Analysts Predict October 2015 for Next North Korean Rocket Launch

It looks like the next North Korean provocation cycle will occur in October if these analysts are correct:

Construction to upgrade North Korea’s main rocket launch site now appears complete amid expectations in rival South Korea that a launch could take place in October, a U.S. research institute said Tuesday.

South Korean officials are predicting the North will mark the upcoming 70th anniversary of the ruling communist party with a “strategic provocation” – possibly a blastoff from the west coast site of Sohae from where Pyongyang launched its first rocket into space in December 2012, drawing international condemnation.

The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies says commercial satellite imagery taken July 21 shows Pyongyang has made quick work since spring of constructing a support building on the launch pad where rockets would be prepared. It has also apparently completed a moveable structure on rails, several stories high, that would be used to shift rockets or rocket stages to the launch tower.   (……………)

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency last week cited unnamed government sources as saying that North Korea has almost completed modifications at Sohae, including an extended launch tower, and that it would be used to fire a long-range missile bigger than the rocket launched three years ago. This would mark the Oct. 10 anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

“I’m sure we’ll have a grand celebration,” North Korean Ambassador to the United Nations, Jang Il Hun, told reporters Tuesday in response to a question about a possible missile test for the anniversary. He added, “We are free to do whatever we want.”  [Associated Press]

This would actually be a fitting tribute for the Kim regime’s 70th anniversary commemoration because Kim Jong-un has been very diligent in associating himself with the nation’s space program.  Kim Jong-un does not have the military or governmental credentials of his grandfather or father, but I believe he is trying to make his own mark as the person advancing North Korea’s technological prowess, be it smartphones, expanding intranet access, submarine technology, nuclear technology, and most importantly the nation’s space program.