at the main nuclear site at Natanz, about half the number currently running. The giant underground enrichment site at Fordo — which Israeli and some American officials fear is impervious to bombing — will be partly converted to advanced nuclear research and the production of medical isotopes. Foreign scientists will be present. There will be no fissile material present that could be used to make a bomb.

A major reactor at Arak, which officials feared could produce plutonium, would operate on a limited basis that would not provide enough fuel for a bomb.

In return, the European Union and the United States would begin to lift sanctions, as Iran complied. At a news conference after the announcement, Mr. Zarif said that essentially all sanctions would be lifted after the final agreement is signed.  [New York Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but North Korea first started negotiating in regards to their nuclear program back in 1994.  Now 21 years later they have nuclear weapons.  The Iranians if they choose to follow the same path will probably have nuclear weapons even sooner than that.  I think a lot of the decision on whether to covertly build nukes will depend on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the coming years.  Despite the media reports I think Iran wants nuclear weapons more for regime survival than to attack Israel with.  In the coming years if Iran feels like they are getting surrounded by hostile ISIS affiliates and Sunni governments they may then feel compelled to move forward with a covert nuclear weapons program.  This deal will allow them to keep that possibility open in the long term while still complying with the agreement to get sanctions dropped in the near term.

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Louis T Dechert
Louis T Dechert
9 years ago

GI KOREA’S COMPARISON IS RIGHT ON! See http://www.wsj.com/articles/dan-henninger-why-the-iran-deal-is-irrelevant-1427930123?tesla=y
for excellent and concise summary of the North Korean endless negotiations.

Obama gave a lengthy bs session on TV yesterday, BUT all the time all I heard was “If you like your Doctor, you can keep your doctor, if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance,” . . . . .

I am reminded of a college cheer that went something like, “SECOND CHAPTER SAME AS THE FIRST; SHOULD GET BETTER BUT IT ONLY GETS WORSE.”

BenjoDitch
BenjoDitch
9 years ago

Iran will be much worse than NK, as they will gain Nukes & use them in an “Apocalypse Now,” scenario to destroy Israel & gain control of ALL Gulf states…

JoeC
JoeC
9 years ago

What’s the alternative? Bombing them?

Colonel (R) Don Clarke
Colonel (R) Don Clarke
9 years ago

Dealing with the Iranians is akin to dancing with the devil, and if you go to the negotiating table believing the devil will consent and allow you to dance lead, then your going to go home with some very bruised toes.

johnnyboy
johnnyboy
9 years ago

I don’t think we will have to bomb them. Israel would probably do it before it ever got to that point.

Repercussions to their U.S. military aid or not, Israel probably already has plans in place for when the Iranian nuclear program progresses far enough.

The water is so murky here, it’s hard to tell what the best course of action is or if we really just achieved a worthwhile deal or not.

It’s also hard to negotiate with Iran when they are involved in so many of our areas of interest. Unspoken allies against ISIS in Iraq, foes by proxy war in Yemen. It’s all so muddled right now.

For sure, the Iranians are not to be trusted. I don’t think they will comply with the terms of the proposed agreement. When they don’t, I also don’t trust that there will be any real consequences from our end.

JoeC
JoeC
9 years ago

If the negotiated deal falls apart and we (the USA) are perceived as the ones responsible for its failure, I see a series of worse outcomes.

* The other P5+1 countries who participated in making this deal will accuse us (the USA) and Israel of being the greater obstacles to peace.

* They (the other P5+1 countries) and most other countries will have less incentive to maintain the sanctions.

* With effectively weaker sanctions, more partners AND no inspections, Iran has less deterrence to continuing their nuclear weapons program and will likely accelerate it.

* Israel feels the need to take military action against Iran sooner than they would have.

* We are drawn into that in support of Israel but with likely almost no other country willing to support us because they hold us responsible.

With the deal, there is a chance to change course. Without the deal, we seem to be on an inevitable course to the bombing and a worsening U.S. image in the world.

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