Robert Kaplan Comments on the Coming Collapse of the Kim Jong-un Regime

In a interview in the Diplomat, writer Robert Kaplan seems pretty sure that it is only a matter of time before the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime happens:

Right. That’s the opportunity, the moment of surprise. Another element and not even a surprise is the moment the North Korean regime collapses. When Kim Jong-un is assassinated by somebody in his inner circle or something. That would be like a wreck; like implosion and chaos. That’s not a surprise but a Chinese nightmare for years already. They have almost resigned to have in such moment two million or so refugees on the North Korean border. I think North Korea, ethnic unrest, continued unexpected turbulence in their own economy, and Japan or Vietnam actually starting a conflict which I don’t think they will do. Because when you start a conflict with China you have to know how you are going to finish it. Or you have to at least have a plan. If you start a conflict with China, it gets really messy how it’s going to end.  [The Diplomat]

Regime collapse is always possible with the North Koreans, but you have to figure that conditions in the country right now are no where near as bad as the famine years of the mid-90s and the then Kim Jong-il regime was able to survive that.  That is why I am not considering the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime in the near term inevitable, but over the long term I don’t see it lasting.  I think if anything causes it to collapse would be an outside event not an internal event.  Possibly the economic collapse of China or internal conflict with in China years from now that spreads to North Korea.  Or North Korea gets caught in a war between China and the rest of Asia.  Considering Kim Jong-un’s young age I don’t see him living out his elderly years as the ruler of North Korea with all the change that could possibly happen in the coming decades in Asia that will undoubtedly affect North Korea as well.  .