Category: Inter-Korean Issues

Moon Administration Pushing Kaesong Industrial Park and Kumgang Tours on Trump Administration

| March 6, 2019

As Professor B.R. Myers predicted, the Moon administration is quickly pushing the Kaesong Industrial Park and Mt. Kumgang tours on the Trump administration as some kind of “ethnic exemption” to sanctions:

South Korea will talk to the United States about preparatory work for the future resumption of two key inter-Korean economic projects and about waiving sanctions on North Korea if necessary, Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon said Tuesday.
Cho made the remarks a day after he reported to President Moon Jae-in that the government will discuss with the U.S. ways to resume a long-suspended tour program to the North’s Mount Kumgang and reopen an industrial complex in the North’s border city of Kaesong.
South Korea is considering these measures as part of efforts to keep the dialogue momentum alive and create better conditions for negotiations after last week’s breakdown of the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

President Moon Replaces “Peace Regime” with “Peninsular Regime” In Independence Day Remarks

| March 3, 2019

Notice how President Moon is not using the term “peace regime” like he usually does, he now is saying “peninsular regime”. Is he signaling that he wants his confederation with North Korea without an agreed upon peace treaty between the US and North Korea?:

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in laid out his vision for a “new Korean Peninsula regime” Friday, calling it a community for peaceful and economic cooperation that breaks with the country’s checkered history of conflict and ideological divide.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the centennial anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement against Japanese colonial rule, Moon said that the regime will create a peaceful order in the coming century in which “we will take on a leading role.” (…..)

Moon said the new peninsula regime will be a new community of economic cooperation. For this, he said his government will consult with the U.S. on ways to resume stalled tours to Mount Kumgang on the North’s east coast and the operation of the joint industrial complex in the North’s border city of Kaesong.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but I recommend reading my prior posting on Moon’s confederation idea with North Korea.

It will be interesting to see what the US reaction would be if Moon decides to unilaterally break sanctions by restarting the tourism project or the Kaesong Industrial Park. Moon is probably under enormous pressure from North Korea now to do something to relieve sanctions since the 2nd Trump-Kim Summit failed to do so.

North Korea Slows Down Military Cooperation with South Korea

| February 20, 2019

It looks like the North Korean military is now dragging their feet in regards to cooperation with the ROK military:

 South and North Korea appear to have struggled to move forward their 2018 military accord aimed at reducing tensions and building trust amid a lack of progress in denuclearization and a focus on a second summit between Washington and Pyongyang, observers said Tuesday.
Since the beginning of this year, the two Koreas have held few talks over the implementation of the accord, in stark contrast to fast progress in the first three months after their defense chiefs signed it in September.
Pyongyang has recently been preoccupied with preparations for the second summit between leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled to take place on Feb. 27-28 in Hanoi, Vietnam.
If the summit produces tangible results, it could help facilitate the implementation of the military agreement and other peace-building measures on the peninsula.
“This year, inter-Korean consultations have rarely been held, though there have been exchanges of documents (about the accord),” a government source said on condition of anonymity.

Yonhap

It appears the North Korean military did what they had to do to create the perception of progress. They are likely not going to do much more until they get what they want such as a peace treaty and sanctions dropped.

South Korea Pushing Forward with Bid to Host 2032 Olympics with North Korea

| February 13, 2019

This would be the first Olympic Games hosted by a brutal dictator since 1936 when Nazi Germany and Adolf Hitler hosted the games. If the Koreans can hold off until the 2036 Olympics Games they can come up with a slogan celebrating 100 years since the last dictator hosted the games:

Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon (R) and Korean Sport & Olympic Committee (KSOC) Vice President Kim Young-chae pose with a document appointing Seoul as the South Korean candidate city for a joint 2032 Summer Olympics bid with North Korea after a KSOC vote at the Jincheon National Training Center in Jincheon, 90 kilometers south of Seoul, on Feb. 11, 2019.

Seoul was selected Monday as the South Korean candidate city for a joint Olympic bid with North Korea.
The Korean Sport & Olympic Committee (KSOC) said Seoul was chosen over Busan as the candidate city for the 2032 Summer Games at its general assembly at the National Training Center in Jincheon, North Chungcheong Province. Seoul earned 34 out of 49 votes from KSOC members.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

South Korea’s Plans to Send Tamiflu to North Korea Has Been Delayed

| February 9, 2019

As I have said before why can’t a country that can afford a nuclear weapons program buy its own Tamiflu?:

South Korea has no problem in drawing global cooperation for its planned delivery of antiviral medication to North Korea, a unification ministry official said Thursday.
The government promised to send 200,000 doses of Tamiflu to North Korea via a land route over their western border, but delivery has been repeatedly put off as Seoul says more time is needed for relevant preparations.
Speculation arose that Washington’s discomfort with the plan’s potential undermining of a global sanctions regime against Pyongyang might be behind the prolonged delay.

Yonhap

The hesitation from Washington is probably because they realize the Tamiflu is likely going to be sold on the blackmarket for millions as yet another illicit Kim regime money making operation to avoid sanctions.

Korean War Peace Treaty and Humanitarian Aid Supposedly Offered for Denuclearization

| January 21, 2019

If the ROK Foreign Minister is to believed it appears the US will be offering a peace treaty and humanitarian aid in return for denuclearization steps:

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha speaks during a press briefing at the ministry building, Wednesday. / Yonhap

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha referred to ending the Korean War, establishing a communication channel between North Korea and the U.S., and humanitarian aid as possible measures that Washington could offer Pyongyang for taking denuclearization steps.

“Various options are being discussed as corresponding measures,” Kang told reporters in a briefing at the foreign ministry, Wednesday.

However, on resuming operations at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) or tours to Mount Geumgang, which had drawn attention as possible reciprocal measures, Kang said such these “were not at a stage of being reviewed.”

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but as I have said before a Korean War peace treaty is something that North Korea has long sought as a way to end the presence of US troops in South Korea. If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon has been saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty. 

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.