Category: Inter-Korean Issues

It looks like President Elect Yoon is setting the prelude to withdrawing from the Inter-Korean Military Agreement since North Korea is refusing to follow it:

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday that North Korea’s recent artillery firing was a violation of an inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement.

Yoon made the remark during a meeting with members of his transition team, two days after South Korea’s military said North Korea fired four shots from multiple rocket launchers into the Yellow Sea.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

You don’t need to be an analyst to predict that the Kim regime is going to test and see what they can get away with from the incoming Yoon administration. This is the standard playbook from the Kim regime:

Amid signs of North Korea abandoning its self-restraint in regards to testing long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol’s pledge to take a tougher stance and bolster South Korea’s deterrence against its northern neighbor ― in close cooperation with the United States ― is likely to prolong the period of non-engagement between the two Koreas under his new administration.

Furthermore, Yoon has filled the foreign policy subcommittee of his transition team with officials from the former Lee Myung-bak government, who pursued confrontational policies that almost pushed the two Koreas to the brink of war. 

With the new conservative administration to be inaugurated in May, Pyongyang is likely to test how much bandwidth the Yoon administration will allow in dealing with its provocative actions, and diplomatic observers say how the new government responds to this initial saber-rattling will set the tone for inter-Korean interactions for the next five years.

“Relations between the two Koreas once President-elect Yoon takes office will entirely depend on Pyongyang,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.

“If North Korea goes down the test route, then I would expect the Yoon government to focus on deterrence, sanctions and denunciation of Pyongyang’s human rights abuses above all. This would strain relations,” he said.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the North Koreans decided to fire something to keep tensions high while they figure out what went wrong with their recent ICBM test:

North Korea on Sunday fired four suspected shots from its multiple rocket launchers into the Yellow Sea, South Korean military officials said, the latest show of force that could heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea’s National Security Council (NSC) held an emergency vice-ministerial meeting over the four shots that fell into the western waters during a span of an hour from 7:20 a.m. from an unspecified location in South Pyongan Province, according to officials.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

“Creative” is likely a code word for how do we get around sanctions and send free goodies to the Kim regime to behave?:

South Korea will have in-depth consultations with the United States and Japan in the upcoming three-way ministerial talks to explore “creative” ways of engagement with North Korea, Seoul officials said Tuesday.

The foreign ministry reaffirmed its commitment to diplomacy with Pyongyang, as South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong is set to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Hawaii on Saturday following the North’s recent missile tests.

“In light of the meeting, South Korea and U.S., as well as Japan, plan to have in-depth consultations on creative and various ways to engage with North Korea,” ministry spokesperson Choi Young-sam said in a press briefing.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

North Korea continues its usual playbook of provocations to influence potential negotiations:

The Moon Jae-in government is making last-ditch efforts for progress on its inter-Korean peace drive before President Moon’s term ends in about five months, but Pyongyang is remaining unresponsive to Seoul’s continued calls for dialogue. 

Rather, North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Wednesday morning, marking this year’s first missile launch. This launch coincided with Moon’s attendance at a groundbreaking ceremony for the railroad construction to connect Gangneung and Jejin of Gangwon Province, a part of the inter-Korean railroad connection project based upon the 2018 Panmunjeom Declaration adopted by Moon and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un.

According to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea fired a projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile at around 8:10 a.m. into the sea off its east coast from Jagang Province. The JCS said the South Korean and U.S. militaries are currently analyzing details of the missile launch but are yet to provide further details such as range or speed of the missile.  (……)

Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said Pyongyang seemed to be assured that its missile launch would not bring strong opposition from China, while the Olympics event itself has failed to draw big attention internationally amid the COVID-19 pandemic situation.

“The missile launch could also be used as a bargaining chip when the North engages in negotiations with the South’s next government after the South elects a new president in March,” Shin said. “There have been many signs of economic hardships in the North including the news that Kim Jong-un gave fish to Pyongyang residents as presents. In that respect, the missile launch is also aimed at strengthening internal solidarity among the people of North Korea.” 

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but with the so called diplomatic boycott going on with the Beijing Olympics the CCP is likely has less reservations with North Korea conducting launches before the Olympics.

You can read more about the KAL 858 bombing from my DMZ Flashpoints article.