Category: China

People definitely need to get out of their minds that a war with China in defense of Taiwan will be anything like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Thousands could die in a single strike on a U.S. aircraft carrier or other ships and that is what this war game is demonstrating:

The game umpires include two doctoral students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Marine captain and Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT’s Center for International Studies and author of five books and numerous articles on China’s military power. Overseeing the project is Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior advisor and retired Marine colonel.

Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others.

Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces. (……)

On the first U.S. turn, the players lost an entire aircraft carrier, though it was on the board from the “baseline” opening and not that team’s choice to have it where it was located. In a version earlier in the week, the United States lost 700 aircraft over the three-week battle.

None of these provided a pretty outcome, but in each of the versions, the United States prevailed, Cancian said.

Army Times

You can read more at the link, but these war games are showing the U.S. can win in the near term such conflict at great cost, however 10 years from now would that still be the case?

The Chinese continue to spew their anti-THAAD propaganda for their useful idiots to continue to champion; fortunately the ROK government continues to dismiss it:

South Korea’s defense minister said, Thursday, a U.S. anti-missile shield, currently deployed on the Korean Peninsula, cannot operate to Washington’s advantage, rejecting China’s claim that the system’s radar can spy on its military maneuvers and undermine its security interests.

In addition, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup vowed to speed up efforts to transform the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) base in South Korea into a permanent structure. 

Since the establishment of the base in 2017 at a local golf course, hundreds of U.S. and South Korean service members stationed there have been using shipping containers and an old golf clubhouse, raising concerns over their poor living conditions. 

The deployment of the THAAD battery has emerged as a hot-button issue between Seoul and Beijing, as evidenced by their foreign ministerial meeting, Tuesday, where it topped the agenda. 

“The THAAD issue has to do with our security and sovereignty and China’s assertion is not acceptable,” Lee said during a press conference at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul. 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the Chinese hypocrisy over THAAD continues to be so obvious. They continue to be against the THAAD system in the ROK because they claim it is against Chinese security interests while completely ignoring ROK security interests.  If it wasn’t for the Chinese backing of their client state North Korea that has allowed them to pursue missiles and nuclear weapons to threaten the ROK, the deployment of THAAD to South Korea would not be necessary in the first place.

I think this makes clear that something I said before wasn’t going to happen, is in fact not going to happen; South Korea is not getting a second THAAD battery:

The top diplomats of South Korea and China agreed during their talks Tuesday that disputes over the issue of an advanced U.S. missile defense system should no longer hamper Seoul-Beijing relations, a South Korean official said.

In his first trip to China since taking office in May, Foreign Minister Park Jin held the meeting with his counterpart, Wang Yi, in the eastern port city of Qingdao.

It was widely viewed as crucial in setting the tone for Seoul-Beijing relations under the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration.

During the talks, both Park and Wang “clearly expressed their positions on THAAD, and at the same time, they shared the same view that the matter should not be an obstacle to the development of South Korea-China relations, going forward,” the official told reporters on the customary condition of anonymity.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

If anyone was wondering why President Yoon snubbed Nancy Pelosi during her visit to South Korea, here is the reason:

The top South Korean and Chinese diplomats pledged Thursday to develop closer relations and maintain stable industrial supply chains at a time of deepening rivalry between Beijing and Washington.

South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally, is struggling to strike a balance between Washington and the increasingly assertive foreign policy of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government. U.S.-Chinese conflict over Taiwan has added to complications for governments that want amicable ties with both sides.

Foreign Ministers Park Jin and Wang Yi, in separate statements, called for the development of relations based on successful three-decade-old commercial ties. They were meeting in the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

This could have gone bad very easily if one of these missiles had a malfunction and hit Taiwanese territory forcing them to respond in some way:

China fired multiple missiles toward waters near northeastern and southwestern Taiwan on Thursday, the island’s Defense Ministry said, as Beijing makes good on its promise that Taipei will pay a price for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement that multiple missiles had been fired into the sea off the eastern part of Taiwan. It said all the missiles hit their target accurately.

“The entire live-fire training mission has been successfully completed and the relevant air and sea area control is now lifted,” China’s statement said. Earlier, the Eastern Theater Command said it had conducted long-range, live-fire training in the Taiwan Strait, state broadcaster CCTV reported, as part of planned military exercises around the island.

Taiwan reported Chinese long-range rockets had fallen near its islands of Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are in the Taiwan Strait, but located closer to the mainland than the main island of Taiwan. It later said a total of 11 Dongfeng (DF) missiles were fired to the waters north, south and east of the island between 1:56 p.m. and 4 p.m. local time (from 1:56 a.m. ET to 4 a.m. ET) on Thursday. 

The Chinese missiles flew over Taiwan Island for the first time, a Chinese military expert said on state television channel CCTV on Thursday, representing a major escalation of China’s military intimidation against Taiwan.

CNN

According to Taiwan the missiles were flying exoatmospheric and thus was not a threat to Taiwan:

The conventional missiles flew over airspace covered by Taiwanese defense missiles, said Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing.

“We hit the targets under the observation of US Aegis combat system, which means the Chinese military has solved the difficulties of hitting long-range targets on waters,” Meng said on CCTV.

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said in a statement late Thursday night that the trajectory of the missiles was above the atmosphere and therefore posed no risk to Taiwan.

“Using the surveillance and reconnaissance systems, our military can accurately calculate the trajectory of the Dong Feng-series missiles fired by the Chinese Communist Party,” it said.

You can read more at the link, but fortunately the Taiwanese are keeping a cool head about this and not responding with test firing missiles back towards China in response.

Here is what House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had to say during her visit to Taiwan:

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan Tuesday evening, marking a significant show of support for Taiwan despite China’s threats of retaliation over the visit.

Pelosi’s stop in Taipei is the first time that a US House speaker has visited Taiwan in 25 years. Her trip comes at a low point in US-China relations and despite warnings from the Biden administration against a stop in Taiwan. 

The California Democrat is leading a congressional delegation on a tour in Asia this week, which includes stops in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. Although not included in her official itinerary, expectations that she was planning a visit to Taiwan have fuelled US-China tensions since reports of a potential trip emerged last month.

In a statement after landing, Pelosi and the congressional delegation that accompanied her said the visit “honors America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.

Pelosi, a forthright critic of Beijing, has previously said it is important for the US to show support for Taiwan. 

CNN

Here is China’s response to the visit:

China has lashed out at the visit. In a statement following Pelosi’s arrival, China’s Foreign Ministry said the trip would have a “severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations.”

“China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the US Speaker’s visit,” the statement said. 

A spokesman for China’s Ministry of Defense said the People’s Liberation Army was “on high alert” and would launch “a series of targeted military operations to counteract the situation, resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely thwart the interference of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist schemes.”

You can read more at the link, but the Chinese military says it will conduct air and sea exercises and live fires in the Taiwan straight in response. Has there ever been a military more scared of a 82 year old woman?

The Chinese are making threats against South Korea again:

South Korea must “act prudently” and preserve the status quo rather than deploy a second U.S.-made missile defense system, a Chinese diplomat said Wednesday on Twitter.

The United States, not South Korea, has a “malicious intention to deliberately undermine” Beijing’s security by deploying another Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, system in South Korea, Liu Xiaoming, China’s special envoy to the two Koreas, said in a tweet.

Stars & Stripes

First of all the U.S. has never offered to deploy a 2nd THAAD battery to South Korea. These batteries are very limited and it is doubtful the U.S. would want two of them on the peninsula at the same time. Secondly the Yoon administration during the campaign said they wanted South Korea to purchase its own THAAD battery.

However, they have already backtracked on this because a THAAD is not something you just go to a car dealership and buy. This is a multi-year long acquisitions process to purchase, build the battery, and train personnel for billions of dollars.  This acquisition would take longer than the 5 years Yoon has in office and likely not worth the political capital to make it happen.