It looks like the North Koreans decided to fire something to keep tensions high while they figure out what went wrong with their recent ICBM test:
North Korea on Sunday fired four suspected shots from its multiple rocket launchers into the Yellow Sea, South Korean military officials said, the latest show of force that could heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea’s National Security Council (NSC) held an emergency vice-ministerial meeting over the four shots that fell into the western waters during a span of an hour from 7:20 a.m. from an unspecified location in South Pyongan Province, according to officials.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
“Creative” is likely a code word for how do we get around sanctions and send free goodies to the Kim regime to behave?:
South Korea will have in-depth consultations with the United States and Japan in the upcoming three-way ministerial talks to explore “creative” ways of engagement with North Korea, Seoul officials said Tuesday.
The foreign ministry reaffirmed its commitment to diplomacy with Pyongyang, as South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong is set to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Hawaii on Saturday following the North’s recent missile tests.
“In light of the meeting, South Korea and U.S., as well as Japan, plan to have in-depth consultations on creative and various ways to engage with North Korea,” ministry spokesperson Choi Young-sam said in a press briefing.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
North Korea continues its usual playbook of provocations to influence potential negotiations:
The Moon Jae-in government is making last-ditch efforts for progress on its inter-Korean peace drive before President Moon’s term ends in about five months, but Pyongyang is remaining unresponsive to Seoul’s continued calls for dialogue.
Rather, North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Wednesday morning, marking this year’s first missile launch. This launch coincided with Moon’s attendance at a groundbreaking ceremony for the railroad construction to connect Gangneung and Jejin of Gangwon Province, a part of the inter-Korean railroad connection project based upon the 2018 Panmunjeom Declaration adopted by Moon and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un.
According to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea fired a projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile at around 8:10 a.m. into the sea off its east coast from Jagang Province. The JCS said the South Korean and U.S. militaries are currently analyzing details of the missile launch but are yet to provide further details such as range or speed of the missile. (……)Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said Pyongyang seemed to be assured that its missile launch would not bring strong opposition from China, while the Olympics event itself has failed to draw big attention internationally amid the COVID-19 pandemic situation.
“The missile launch could also be used as a bargaining chip when the North engages in negotiations with the South’s next government after the South elects a new president in March,” Shin said. “There have been many signs of economic hardships in the North including the news that Kim Jong-un gave fish to Pyongyang residents as presents. In that respect, the missile launch is also aimed at strengthening internal solidarity among the people of North Korea.”
Korea Times
You can read more at the link, but with the so called diplomatic boycott going on with the Beijing Olympics the CCP is likely has less reservations with North Korea conducting launches before the Olympics.
You can read more about the KAL 858 bombing from my DMZ Flashpoints article.
I am concerned that with the Biden administration’s falling approval ratings that they would agree to a Korean War Peace Treaty just to get an easy foreign policy victory. The temptation of a Nobel Peace Prize might be enough to get the them to agree to it. The below comments from the Unification Minister has me worried that the Moon administration has been successful in getting the Biden administration to agree to the peace treaty:
Discussions over an end-of-war declaration with North Korea will soon come to a close, a South Korean government official said.
The country’s Ministry of Unification chief, Lee In-young, made the remarks during an academic conference at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies’ campus in Seoul on Friday.
The Unification Minister said Seoul and Washington, D.C., “have been holding deep discussions very seriously” regarding a declaration to formally end the war, adding that it “is coming to a finish to some degree.”
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link, but a peace treaty is a bad idea for a variety of reasons I have explained before.
General Abrams and Admiral Harris are both in line with what I have been saying for years about North Korea and the Moon administration’s attempts to push through a Korean War peace treaty:
The former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and the retired top commander for U.S. forces in the region said they are cautious about a formal declaration to end the Korean War, a plan championed by the South Korean president as his tenure nears its end.
Former ambassador Harry Harris, a retired admiral who once led U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Pacific Fleet, and retired Army Gen. Robert Abrams, the former commander of U.S. Forces Korea, delivered their remarks Wednesday at a panel discussion hosted by The Korea Society in New York.
Harris expressed skepticism over a formal end-of-war declaration and suggested the results may fall short. He urged listeners to ask themselves “what will change the day after that declaration is signed?” (………)
“We must not relax sanctions or reduce joint military exercises just to get North Korea to come to the negotiating table,” he said. “This is a tried and true road to failure.” (…………)
Abrams warned that an end-of-war declaration would be followed by calls to abolish the U.N. Command, the U.S.-led international body that defends South Korea. Such a move, he said, would prompt the dissolution of “the only internationally recognized legal instrument that has prevented the resumption of hostilities.”
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link, but Admiral Harris and General Abrams both understands that the North Koreans and the Korean left want this peace treaty in order to question the legitimacy of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. If there is peace why are U.S. troops and by extension the UN Command needed? If the Kim regimes wants a peace treaty they should agree to actions that actually makes it look like they want peace. For example removing all their artillery off of the DMZ would show the seriousness of their peace overtures. If they want peace why do they need artillery to target Seoul and other metropolitan areas?
