After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine opinions from experts in Germany I find to be very suspect:
Angela Kane, vice president of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna and former U.N. under-secretary-general for management and high representative for disarmament, presented a view about the evolving geopolitical landscape in East Asia that is very different from others.
Korea Times
Refuting the popular belief that a new Cold War-like confrontation between two sides ― South Korea, the United States and Japan on one side and China, Russia and North Korea on the other ― has been in the making after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, Kane claims China won’t be tempted to make an enemy of the United States or any other countries.
Like other countries, she said, China is driven by trade interests and will refrain from doing anything that may hurt its economic gains in foreign markets.
The German expert visited Korea to join the 2022 DMZ Forum held last Friday in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. Moon Chung-in, chairman of Sejong Institute think tank, moderated the session in which Kane participated.
You can read more at the link, but the economic ties that Russia had with Germany and the rest of Europe did not stop it from invading Ukraine. Likewise economic ties are not going to stop China from invading Taiwan once they have the ability to military do so and feel the diplomatic and economic consequences of an invasion can be effectively endured.
Here is the latest on the THAAD issue between China and South Korea:
China’s top legislator made an unprecedented visit to Seoul last week, where they confirmed their differences on South Korea’s deployment of the US-made missile defense system that Beijing opposes.
Li Zhanshu, Beijing’s third-highest-ranking official and chief of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, made an unprecedented two-day trip to Seoul from Thursday, as South Korea has embarked on work to normalize operations of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system.
Paying a courtesy visit to South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and also meeting with top officials including his Korean counterpart Kim Jin-pyo, the National Assembly speaker, Li discussed a range of topics, including the operation of THAAD.
When Li visited on Friday, Yoon told Li that South Korea and China must “closely communicate” so that THAAD does not become a “hurdle” to bilateral relations.
Li also agreed on the need for improvement in communication to address the “sensitive” issue, implicitly referring to the THAAD issue. (…….)
Over Li’s visit to Seoul and his meeting with Yoon, China’s state-operated English news outlet Global Times cited analysts to report that Seoul appears to have “received and better understood Beijing’s position on some sensitive issues, and that following the US is not completely in South Korea’s national interests.”
In the meeting with Li, Yoon also delivered his invitation for Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul, saying that Xi’s visit would be an “important sign” that opens the door to the next 30 years of their bilateral relationship.
South Korea and China celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations this year.
With the ongoing THAAD issue, however, it is highly unlikely for Xi to visit Korea anytime soon, unless there is a clear benefit for China to gain, Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, told The Korea Herald.
Korea Herald
You can read more at the link, but the Chinese hypocrisy over THAAD continues to be so obvious. They continue to be against the THAAD system in the ROK because they claim it is against Chinese security interests while completely ignoring ROK security interests. If it wasn’t for the Chinese backing of their client state North Korea that has allowed them to pursue missiles and nuclear weapons to threaten the ROK, the deployment of THAAD to South Korea would not be necessary in the first place.
It seems to me that President Biden is making it pretty clear that the U.S. will defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China:
President Joe Biden on Sunday for the second time this year said U.S. troops would help defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, further casting doubt on the United States’ policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding the island democracy.
Biden in an interview broadcast on CBS’ “60 Minutes” said the U.S. remains committed to the “One China” policy that acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan but considers the island’s status unresolved.
However, in the case of an “unprecedented attack,” U.S. troops would intervene, the president said.
An unnamed White House spokesman later said official U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan has not changed, CNBC reported Monday.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
The President of the think tank, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Dr. Choi Kang has an op-ed in the Chosun Ilbo advocating for using the Three No’s policy to pressure China to reign in North Korea’s nuclear testing:
If necessary, we could officially declare that South Korea is no longer bound by the ‘THAAD Three No’s’ given North Korea’s repeated nuclear and missile threats. If North Korea conducts another nuclear or missile test in the future, it could constitute a just cause for renouncing the ‘THAAD Three No’s.’ Given China has failed to prevent North Korea from advancing its nuclear capabilities, its rationale for THAAD opposition is weakened.
Recently, President Xi Jinping said that “those who play with fire will eventually get burned.” Instead of trying to impose the ‘THAAD Three No’s’ on South Korea, China should sternly warn North Korea, which has played with fire for the past 16 years since its first nuclear test in 2006.
Asan Institute
You can read more at the link.
