Casualties Drop in Iraq, Is this A Sign of Success?

Some would say this is a sign of success in Iraq:

Deaths among American forces and Iraqi civilians fell dramatically last month to their lowest levels in more than a year, according to figures compiled by the U.S. military, the Iraqi government and The Associated Press.

The decline signaled a U.S. success in bringing down violence in Baghdad and surrounding regions since Washington completed its infusion of 30,000 more troops on June 15.

A total of 64 American forces died in September — the lowest monthly toll since July 2006.  [Steven Hurst, AP]

Just a few months ago critics were claiming the surge was a failure due to increased casualty rates.  I never jumped on that bandwagon just like I’m not jumping on this one. I never felt that US casualties are a big dynamic of success because if this is a sign of success than the military should just keep everyone on post and then the military would have great success in regards to casualties. The fact of the matter is that casualties fluctuate according to the amount of people on the ground and the operations going on.  The surge brought in more soldiers doing offensive operations which is why the casualties increased.  The casualties dropped because the success of the offensive operations in a number of areas like Ramadi has created a sustainable peace.  This is not true in every area US forces are now operating and offensive operations are still on going. 

I expect casualties to increase probably early next year when I suspect US forces will have to take on the Shiite militias namely the Mahdi Army.  Right now the US military is mopping up Al Qaeda and establishing indigenous security forces.  I don’t know, but I suspect these operations against Al Qaeda will continue through December.  After December I fully expect operations against the Shiite militias will begin because major Sunni militias such as the 1920’s Revolution Brigade that are currently working with US forces will never reconcile or disarm until the Shiite militias are crushed.  Just think if you were a Sunni would you want to disarm and reconcile with the ruling Shiite government when your rival militias are still armed and can easily drive up the highway and kill you?  There will never be reconciliation as long as Shia militias are allowed to operate freely.  A confrontation with  the militias is coming and thus casualties will rise and you can expect the usual suspects will come out and claim it is a sign of the US military’s eminent failure. 

Here is a better dynamic of success to measure success in Iraq with:

The decline in Iraqi civilian deaths was even more dramatic, falling from 1,975 in August to at least 988 last month, a decline of 50 percent, according to an AP tally. The civilian death toll has not been so low since June 2006, when 847 Iraqis died.

This dynamic is a way to determine the quality of security of the local population.  Obviously less civilians are being killed when sustainable peace is being established in various sectors.  Something else to keep in mind is that often times killings that get trumpeted by the media as "sectarian violence" is actually every day crime.  Iraq has plenty of murderers, rapists, and thieves just like America and it is easier for them to get away with their crimes in Iraq when the local police force in many areas is not competent.

Another thing to keep in mind in regards to civilian casualties are the massive truck bomb killings.  Just think if the truck bombings in the remote Yazidi area of Iraq had been intercepted?  That bombing killed over 500 people and would have made the August civilian death toll much lower.  However, Al Qaeda was doing everything they could in August to kill as many civilians as possible before General Petraeus’ report to Congress.  Thus Al Qaeda began targeting remote farming areas that probably have never even seen an American presence before in order to simply kill people to keep the civilian death toll high and the media reporting it. 

There is plenty of nuance and analysis that needs to be done in regards to casualties however critics and supporters tend to do little of this and take anything as gospel that confirms what they already believe.